What happened?
According to data from the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 has risen from 77% to 86%.
Market views suggest that after Trump's inauguration, he will be a driving force for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs.
For the Solana ETF to succeed in listing, it must adopt a 'Grantor Trust' structure similar to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and avoid being classified as a security; otherwise, it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Polymarket predicts a probability of 86% for Solana ETF to be listed in the U.S.
According to data released by the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket on New Year's Day, the preliminary probability of the Solana ETF being listed in the U.S. in 2025 is 77%. However, Matthew Sigel, research director at asset management firm VanEck, responded that this probability is 'underestimated.'
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As of the time of writing, the probability predicted on January 3 has indeed reached 86%. Media (Cointelegraph) analysis shows that Sigel's optimistic attitude reflects the entire industry's expectations for more cryptocurrency ETFs to be listed in the United States, especially after the election of Trump (Donald Trump), who supports cryptocurrencies, as President.
Trump has stated that he wishes to make the U.S. the 'world’s crypto capital.'
Trump's inauguration boosts Solana ETF promotion
The listing of the Solana ETF has attracted significant industry attention. In June last year, VanEck and other competitors such as 21Shares submitted related applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but faced questioning from the SEC in August, pointing out that Solana could be classified as a security rather than a commodity.
If cryptocurrencies are considered securities, the establishment and listing of ETFs will become more complicated, as they will need to comply with strict regulations under U.S. securities law. Organizations issuing ETFs must complete more compliance processes, such as submitting detailed documents, registration applications, and ensuring that transactions with investors meet the requirements of securities law.
This controversy has affected the ETF launch plans of several asset management firms, but market views suggest that Trump's victory will be a boost for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs. As early as after the November 2024 election, Sigel had predicted that the likelihood of the U.S. approving the Solana ETF in 2025 is 'very high.'
(Cointelegraph) pointed out that the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs currently listed in the U.S. use a special 'Grantor Trust' structure, which is suitable for funds that hold a single commodity. If the Solana ETF wants to succeed in listing, it must adopt a similar structure and avoid being classified as a security; otherwise, it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Whether the Solana ETF can be successfully listed will be a key point in 2025 when Trump officially takes office as President of the United States.
This article is reprinted with permission from: (Web3+)
Original author: Li Pengrui
Original title: (Will Solana ETF be listed in 2025? Prediction market Polymarket bets on an 86% chance of passing)
'Will Solana ETF be listed in 2025? On-chain betting shows an 86% chance of passing!' This article was first published in 'Crypto City.'
