Last night, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, with Ethereum strongly hitting the $3500 resistance level, and altcoins plummeting sharply.

The U.S. job vacancy data released yesterday greatly exceeded expectations, indicating a substantial labor shortage in American companies' hiring demands, leading the market to lower its expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. The market now anticipates that there will be no rate cuts before July in the first half of 2025, and this news directly caused Bitcoin to plummet significantly.

Binance's trading volume in the past 4 hours was the highest in two months, exceeding $1.2 billion; compared to when Bitcoin dropped to $91,000 two weeks ago, the trading volume was considerably higher, indicating that market activity was very intense last night, with a very high turnover rate.

When we lack direction, we can only study on-chain data more closely to understand how large capital institutions will operate.

From the on-chain data, after the significant drop last night:

(1) Bitcoin flowed out of exchanges, with Coinbase reporting an outflow of 7,000 Bitcoins, but it is unclear whether these Bitcoins were sold by large holders or transferred for continued holding.

(2) Although stablecoins did not flow out, Bitcoin's price indicates everything.

With such a large trading volume last night, combined with on-chain data, I believe it will be very difficult for Bitcoin to hold the $91,000 level. There is an over 80% probability that Bitcoin will test the strong support at $85,000.

Next, we will look at the U.S. non-farm payroll data and employment rate this Friday. If the data is positive, there is a 40% chance for Bitcoin to rebound to the $100,000 level. If the data is negative, Bitcoin is very likely to break through the $91,000 level with over 80% probability, and then Bitcoin will test the strong support at $85,000.