As the crypto market rapidly grows, the diffusion effect of technological revolution gradually manifests. Fidelity's digital asset company points out in a research report titled Look Ahead that 2025 could be a significant turning point for digital assets moving from the periphery to the mainstream.
(Franklin Templeton releases 2025 Cryptocurrency Trends Outlook: The U.S. may return to being a global innovation hub)
Is it too late to enter the market now?
Digital asset research analyst Matt Hogan writes that 2024 is a crucial year for the digital asset market, with a flourishing of exchange-traded products (ETPs) and optimistic sentiment ahead of the U.S. elections, the crypto market experienced two significant accelerations. However, for many, one question still remains: 'Am I too late?'
(2024 is a bumper year for ETFs, and more crypto ETFs will be launched in 2025)
He cited economist Carlota Perez's theory of technological revolutions, emphasizing that true technological revolutions typically change multiple industries and reshape economic structures. Bitcoin and digital assets may be in the 'diffusion phase' of this theory, a process where technology begins to embed itself in various fields and industries:
We believe that 2025 could be a pivotal year, with many signs indicating that the early stages of widespread diffusion and adoption have already begun.
The similarity between the development of the internet and digital assets
The adoption of innovative technologies is typically non-linear, gradually moving from marginal groups into mainstream society. The evolution of Bitcoin and blockchain technology reflects the early adoption trajectory of the internet, from the initial experimental phase to gradual legitimization and large-scale application:
Currently, we see blockchain technology continually modularizing to adapt to different uses and developing tools that enhance privacy to meet the public demand for data ownership. Although challenges still exist, digital assets have the potential to find a balance between mainstream acceptance and commercialization.
(In-depth understanding: Modular narratives make a comeback! How do settlement layers, execution layers, and aggregation layers create new opportunities?)
The connection between Bitcoin and macroeconomics remains to be observed
Bitcoin is often likened to 'digital gold investment.' Due to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing of monetary policy, increased liquidity may continue to support Bitcoin's price performance. However, as inflation may rise again, Bitcoin's performance in that environment remains to be seen:
Bitcoin and Gold Price Comparison Chart
History shows that gold typically performs well during high inflation periods, and Bitcoin, as a similar asset, may have the same potential.
Prospects for Ethereum L2 Development
Ethereum continues to adopt a scaling-centric roadmap, especially by using L2 technology to reduce transaction costs and improve efficiency. Despite a decline in base network transaction volume, Ethereum maintains its position as the preferred platform for developers.
Facing 2025, Ethereum focuses on improving scalability and network performance, with multiple upgrades including Prague and Electra on the way. Hogan believes these improvements will promote wider adoption of Ethereum, especially in the L2 domain.
(Is 2025 the 'Golden Decade' for Ethereum? The community presents several revolutionary predictions: ETH price may reach $15,000)
Stablecoin regulatory frameworks become crucial
Stablecoins have become one of the main applications of blockchain technology, with uses extending from trading liquidity to global payments and deposit needs. In 2024, the transfer value of stablecoins reached $12 trillion, demonstrating their importance in the global economy. However, a proper regulatory framework may be necessary to truly accelerate stablecoin adoption:
The EU will launch the Market in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) in 2024, which provides users with legal protection through comprehensive stablecoin regulation. Other jurisdictions may also follow suit, promoting further development of stablecoins.
(USDT market cap shrinks due to MiCA coming into effect, Tether chooses to invest rather than sacrifice returns to indirectly participate in the EU market)
DeFi combined with AI becomes a topic again
In 2025, decentralized finance (DeFi) is expected to continue innovating, especially in dedicated blockchain, L2 scaling solutions, and applications combining artificial intelligence (AI). New technologies like Rollups and AI-driven governance tools may further enhance the efficiency and scalability of DeFi.
(Bitwise CEO predicts for 2025, will AI and tokenization technology reshape capital markets?)
Trends of Bitcoin adoption by countries and governments
The launch of Bitcoin spot trading products in 2024 has attracted demand from institutional and retail investors. We predict that in 2025, more countries and governments may begin to follow Bhutan and El Salvador, even the U.S., including Bitcoin in their strategic asset allocation, especially to cope with pressures from high inflation and fiscal deficits:
We expect more countries, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries to seek to allocate funds into Bitcoin, possibly in a secretive and undisclosed manner.
(Bitwise submits 'Bitcoin Standard Company ETF', MicroStrategy, mining companies, and game developers can all be included)
2025: The Beginning of a New Era for Digital Assets
Finally, although the speculative frenzy may have passed, the diffusion and adoption of digital assets seem to be just beginning. Innovations like Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, and DeFi are quietly changing the global economic structure.
Hogan summarizes that the key question now is no longer 'whether to participate' but 'how to actively engage in this transformation':
In 2025, it may mark a milestone in a new era, expected to witness digital assets further embedded in the global economic and technological structure.
This article on the 2025 Digital Asset Outlook Report (Look Ahead) lets Fidelity tell you whether it's still possible to enter the market. First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
