Daily Market Analysis (01.05)

Summary:

1. The rebates have been fully issued; feel free to leave a message if there are any issues.

2. Tips for selecting altcoins.

3. Where is the bottom under the monthly level of the US stock market? There are three possibilities. However, even in the worst-case scenario where the Nasdaq falls below 15500, we should start building positions and dollar-cost averaging. The last bull market in US stocks lasted 20 years from 1980 to 2000. According to the Kuznets cycle, the current upward movement from 2009 is nearing its end, and there may only be one more bull market left, so we should cherish it.

4. The current 4-hour rebound of Bitcoin is about to end. On Monday, it may make a move upwards between 99000-100000 to find a top, but based on two reasons, it may also skip this upward move and go directly down.

5. Regardless of whether Bitcoin makes an upward move, anyone holding long positions should close them on Monday.

6. Even if there is an altcoin season, it is unlikely to be in January; long-term short positions require patience.

7. The operation of Ethereum will be relatively complex due to the involvement of whether the exchange rate will rebound; relatively speaking, SOL is easier to operate.

Operations:

1. For $BTC , enter the primary position at 98500 (30%), and add to the position at 99500 (70%). The purpose of the primary position is to prevent it from not making the upward move on Monday. For short positions, take profit 1/3 at the EMA30 of the weekly chart, set the stop-loss at the MA250 of the daily chart to 88000, and take all profit out at the EMA60 of the weekly chart.

2. For $ETH , set a short position at 3650 with a 50-point stop, and re-establish a short position at 3820 if it breaks down. The targets are 3120/2820, exiting in two batches. Due to the impact of the Prague upgrade, there is an opportunity to go long on the Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate; however, there is a certain probability that this exchange rate will retest 0.031 to form a bottom and wash out before making a significant surge to around 0.05. If that happens, Ethereum will return to around 2820. It is worth mentioning that since the Prague upgrade is a certain event and has clearly started to be speculated, it will inevitably turn into bearish after the good news is priced in. The main short currency this Q2 will be Ethereum.

3. For $SOL , set a short position around 219, exiting in two batches at 166/144; if you can't get in, that's fine.