Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)
At the beginning of the New Year 2025, the market seems to have started a gradual price recovery amid fluctuations and declines.
Around 10 AM today, BTC prices briefly soared past $99,000, currently reported at around $98,800; ETH rebounded from around $3,300 on January 1 to above $3,600; SOL also gradually rose from around $180 on January 1 to above $210. As the date of Trump's inauguration as President of the United States approaches, market sentiment is gradually warming. Odaily Planet Daily will summarize recent market views for reference.
Buying continues: There is a long-term presence of buying funds at the national, institutional, and corporate levels.
The price rebound is naturally inseparable from the influx of buying pressure; after experiencing the 'Christmas fluctuations,' the buying power of the New Year now appears to remain long-term and increasingly robust.
Data: Historical cumulative net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $35.909 billion.
According to SoSoValue data, as of January 3, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $111.46 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market cap as a percentage of Bitcoin's total market cap) of 5.72%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $35.91 billion; the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs was $13.03 billion, with an ETF net asset rate (market cap as a percentage of Ethereum's total market cap) of 3%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $2.64 billion.
BTC spot ETF data
ETH spot ETF data
In addition, institutional reports have also shown confidence in the sustained net inflow of funds for Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs in 2025.
Steno Research: Expects net inflows of $48 billion and $28.5 billion for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2025; BTC will rise to at least $150,000.
Steno Research's recent report indicates that its bullish predictions for BTC and ETH prices reflect 'an unprecedented favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic environment characterized by declining interest rates and improving liquidity, and historically strong performance following Bitcoin halving.'
He also stated, 'In addition, institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, and significant capital inflows into US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs further drive this trend.' Steno expects net inflows for BTC and ETH ETFs in 2025 to be $48 billion and $28.5 billion, respectively. Additionally, the report states that by 2025, DApp TVL is expected to exceed $300 billion, far surpassing the previous high of approximately $180 billion in 2021.
Previously, Steno Research reported that it expected Bitcoin prices to rise from around $94,000 to at least $150,000 by 2025, while ETH prices would more than double from $3,400 to at least $8,000. That is, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is expected to rise from the current 0.0357 to 0.06 within the next 12 months, similar to previous cyclical price trends, with altcoins becoming the focus.
El Salvador has increased its holdings by 5 BTC since the new year, currently holding approximately 6,009 BTC.
According to today's on-chain data, El Salvador has increased its holdings by 5 BTC since the new year, bringing its total holdings to approximately 6,009 BTC.
MARA CEO: Will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings in 2025, currently holding over 40,000 BTC.
According to the CEO of Bitcoin mining company MARA Digital, it will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings on its balance sheet in 2025.
MARA currently holds a total of 44,893 BTC, valued at over $4 billion.
On Deribit, BTC block options bought for $97,000 call options expiring on January 10, totaling 150 BTC.
According to Lin Chen, head of Deribit Asia Pacific business, the largest BTC block option today is: a user paid $559,000 to purchase a $97,000 call option expiring on January 10 (this Friday), totaling 150 BTC.
Standard Chartered Bank: BTC price will reach $200,000 in 2025, and MicroStrategy will buy more BTC
Standard Chartered Bank's digital asset research director Geoffrey Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin prices will double; he previously stated in a report that he expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Moreover, he expects that institutional investment in Bitcoin will continue at or exceed the pace of 2024 next year. The bank noted that since the beginning of this year, institutional purchases of Bitcoin have reached 683,000 coins, mainly purchased through the US spot Bitcoin ETF and the software company and effective Bitcoin investment alternative MicroStrategy. Geoffrey Kendrick stated that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases in 2025 should reach or exceed the 2024 purchase volume. He also added that due to the incoming Trump administration's expected reforms on regulations regarding traditional financial (TradFi) companies' investments in digital currencies, pension funds should start incorporating Bitcoin into their portfolios through the US spot Bitcoin ETF beginning next year. Kendrick pointed out: 'Even a small allocation of $40 trillion from US retirement funds would significantly boost Bitcoin prices. We would be more optimistic if Bitcoin were adopted more quickly by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), or potential US strategic reserve funds.'
Moreover, major listed companies are still methodically proceeding with their own 'Bitcoin accumulation plans.'
Blockstream founder: MicroStrategy may have increased its BTC holdings.
Blockstream founder Adam Back stated, 'I believe MicroStrategy has completed its Bitcoin purchases, but must announce to the market through an 8-K filing before or after regular trading hours when the stock market opens.'
Earlier news reported that MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has released Bitcoin Tracker-related information for the ninth consecutive week.
Statistics: In the past week, 11 listed companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated: 'According to HODL15Capital statistics, since last Monday, 11 listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin. In 2025, many companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a movement.'
Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 coins by 2025.
As a Japanese listed company that has tasted the benefits of the 'Bitcoin reserve plan,' Metaplanet's buying pressure will also continue.
The company's CEO Simon Gerovich recently stated that this year's goal is to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 coins by leveraging its 'most value-added capital market tools' to promote Bitcoin adoption in Japan and globally, and 'expand Metaplanet's influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem.'
Gerovich stated: 'We are not just creating a company; we are driving a movement.'
Compared to the continuously growing buying pressure, entering 2025, the 'selling pressure' has also significantly eased.
Selling pressure eases: Both exchange inflows and miner outflows have decreased.
As a major source of selling pressure, exchange inflows and miner outflows have historically been seen as reliable indicators, and there has been a significant decrease recently.
Since November 2024, BTC exchange inflows and miner outflows have significantly decreased, indicating reduced selling pressure.
Since November 2024, Bitcoin exchange inflows (total BTC transferred to exchanges) and miner outflows (BTC sent to exchanges by miners) have significantly decreased, indicating reduced selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin exchange inflows peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, following approximately two months of highly active exchange inflow activity. In December 2024, Bitcoin exchange inflows decreased but remained quite substantial, with total Bitcoin sent to exchanges ranging between 11,000 and 79,000 coins daily.
The reduction in exchange inflows is accompanied by a decrease in miner outflows, indicating that selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has eased; they often sell BTC holdings to cover operating expenses. Since last November's historic price surge following Trump's election, miner outflows have been declining.
CryptoQuant data shows that outflows peaked on November 11, when miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, at which point Bitcoin prices reached around $88,000. On January 1, 2025, miners sent 5,489 BTC to exchanges, 5,748 BTC on January 2, and 2,133 BTC on January 3.
Macro and micro predictions game: Cautiously optimistic and highly optimistic factions hold their views.
Regarding macro predictions for the cryptocurrency market and micro-level personal views, there is a coexistence of cautious optimism and high optimism. Some traders believe it is appropriate to 'take profits in a timely manner and take profit on swings.'
Greeks.live: European and American users are gradually returning from holidays, and market enthusiasm is rising.
On January 3, Greeks.live research institute Adam stated: '20,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.69, the maximum pain point is $97,000, with a nominal value of $1.93 billion. 206,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.81, the maximum pain point is $3,400, with a nominal value of $710 million. Today is the first weekly options expiration of 2025, totaling $2.6 billion in options expiring, and European and American users are gradually returning from holidays, the overall market heat is rising. However, this week's theme remains adjustment, and the market is clearly divided, with no sustained hotspots yet.
Later this month, Trump is set to officially take office as the new President of the United States, and the entire market is very optimistic about 2025. However, the recent noticeable pullback in the US stock market has also brought considerable uncertainty to the market; it is highly likely that this month's interest rate meeting will maintain the current rate without a decrease, and there are no further positives for the market in the short term.
Perspective from American investment banks: Expects BTC market capitalization to reach a quarter of gold's by the end of this year, with BTC prices breaking through $220,000.
The American investment bank HC Wainwright expects Bitcoin prices to reach $225,000 per coin by the end of 2025, which means Bitcoin's market capitalization will reach $4.5 trillion, accounting for approximately 25% of gold's market value.
Finance professor: Supportive regulations in the US will boost BTC, and a price reaching $200,000 is entirely possible.
Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex in the UK, believes that a Bitcoin price of $200,000 is possible. Carol Alexander pointed out, 'I am more optimistic about 2025 than ever before,' she added that Bitcoin's price 'will easily reach $200,000, but there are no signs that volatility will decrease.' Alexander clarified that she does not actually own any Bitcoin. 'By next summer, I expect its trading price to fluctuate around $150,000, plus or minus $50,000.' Supportive regulations in the US will boost Bitcoin, however, the lack of regulation on cryptocurrency exchanges will continue to lead to volatility, as high-leverage trading will cause prices to fluctuate up and down.
It is reported that Carol Alexander has a good track record in predicting Bitcoin prices; last year she anticipated that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, and indeed it did.
Mining industry practitioners: Bitcoin may peak at $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, but there may be occasional sharp pullbacks.
BIT Mining (BTCM) chief economist Youwei Yang predicts that Bitcoin prices will range between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025, but he remains cautious, believing that prices may experience a pullback.
He pointed out: 'Bitcoin may see significant upward momentum and occasional sharp pullbacks in 2025. During market shock moments, such as major stock market crashes, Bitcoin may temporarily drop to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain upward. Based on these dynamics, Bitcoin is predicted to reach a peak of $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, which aligns with historical cyclical patterns and the growing trend of mainstream institutions investing in cryptocurrencies.'
Ledn chief investment officer: Predicts BTC will hit $160,000 by the end of this year or early next year.
Cryptocurrency lending company Ledn chief investment officer John Glover stated that Bitcoin may drop to $89,000, then rebound to reach $125,000 by the end of the first quarter.
Glover stated that Bitcoin may pull back to $100,000 before hitting $160,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026, a forecast that is more conservative than the $180,000 and $200,000 predictions from asset management firms VanEck and Bitwise.
Analyst: Bitcoin is expected to maintain range fluctuations, possibly rising to $105,000 in January.
Bitfinex analysts expect Bitcoin to rise to $105,000 in January. Bitfinex analysts stated, 'We expect Bitcoin to maintain range-bound market movements as investors seek to deploy capital across a variety of asset classes. We predict that by the end of January, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000.'
On January 20, the inauguration ceremony of Donald Trump, the elected President of the United States, may become a significant catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the new US government include more favorable regulatory policies for cryptocurrencies and improved US economic policies. However, according to Bitfinex analysts, Trump's inauguration may not immediately trigger a rise in cryptocurrency prices. 'We expect the new US government to bring more clarity to cryptocurrency policy, but we do not believe that the inauguration itself will be a significant price-rising event, but rather lay the groundwork for a less obstructed path for cryptocurrencies in the US.'
Placeholder partner: Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL all look strong.
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske stated: 'Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL all look strong and are likely to rise again soon.'
In addition, he also added that, similar to previous trends, the Meme coins of the past few weeks have become a good indicator of increased risk appetite.
1confirmation founder: Countries are expected to try to adopt Microstrategy's strategy to increase Bitcoin holdings.
1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino stated that countries are likely to soon see a race to adopt MicroStrategy's strategy:
- Issue government bonds of different maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.) - Use bonds to purchase cryptocurrencies - Repay loans on time according to the loan term.
At the same time, he stated that the question is not whether countries will do this, but what kind of cryptocurrencies they will buy, possibly starting with BTC, but the next will be ETH; any sufficiently decentralized currency can participate, and the government bond market is larger than the stock market.
Negative bearish sentiment and profit-taking: Mature viewpoints from well-known research institutions and traders.
Compared to the optimistic attitude towards BTC, the market's view on ETH and altcoins is relatively rational. Here we showcase some representative viewpoints.
10x Research: Expects ETH's performance in 2025 to lag behind BTC again, does not favor the Pectra upgrade.
Recently, 10x Research's head of research Markus Thielen stated in a market report: 'While the possibility of new catalysts cannot be ruled out, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to achieve a meaningful rebound in 2025. While we understand Ethereum's volatility, we believe it remains a poor mid-term investment and expect ETH's performance in 2025 to lag behind BTC again. Therefore, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: 'avoid'.'
Thielen stated that one of the most important indicators to watch in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. However, he noted that the one-month growth rate of Ethereum validators has turned negative, declining by about 1% over the past 30 days, raising concerns about an increased risk of more validators exiting the network. Thielen stated that the increase in unstaking seems 'logical,' and he believes Ethereum lacks 'real demand' beyond staking.
He also stated that the Ethereum Duncan upgrade in March last year (which lowered network gas fees and allowed it to process more transactions) was 'six months late,' missing the peak of the Meme coin surge, causing the market to 'turn to' more 'cost-effective' alternatives like Solana. He also expressed skepticism about the upcoming Pectra upgrade scheduled for early 2025, stating, 'Of the 19 upgrades to date, only two had a significant positive impact on ETH prices, and those upgrades occurred during Bitcoin bull markets.' He added, 'The three major catalysts for Ethereum in 2024 have basically all failed, and overall have not brought any value.'
Senior trader: Trump's inauguration may be a key trigger for a resurgence of bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market.
Senior cryptocurrency trader The Crypto Dog recently stated that there may not be significant fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market before Trump is inaugurated on January 20. He speculates that this political event may become a key trigger for a resurgence of bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market. He believes that Bitcoin and altcoins may remain stagnant before the inauguration, mirroring previous election cycles' market behavior. His analysis shows that historical patterns indicate Bitcoin often rises after a new US president takes office. In 2021, shortly after President Biden's inauguration, Bitcoin rose more than 100%. Similarly, Bitcoin also experienced significant breakthroughs around the time of the 2017 inauguration.
Despite these observations, he also admits that if the stock market (especially the S&P 500 index) continues to rise, his predictions could be overturned. He emphasized that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, indicating that sustained strength in the stock market could bring a more optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in January.
It is worth mentioning that there are about two weeks until Trump's inauguration, and the market shows a general rise in Trump-related concept coins.
Analysis: The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530 in the past two months.
On-chain analyst Ali shared Glassnode data, stating: 'The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530 over the past two months.'
Odaily Planet Daily believes that this move may mean more retail investors are exiting the market, further centralizing BTC's chip holding structure.
Trader Eugene: After the bull market enters the second half, a better strategy is high-frequency cashing out.
Noted trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that as we enter the second half of this cycle, the strategy to adopt is to sell more frequently rather than hold long-term.
