Na quarta-feira (8 de janeiro), o Bitcoin despencou para menos de US$ 97.000. De acordo com dados da Polymarket, uma grande plataforma de apostas em criptomoedas, a probabilidade de o presidente eleito dos EUA, Donald Trump, estabelecer uma reserva estratégica de Bitcoin caiu para 31%. Os analistas acreditam que ele não assinará uma ordem executiva no primeiro dia em que tomar posse e, em vez disso, comprará Bitcoin nos bastidores, o que significa que o evento do cisne negro esperado pelo mercado pode falhar, amortecendo assim a longa compra de criptomoeda.
Dados da Polymarket mostram que quando Trump vencer as eleições em novembro de 2024, o mercado aposta na possibilidade de ele estabelecer uma reserva estratégica de Bitcoin em seus primeiros 100 dias de mandato, que chegou a atingir um pico de 60%. Mas à medida que a popularidade diminuiu, o mercado começou a não acreditar mais que ele estabeleceria uma reserva estratégica de Bitcoin.
As of Wednesday in Asia, the likelihood of Trump establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve has plummeted to 31%.
Skybridge Capital founder and former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci recently stated in an interview with the Bankless Podcast that the U.S. government plans to purchase Bitcoin on a large scale, possibly up to 500,000 Bitcoins, which will be reviewed by the Senate.
Scaramucci's core argument for establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve is in comparison to gold. The U.S. currently has about $600 billion in gold reserves, and he believes that even a small portion of that could be invested in Bitcoin, or even selling part of the gold reserves, could strengthen the U.S. economy in the era of digital transformation.
However, according to Bezinga, cryptocurrency analyst James Van Straten expressed skepticism about Trump announcing the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve on his first day in office.
He predicted on Twitter: 'I think Trump will not announce the Bitcoin strategic reserve through an executive order on the first day or in the short term.'
He added that Trump, who supports Bitcoin, may buy it behind the scenes rather than announce it publicly. 'Announcing Bitcoin reserves to the world brings no benefits because prices would far exceed his expectations. He will only buy behind the scenes.'
He stated that the most likely scenario is that Trump will restrict the sale of Bitcoins seized by the U.S. government.
According to analysis company Arkham Intelligence, the U.S. government currently holds 198,109 Bitcoins in its asset forfeiture fund.
Johnny Gabriele, Chief Analyst for Lifted Initiative's blockchain economy and AI integration, stated that he bets the U.S. will not sell its currently held Bitcoin, referring to it as a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
There are speculations that Trump might establish a national Bitcoin reserve in accordance with his campaign promises.
When asked about a strategic reserve composed of major cryptocurrencies, Trump vowed to 'do great things with cryptocurrency.'
Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed the Bitcoin Act, which advocates for the Treasury to purchase 1 million Bitcoins within five years, with a prohibition on selling or auctioning them for at least 20 years.
Crypto media BlockTempo cited experts' outlooks, presenting two possible paths for Trump post-inauguration:
Path One: Presidential Executive Order (Earliest in the second half of 2025)
The fastest path for Trump to issue an executive order directly after taking office is because it can bypass the resistance from conservatives and opponents such as the Federal Reserve and Congress. It also refers to the draft provided by the 'Bitcoin Policy Institute', instructing the U.S. Treasury to directly allocate Bitcoin using the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).
Although this method is quick and convenient, it also has side effects. The Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund can operate without congressional approval, but it can be subject to congressional investigation and legislative restrictions. An executive order can also be overturned and modified by the next president, so its permanence and stability are not as good as legislation.
Path Two: Congressional Legislation (Earliest in the second half of 2026)
If a more stable legislative path is taken, it requires a longer process. After policy research and feasibility assessment by the cryptocurrency committee, the bill needs to be submitted to Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee, then it has to go through the Senate, the House of Representatives, and be signed by the President, before it can be officially enacted.
This process may undergo various back-and-forths and is relatively complex, as many conservative lawmakers will likely raise objections and impede progress. Therefore, while this path can achieve a lasting and stable bill, it will take a long time, possibly not materializing until the second half of 2026 or 2027.
