Ethereum's price has dropped into the red zone along with most of the top 10 tokens. As of the time of writing, ETH is down more than 2%, trading slightly below $3,300.
Long-term analysis: nearing the end of the cycle
From Ethereum's long-term chart, the market follows the Elliott Wave pattern, which helps analyze market sentiment. Although the analysis remains somewhat subjective, Fibonacci levels and support areas add objectivity.
Ethereum is currently in an upward trend and may soon complete a larger cycle. Since the low point in 2018, Ethereum has formed Waves 1, 2, 3, and 4, and is now likely approaching Wave 5, which indicates that the trend may peak. However, compared to the peak in 2021, a higher high still needs to be formed.
Momentum weakening: fatigue signals
Compared to previous fluctuations, the recent price movements show weaker momentum. The price fluctuations of Wave 1 and Wave 3 were more intense, but Wave 5 shows signs of weakening intensity, which is typical at the end of a cycle. This may indicate that the bull market is entering its final phase, making it increasingly difficult to track and trade Ethereum, with rising risk levels.
Correction phase: focus on support area
Ethereum's price is still in a correction phase and may be forming the second wave in an ABC structure. As long as the support level between $2,470 and $3,167 remains intact, there is still a possibility for price to rise. The ideal target for this rebound is $3,572.
Bearish shift: key support level breakdown
However, if Ethereum's price breaks below the support area of $2,470, the outlook will turn bearish. Currently, the market is still in a correction phase, but a breakout above key resistance levels (especially between $3,415 and $3,648) will confirm whether a more bullish trend is forming.
