Happy Laba Festival to my friends today!
Let's first take a look at Bitcoin: BTC has been continuously rising for nearly a week, bringing confidence to everyone. Whether it's mainstream coins or altcoins, they are quietly rising. Have you seized the opportunity? Many friends have been waiting and missed the good opportunity; some friends asked me whether to chase in now.
Here's my suggestion: Don't be fooled by Bitcoin returning to above $100,000; however, the market liquidity hasn't increased. This is mainly reflected in the slow demand from ETFs and MicroStrategy's CEO. Without major buying pressure, Bitcoin may undergo a correction. If Bitcoin corrects, it will lead to altcoins dropping, so this is not a very good time to enter the market. Moreover, Trump will take office on January 20th, and if there happens to be a sharp drop before he takes office, you will be stuck, which is not worth the loss.
I personally predict that BTC will fluctuate between 99,000 and 103,000. This phase is a time to solidify the foundation. If you don't have a position now, don't impulsively chase high prices; stay steady and accumulate when prices dip.
Now let's talk about ETH, which is expected to fluctuate between 3550 and 3800, showing a strong trend. Moreover, institutional holdings are continuously increasing, which indicates what? If you have ETH in hand, just hold on to it.
Views on the future of AI
Although we have said that AI is the future, today AI and Chain Oil Sand have all collectively corrected, but the overall trend is still good, and the Meme sector is steadily consolidating, waiting for a rise. Strong coins include BOME, HMSTR, AI, IO, etc. There are still 14 days until Trump takes office and 22 days until the New Year; market fluctuations will be large, and switching positions and targeting potential coins should start after the market stabilizes.
It is uncertain whether coins that are performing well will correct, but there are indeed many opportunities. I have already identified a few targets waiting to enter. Although the secondary market has seen some correction, the primary market is still reaching new highs. AI16Z is approaching the previous high point of 2.36, and Swarms is consolidating around 0.5, waiting to continue its upward momentum.
The explosive popularity of AI Agents poses a challenge to major exchanges, as traffic and funds will flow from the secondary market to the primary market, unless the secondary market starts to rally. Otherwise, this trend will continue. But in any case, holding the leading spot assets will keep you in a winning position.
Do data affect whether altcoin market cycles can break new highs?
Can altcoins innovate to new highs? Lack of liquidity is just an excuse; the real reason for the decline is the expectation of a drop, while the reason for the rise is the expectation of an increase. In 2021, the market value of USDT was only half of what it is now, but it still supported the altcoin bull market. The same is true for this round; as long as there is an 'expectation', altcoins may not necessarily rise 100 times, but surpassing the 2021 high by 50%-100% is certainly possible.
As for the Trump market factors, the crazy rise of BTC starting in November is mainly due to Trump. Therefore, the topic of Trump is a very grand topic, and it is difficult to explain the pros and cons in a few words. After confirming the general direction, you can focus on coins related to Trump and altcoins that he holds.
We are experiencing the first rebound after about two weeks of consolidation. Some see this as a chance to escape, while others view it as the beginning of the altcoin season. Besides market data, this will largely depend on the FOMC meeting on January 28-29 and the macro data released throughout January.
These data will affect the market's expectations for the first rate cuts in January/March/May. If the data is better (here, 'better' means favorable for us), then the probability of rate cuts in March will increase, and the expectations for the number of cuts throughout the year will also increase. (Currently, the likelihood of a rate cut in January is low, so the main bets are on March vs. May.)
At the same time, there is also the dot plot in March, which means there will be expectations for interest rate cuts throughout the year. If the data in January is favorable and a very dovish statement is made, then the expectations for rate cuts in March will increase, and the bull market is likely to continue.
