Author: @arndxt_xo
Compiled by: Baihua Blockchain
In this article, I will delve into eight key states of the crypto industry, distilling important insights into market developments and exploring six trends that are shaping the future trajectory of the crypto industry.
We will discuss the rise of AI agents, the resurgence of memecoins, the consolidation of Bitcoin, and the explosive performance of Solana.
Next, we will break down these insights into eight key observations and six eye-catching trends, revealing key changes in the market.
1. Eight states of the crypto industry.
The following chart is a brief summary of the table of contents.
1) The market size for AI agents is still relatively small.
Despite the market cap of Virtuals (an AI agent launch platform) skyrocketing to about $4 billion, the total market cap of AI agents themselves is only about $1 billion. Although AI agents have been one of the hottest topics recently, there remains significant growth potential in the market as adoption and attention continue to rise.
2) Trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) surges compared to centralized exchanges (CEX).
The perpetual DEX is particularly popular, and more and more projects have achieved billion-dollar valuations without relying on centralized exchanges for listing. This is a significant step towards a truly decentralized trading ecosystem, showcasing the broader prospects of DeFi.
3) The focus on decentralized science (DeSci) is surging.
Interest in decentralized science (DeSci) has significantly increased, attracting more developers and researchers. Although some narratives (such as liquid staking, BRC-20, modularity, L2, and RWA) have weakened, the rapid rise of DeSci may indicate new innovation opportunities.
4) The supply of Bitcoin on trading platforms continues to decline.
The proportion of BTC (and ETH) on trading platforms continues to decline, indicating that large holders and long-term holders are increasing their positions. A reduction in supply on trading platforms typically alleviates selling pressure, thereby driving bullish momentum in the market, especially for Bitcoin.
5) Programmable Bitcoin via sBTC on Stacks.
Stacks has launched sBTC, a 1:1 Bitcoin-backed asset designed to unlock about $2 trillion in Bitcoin liquidity for DeFi. Holders of sBTC can earn underlying yields (such as approximately 5% Bitcoin yield) and can borrow against it on platforms like Zest, with annualized yields of about 6%, and more investment opportunities coming soon. This provides a practical way to 'make Bitcoin work,' potentially driving more Bitcoin-centric DeFi innovation.
6) Stablecoin supply surpasses $200 billion historical high.
The supply of stablecoins has increased from $125 billion at the beginning of 2024 to $200 billion. The annual trading volume of stablecoins has surpassed that of Visa, further proving that they represent a burgeoning trillion-dollar opportunity.
7) Monthly crypto fund growth.
Although still below the peak in 2021, the inflow of investment capital has significantly increased. Historically, inflows typically occur at market tops, and the current growth trend suggests that we are still in the early stages of a growth cycle and have not yet reached a state of extreme market optimism.
8) Additional: The rapid rise of Solana.
By December 2024, Solana generated $43.1 billion in trading fee revenue in a short time, surpassing the total of all other L1s. Solana's activity is comparable to Ethereum across multiple key metrics, and the upcoming Firedancer upgrade may further enhance its scalability and network utilization. It is becoming increasingly clear that Ethereum and Solana can (and likely will) coexist in a multichain future.
2. Six narrative trends.
1) Bitcoin consolidation and potential bottom.
Bitcoin has been trading in the range of $94,000 to $95,000, frequently dipping below $94,000 and touching $93,000, frustrating traders. Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers around $97,000. The recent accumulation near $94,000 suggests a potential bottom, but a retracement to $88,000 to $92,000 remains possible. If Bitcoin rises, altcoins are expected to perform better, similar to the bull market of 2021.
2) AI agents dominate market narratives.
Key performers: VIRTUAL, an AI agent launch platform on Base, doubled its market cap from $2.5 billion to $5 billion in just 10 days. Important projects in the ecosystem: AIXBT: a Twitter-based agent that increased from $300 million to $600 million. GAME: nearing a market cap of $400 million. AI16Z (based on Solana): increased from $1 billion to $2.5 billion. Other notable projects include $ZEREBRO ($800 million), $GRIFFAIN ($470 million), and $ARC ($400 million). AI agents are leading a wave of innovation, attracting significant attention and investment.
3) The return of Memecoins and Murad Coin.
Emerging star projects: $$SPX$$GIGA have both reached historical highs, with $SPX surpassing $1 billion and $GIGA reaching an $800 million market cap. KEKIUS: surged to $400 million in market cap after Elon Musk changed his Twitter avatar, but quickly retraced by 75%. Memecoins like WIF, POPCAT, and FWOG may be poised for a resurgence.
4) Highlights of the altcoin market.
Dinosaur coins: $$XRP (+15%) $$XLM (+35%) continue to perform strongly. From Fantom to Sonic Network: $$FTM is rebranding to $$S, sharply dropping to $0.66 before rebounding, potentially signaling a long-term opportunity. CEXToken: BGB: has quadrupled since December, currently valued at $7.5 billion. GT: has increased by 50% since December.
5) Noteworthy performers and newly issued projects.
Fuel Network ($FUEL): A new L2 network showing strong potential. MORPHO: Continues to set new highs. Other notable new coins: $$PEAQ$$USUAL (strong), VANA, XION (bottom rebound).
6) Strange price fluctuations.
UXLINK: extremely volatile, initially surged (+140%), then rapidly retraced. MOCA: After being listed on BN, experienced a frenzy of rally and sell-off.
3. Some newly launched projects this week.
Finally, here are some emerging projects worth following up on and gaining deeper insights into.
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