Under the dual pressures of global bond market turmoil and uncertain economic prospects, the cryptocurrency market has seen a significant pullback for the second consecutive day. After Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark, it continued its downward trend today (9), briefly dropping below $93,000, erasing almost all gains since the beginning of the year. As of the time of writing, it has recovered to around $93,000.
This trend is closely related to the strong economic data released by the U.S., including a surge in job vacancies and manufacturing performance exceeding expectations. This data further reinforces Powell's view that aggressive interest rate cuts may not be necessary this year to effectively control inflation.
The minutes from today's Federal Reserve meeting further indicate that officials are generally willing to maintain interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming meeting at the end of this month. As a result, the market has adjusted its expectations for the Fed's future monetary policy, putting pressure on risk assets.
Additionally, the $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road being available for sale in the market has also caused a significant impact.
Can a short-term rebound in Bitcoin be expected?
Today's drop has brought Bitcoin's price back to the lower edge of the consolidation range since the end of November last year. However, Bitcoin is still expected to rebound from the lows in the short term and may continue to oscillate within the range until the pressure is fully digested, after which there will be a chance to create new highs.
But this does not mean the market is entirely bearish. The current situation is challenging, but remember that significant changes are on the way! The pullback is just a temporary breather; Trump's inauguration on January 20 will bring optimism to the market, and this major positive news is here. The market is also expected to spark a new wave of upward momentum.
Recently, we are looking at the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday, as well as the Fed's interest rate decision meeting at the end of the month. These events will be key catalysts affecting Bitcoin's trend.
Moreover, it was mentioned in yesterday's technical analysis that the $92,000 level still has support. If the price falls below $100,000 again, we should see this $92,000 level, as the range of this box's fluctuations is quite evident. If it fails to break through the upper level, it will likely retrace to the lower support level. Therefore, if the lower support can hold again, there is still a chance to test the upper resistance and possibly rise above $100,000 again.
Is it now a good time to buy in?
The current market will adjust but may still rebound, so it's time to prepare for buying in batches.
Since Bitcoin broke above $100,000 after the November 5 elections, it has not effectively fallen below $90,000. Although this level is not impenetrable, countless shorts have faced fierce resistance from bulls here. A rebound to $96,000-$97,000, if followed by a breakout past $98,200, will push it back towards $100,000. Thus, the $93,300-$92,000 range remains a short-term buying zone.
However, be aware that this week there are still non-farm data, unemployment rates, etc. If conditions favor multiple interest rate cuts, then prices will rise; if they are unfavorable for continued rate cuts, then the market will likely continue to decline. Ultimately, it depends on whether Friday's data can lead to a market reversal.
The current market is not yet stable. When buying altcoins, we should try to choose those with higher market capitalization for our investments. For a more stable option, prioritize Ethereum, BNB, and SOL. Other altcoins may have larger volatility. Additionally, make sure to strictly manage your take-profit and stop-loss levels!
Selling coins from Silk Road, Trump’s statements, and expectations for interest rate cuts are all just bumps on the road to reaching $130,000 and $150,000. Invest with a long-term mindset, and no one can cut you off! Believe in this: Everything that happens must benefit me. This is how it has been for these years. Don't panic!
