Article Source: Deep Tide TechFlow
Author: Tomb
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Key points of this post
Review the dynamics of agents and AI over the past few months;
Review some obvious investment opportunities in the market;
During the New Year, I took a brief break to observe many things from a bystander's perspective and deeply reflected on past successes and failures;
Next, I will try to clearly share all my thoughts;
Review the dynamics of agents and AI over the past few months
AI Agents Review
I am very satisfied with the performance at the end of last year.
From September to early October, we entered many narrative fields about AI, agents, and infrastructure very early.
Without overly complicating the analysis of these trends, it is clear that these are the next phase of the AI super cycle (and there will be more important catalysts in the future).
This mature judgment comes from long-term experience capturing narratives in the market. When you can identify these trends, you can quickly commit funds without excessive hesitation.
Even now, I still see some people arguing about trivial issues such as the encapsulation applications of ChatGPT, specific functions of an agent, or a protocol not responding in time.
But are these really important? Our purpose here is to make money, not to prove we are right.
The key is to be clear about which phase of the market cycle you are in. Each cycle has its unique rules and strategies.
This is also why many people hold onto old projects for too long, missing out on some 'simple models' hot trends. By 'old,' I do not mean literally old, but rather 'relatively outdated' compared to the rapid pace of industry development.
Please remember that new hotspots emerge every day, and the speed of capital movement will only increase—if teams cannot clearly communicate their ideas or present a clear roadmap, capital will flow to those protocols with stronger communication skills and quicker projects.
When I first encountered Goat, I realized its potential and focused on it very early—what surprised me was that it took others so long to migrate to Base through cross-chain bridges or start exploring agents on Sol.
This phenomenon is largely due to the 'mid-curve effect' (the tendency to overcomplicate thinking) and market panic. If you only realize these issues now, you need to reflect seriously on the reasons.
I am very grateful for the past few months because I have not experienced too many severe losses.
I seized the opportunity with ai16z when its market cap was at $30 million, and also entered aixbt at $30 million market cap, along with some gaming and conversational projects when their market caps were below $10 million.
Of course, there have also been missed opportunities, such as Zerebro, Fartcoin, Snai, and Swarm Node, etc. But it’s okay; it’s impossible to catch every opportunity. What’s important is to reflect on why you missed them and why they succeeded.
Quality
As always, quality is always the key to victory:
High-level developers;
Outstanding brand building;
Innovative ideas or unique technologies with competitive advantages;
Cohesive and high-quality community;
Clear and valuable information and communication;
These are the core elements we have been focusing on. If two or more of the above are missing, there is a risk. Why? Because there will definitely be other teams that can do better.
For example, in the current environment of Virtuals, as long as there are high-quality teams launching AI agents or related infrastructure, I will quickly invest early (i.e., 'all in'). Developer identities are public and transparent (doxxed), and they have been deeply engaged in this field for over 5 years and have participated in multiple protocols—whenever I discover such a team early, I will decisively enter.
In fact, you don't even need to invest too much capital to achieve considerable returns. For example, I found the GEKKO project when it just launched, and its market cap was only $4 million. Because it was developed by the Axal team and received investment from a16z—which was enough for me—I decisively invested. As a result, it rose from a $4 million market cap to $40 million, yielding very considerable returns. I believe it will continue to grow further. Turning $4,000 into $40,000 is a year's salary for some people. Sometimes, you don’t need to invest large sums of money; with $2,000 or $4,000, you can achieve quite substantial returns. Don’t underestimate the potential of these funds.
Another project I have been laying out is Acolyt, a very strong team with a narrative similar to GEKKO. I have mentioned before that if there are 100 different AI agents that can provide high-quality market intelligence (alpha), then the only thing that can distinguish them is identity, user interface (UI), brand, developer level, etc.—this is no different from other fields in life.
This is what I have been looking for: teams that have been focused on building for a long time—those passionate developers who continuously tweet and consistently launch new products. They are the only destination for my funds; I won’t consider other places.
Things to avoid
Avoid single-person development teams with undisclosed identities, especially when building speculative agent projects; this risk is very high.
Another thing to be wary of is agent projects initiated by individual 'internet celebrities.' Such projects are often abandoned shortly after being announced because developers realize that the responsibilities exceed expectations.
Struggling Narratives
I have to admit that there are some narratives that I personally hold in high regard, but their development has indeed encountered some difficulties. This does not mean these projects are bad, but their progress has been relatively slow.
Putting funds into a seemingly promising project, only to find its performance falls short of expectations, while other surrounding projects realize 2-3 times growth in a short period, is indeed frustrating.
These projects tend to be 'slow burners' or ultimately become 'auxiliary experimental products' for other projects.
For example, $GRIFT+$REALIS+$OMEGA. I still hold some of them, but from a practical operation perspective, I should have cut losses earlier and shifted funds to stronger AI infrastructure projects like REI and ARC. The potential of these projects is more obvious, and their performance is more stable.
At that time, I invested about $100,000 to $120,000 in these 'experimental' projects, originally expecting them to capture a larger market share. But looking back, projects like Griffain, which is supported by Solana, are clearly stronger, while projects like Realis need more time to mature, possibly because their ideas are too ahead of their time or their team size is smaller.
Reflecting, when you get 20-30 times returns on projects like $GAME, you feel you have enough capital to 'test the waters' or take risks, so you don't mind putting funds into a slow-progressing project. But in reality, as a trader or investor, we should not treat our funds this way.
In the coming weeks, I will continue to share observations about agents and market operations, while also focusing on the next possible market rotation opportunities. We all know that no narrative can last forever. This does not necessarily mean that the narrative of agents has ended, but they may be entering a new stage of development.
Please remember that the market is changing very quickly now, almost accelerating in all directions. If you become complacent, you may be eliminated. You need to pay attention to market dynamics every day because the 'hot potato' is becoming increasingly hot.
Review some obvious investment opportunities in the market
Some market opportunities are very obvious to some people, but not necessarily to others. I won't list all examples but will share some main cases and how I grasp these narratives.
VIRTUALS
When I first saw the GOAT project take off, I was deeply attracted to it. Realizing its potential, I immediately invested. But then, I completely missed $ZEREBRO and $BULLY, both of which have performed very well to this day. This made me more eager to find the next possible opportunity.
It was then that I discovered aixbt. When I learned about its functions and positioning, I immediately realized that this was the next project worth watching, especially after seeing discussions about $GOAT, $ZEREBRO, and $BULLY in the community. I noticed that the market is gradually shifting from entertainment projects to practical projects. This shift is precisely why I started to pay attention to projects like Base, Virtuals, $GAME, and $CONVO.
In fact, it was an article by Jeff about how Virtuals could become a billion-dollar protocol that determined my decision. The tokenomics, brand building, and ecological advantages of the Base chain mentioned in the article further convinced me of the immense potential of Virtuals.
By studying $GAME, I finally understood the concept of 'frameworks.' This knowledge helped me seize many excellent investment opportunities in the following weeks. Although I am not a tech geek and cannot fully grasp all the details, I am very interested in this field and willing to learn as much as possible.
Interestingly, when the market cap of Virtuals reached $5-6 million, I did not invest in it.
I believe that when you confirm the potential of an ecosystem, such as its potential growth to $5 billion, $10 billion, or even $20 billion, you need to focus on two key points: first, the 'pioneers,' and second, those agents that continuously occupy the user's mind.
For example, $LUNA is a typical pioneer, while $VADER is the first DAO/ALPHA project.
In this ecosystem, there are many projects worth focusing on. For me, the team is the key factor, followed by the concept and practicality, and lastly, the brand and identity. These three constitute the 'holy trinity.'
Here are some outstanding projects worth studying:
>$WAI;
>$ACOLYT;
>$SEKOIA;
>$GEKKO;
These projects are all worth paying attention to, especially those belonging to the Agentstarter ecosystem.
AI16z
It may sound a bit casual, but when I first encountered and promoted daos.fun, I almost directly invested in AI16z just based on the name. After deeply researching projects like Truth Terminal funded by Marc, I was convinced that this was a project worth paying attention to.
When I learned that AI16z DAO is attracting top developers from around the world and is committed to accelerating the construction of its ecosystem and framework, I became even more convinced of its immense potential. The activity on GitHub is continuously rising, and the momentum of the entire project is rapidly accumulating, which can hardly be explained by 'mid-curve thinking.'
Despite some FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) during the period, the testing projects in their agent ecosystem, $ELIZA and $DEGENAI, both have significant potential. For instance, Eliza's market cap has reached $160 million, while @degenspartanai has reached $100 million. With the continued expansion of AI16z, these two projects are expected to grow further—these are all very obvious investment opportunities.
Other ecosystems
In Agentic Outlook One, I analyzed each major Launchpad/protocol and its Alpha agent or Beta projects in detail:
Creator.Bid|$BID (potential dark horse)
Algo| Grown from $2-3 million market cap to $25 million (an obvious opportunity)
Holoworld AI|$AVA
AVA| Grown from about $25 million to $150 million
vvaifu.fun|$VVAIFU
@dasha| Grown from $15 million to $150 million
The following ecosystems are also worth paying attention to:
$UOS
$AIMONICA
$STOIC
Moemate|$MATES (coming soon)
We also early covered Nebula|$MOE, which grew from $5 million to $25 million.
Other ecosystems worth paying attention to:
ALCHEMIST AI|$ALCH
FXN|$FXN
arc|$ARC
griffain| $GRIFFAIN
Top Hat ? AI|$HAT
Empyreal|$EMP
Spectral|$SPEC
3σ|$TRISIG
Many of these projects have already achieved several times growth.
Complete analysis can be found here: link
This list could go on; the potential of these projects will be even higher—they are all very obvious investment opportunities.
However, I still hold some other projects that I think have potential, such as $GRIFT and $REALIS. I believe they just need more time and some adjustments to perform well.
Here are some projects I haven't had time to analyze in depth, but they are equally worth paying attention to:
$REI|REI Network
$SERV|OpenServ
$HEU|Heurist
Among these projects, especially $REI, are worth paying extra attention to.
Beyond the on-chain ecosystem, I am very optimistic about the combination of decentralized finance (DEFI) and agents.
$MODE|Mode, a project that I think will have great potential.
Another thing to look forward to is the further development of Uomi.
Stick to choosing projects with excellent teams, strong infrastructure (Infra), and high attention/heat/mindshare, and you won't go wrong.
For me, the lifespan of agents is usually short because most projects struggle to maintain market attention over time. However, in my view, AIXBT and GOAT are exemplary benchmarks for success in the agent field.
Why reflect on these?
Because this can help you discover the next worthy investment opportunity.
Notes
It's worth paying attention to some early projects, such as $GNON, $PROJECT89, $AVB, etc.
$OPUS's market cap has dropped by 85%, and many early AI projects may have hit bottom.
We need to pay attention to whether these projects are still actively developing, while also remembering that the potential of AI infrastructure (Infra) and agents is enormous.
Every week, new ideas and concepts emerge. These new projects often have stronger teams and better brands, so we need to continuously scan the entire market.
I'm not saying these projects are bad; rather, I want to emphasize that the speed of market changes is very fast—many traders who have experienced 80-100 times returns will quickly take profits and then turn to the next more attractive opportunities, whether in the fields of swarm intelligence, decentralized science (DeSci), or DEFI agents.
Excellent teams always find ways to stay relevant in the market for the long term.
Finally, there are some trends worth paying attention to:
Currently, there are many hackathon activities happening, which have birthed some very interesting ideas and projects. Participating in these activities not only helps you expand your horizons but also allows you to better understand future technological trends.
Data sources for AI agents:
Cookie DAO|$COOKIE;
Alphanomics;
Decentralised.Co, in collaboration with Sentient Market;
In the coming days, we can discuss the future development direction of the agent field together, so that when the market narrative changes, we can seize the opportunity.
