1. Quem está vendendo Bitcoin?
O mercado de criptografia passou por um grande choque recentemente, com as principais criptomoedas, como o Bitcoin, caindo uma após a outra. Muitas pessoas podem perguntar: “Quem está vendendo Bitcoin?” Na verdade, a razão por trás disso não é simples, mas uma variedade de fatores interligados para formar uma “tempestade perfeita”.
Em primeiro lugar, os dados económicos superaram as expectativas, o que colocou uma pressão considerável no mercado. Por exemplo, os dados de vagas de emprego do JOLTS foram significativamente superiores ao esperado, atingindo 8,098 milhões, um máximo em seis meses. Isto mostra que o mercado de trabalho continua forte, prevendo-se que a taxa de desemprego diminua ainda mais e que a criação de emprego se siga. A prosperidade do mercado de trabalho impulsiona frequentemente o crescimento do consumo, o que, por sua vez, promove a tendência geral de crescimento económico. Como resultado, os investidores podem transferir fundos do mercado criptográfico mais arriscado para a economia real relativamente estável, desencadeando uma liquidação em criptomoedas como o Bitcoin.
For example, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data also exceeded expectations, reflecting the expansion of economic activity. As a key component of the economy, the rise in the PMI index of the non-manufacturing sector indicates a strong upward momentum in the economy and a positive outlook for corporate profits. In this case, investors are more inclined to invest funds into the real economy to obtain stable returns rather than risk investing in highly volatile cryptocurrencies.
2. The 'Shadow' of Fed Interest Rate Hike Expectations
In addition to the impact of economic data, the warming expectations for Fed interest rate hikes are also one of the important reasons for the decline in the crypto market. Strong economic data has reduced the likelihood of the Fed quickly cutting rates, and the market expects that the Fed may only cut rates twice or even fewer times, or even possibly hike rates further. This expectation increases the cost pressure of funds in the market, raises investors' uncertainty about future economic conditions, and thus leads to fluctuations in market sentiment.
In particular, the rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has further exacerbated market tensions. The rise in bond yields indicates an increased demand for bonds, and there exists a certain 'seesaw effect' between bonds and risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. When bond yields rise, funds flow from risk assets to the bond market, thereby suppressing the valuation of cryptocurrencies.
3. The 'Butterfly Effect' of Market Sentiment
A 'too strong' economic data and the warming of expectations for Fed interest rate hikes have jointly triggered dramatic fluctuations in market sentiment. On one hand, the increased risk of tightening liquidity has led investors to lose confidence in holding risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, prompting them to sell off to avoid risk. Below is the selling situation from last night:
On the other hand, the uncertainty of future macro policies (slow interest rate cuts or the possibility of rate hikes) has led to a rise in risk aversion sentiment, intensifying market sell-offs and further pushing down cryptocurrency prices.
In summary, the better-than-expected economic data and the warming expectations for interest rate hikes are the core reasons for the overall decline in the cryptocurrency market. Although the crypto market may face some challenges in the short term, in the long run, with the continuous maturation of the market and the improvement of investors' understanding of cryptocurrencies, there is still a broad development prospect for cryptocurrencies. Investors should remain rational when facing market fluctuations, manage risks well, and seize investment opportunities.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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