O Bitcoin (BTC) sofreu uma recente reversão de preços, mas olhando para a tendência de longo prazo, o impulso ascendente está retornando gradualmente. À medida que o sentimento do mercado flutua, estamos num ponto de inflexão crítico, com factores técnicos e macro sugerindo uma possível dinâmica ascendente. Hoje, vamos falar sobre alguns pontos-chave: sinais de sobrecompra, a onda de compra de ETFs Bitcoin à vista nos EUA, o efeito Trump e o desempenho semanal e mensal do RSI. Você está pronto? O futuro do Bitcoin pode ser ainda mais emocionante!
1. Sinal de sobrecompra: pode haver correção no curto prazo
Do ponto de vista da análise técnica de curto prazo, o RSI estocástico (índice de força relativa) do Bitcoin já está em um estado de sobrecompra, especialmente os indicadores nos períodos de 4 horas, 8 horas, 12 horas e 1 dia, todos mostram pressão descendente no preço.
This means that in the coming days, we may see a pullback in Bitcoin prices, with possible short-term declines.
However, it is worth noting that the RSI often stays near the top for a while and may continue to rise even after a price pullback. Therefore, while we currently see overbought signals, it does not mean a significant pullback is inevitable. Short-term adjustments are merely to build momentum, and the next upward wave may be stronger.
2. US Spot Bitcoin ETF: Inflows Catalyzing Price Increase
Apart from technical factors, another driving force behind Bitcoin's rise is the investment boom in the US spot Bitcoin ETF.
On Friday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded the fifth-largest net inflow, with total purchases reaching 9.36K BTC, equivalent to $907.3 million.
If this level of inflow continues, Bitcoin prices are likely to rebound to the historical high of $108,000 or even break through it. This indicates that institutional investor interest is rising, and the liquidity in the market may bring stronger upward momentum.
3. Trump Effect: The Cryptocurrency Driving Force Before the Presidential Inauguration
There are two weeks left until Donald Trump takes office as President of the United States. Historical experience shows that during Trump's administration, the cryptocurrency market often benefits from the loose measures in his policies, especially in uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
If Bitcoin experiences a pullback in the short term, we expect that before Trump's inauguration will become the next important price surge opportunity. This event may bring a new positive atmosphere to the market, pushing Bitcoin prices up again.
4. BTC Upward Trend Line: Support Line Remains Strong
The daily chart of Bitcoin shows that prices have remained above the upward trend line from 2021 over the past few months. This trend line is crucial for Bitcoin's price movements. If the price breaks below and confirms under this line, it may trigger market concerns.
Currently, the price just touches the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and has shown some local rebound. Although the stochastic RSI is at the top, the price still maintains above the upward trend line. As long as this line is not broken, the long-term upward momentum remains unchanged.
5. Weekly and Monthly RSI: Strong Signals of Momentum Recovery
From a longer time frame perspective, Bitcoin's weekly and monthly RSI are giving strong bullish signals.
In the weekly chart, the fast line of the stochastic RSI is bending upwards and may find support at the 0.50 level. If this crossover pattern forms within this week, it could trigger greater buying pressure, pushing Bitcoin prices further up.
The monthly chart is even more exciting: the current monthly RSI indicator is at the top, and the blue line has broken through the 0.80 level. If the orange line also breaks through next, price momentum will peak, potentially welcoming the final wave of a bull market.
Conclusion: Strong bullish momentum, the coming weeks may be full of opportunities.
Although Bitcoin may experience a pullback in the short term, the overall trend is gradually recovering. The inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the market momentum from Trump's inauguration, and the strong signals from the RSI indicator all provide robust support for Bitcoin's future development.
The coming weeks will be a crucial moment for Bitcoin to see if it can break through the historical high of $108,000.
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