1, Most institutions' optimistic predictions about Bitcoin are primarily based on the assumption that it will become part of the U.S. national reserve. If Bitcoin can be included in the U.S. national reserve and pension portfolios like gold, then the implementation of this policy could bring at least $90 to $130 billion in incremental funds to Bitcoin.
2, It's not easy for Trump to push Bitcoin to become part of the national reserve. Currently, the most likely way is through signing an executive order directing the U.S. Treasury to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to directly purchase Bitcoin. Although this move bypasses congressional approval, it may still face challenges from congressional oversight.
3, The high U.S. Treasury yields and government spending cuts may be the most uncertain 'black swan' factors in 2025.
4, The positive impact of Trump's new crypto policy has not been fully digested by the market, but these factors have brought more trading opportunities. For example, trading opportunities in Bitcoin swing trading and asset tokenization, AI, DeFi, and other niche areas. Overall, Bitcoin's price increase may struggle to exceed 60%, but a rise of 30%-40% (122,000-130,000) is still worth expecting.
