This article is mainly based on predictions regarding on-chain trading and investment, for thought only.
Article author: defioasis
Article compiled by: Colin Wu
2024 may be the most significant year for on-chain development following DeFi Summer, with narrative-driven investment opportunities emerging on-chain. According to the author's observations, as the concept of 'everything can be Meme' becomes more entrenched and Pump Fun quickly takes a dominant position in asset issuance, Memes can start from 0, while the market cap ceiling for on-chain space (without listing on leading CEXs) is roughly $1 billion, indicating that there is already sufficient profit space for regular users; leading CEXs are instead becoming the last link for exiting on-chain investments. Due to escalating conflicts with VCCoin, new assets listed on leading CEXs often perform poorly; older coins that have already been listed on leading CEXs mostly struggle, with team dynamics lacking or unable to keep up with market changes, in a state of waiting for unlocks.
This article is mainly based on predictions regarding on-chain trading and investment, focusing on on-chain sub-sectors, and should only be considered as the author's superficial predictions, not as any investment advice, and is for thought only.
1. DEX/CEX monthly Vol ratio will exceed 20% for the first time
According to data from The Block, DEX trading volume exceeded $320 billion in December 2024, setting a record for the highest monthly trading volume, with a year-on-year growth of over 200%; the DEX/CEX ratio reached 11.64% in December 2024, an increase compared to 9.55% in December 2023, and the monthly trading volume ratio for DEX/CEX peaked at 13.86%. As Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools led by CEX continue to optimize, it may accelerate the adoption of on-chain trading; the popularity of the Meme sector and the wealth effect are key factors driving users from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market capitalization of AI Agents/AI Meme will exceed that of the peak period of NFTs, with at least one AI Agents token's market capitalization surpassing $10 billion
AI Agents and tokenization combined is the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024, with various types of AI Agents emerging. From the initial chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) opening the Pandora's box of AI Agents, to the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it creating the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on large language models, it has only been a matter of months.
Currently, there are at least several frameworks including ai16z — Eliza, Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro — Zerepy, and Dolion Framework in development and operation, especially ai16z — Eliza and Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework have formed a relatively strong ecological moat, with various sub-tokens of AI Agents rapidly being introduced to the market.
CoinGecko data shows that the total market capitalization of AI Agents-related tokens has reached $12 billion, with Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL serving as a trading pair token similar to SOL in the Solana network, driving the prosperity of the ecosystem along with sub-tokens like AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA, making it the highest market capitalization AI Agents-related token at $3.5 billion.
3. It is expected that there will be 3–5 vertical sectors based on Pump Fun launching
Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad for quickly deploying tokens at extremely low costs on the Solana network, launching thousands of Memecoins daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have started to follow suit, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as Tron network's SunPump, Aptos network's Uptos, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.
In addition, the Memecoin sector is gradually growing, with the concept of 'everything can be Meme' becoming stronger, leading to a more segmented demand and the gradual evolution of vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focusing on AI Agents and Pump Science focusing on DeSci. AI Agents have already become a $10 billion sector, and DeSci is also showing potential with Binance's emphasis on DeSci and the listing of representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this is driven by the need for decentralized currency issuance and rapid asset issuance under different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve to create more segmented sectors.
4. At least 5 native Base ecosystem tokens to launch on Binance spot
As a barometer, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT but has not yet launched any native spot trading for the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base is more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals series and Farcaster series, with the market capitalization of the Virtuals series ecosystem approaching $5 billion, taking a leading position in Crypto x AI Agents. The Base ecosystem may be the highest odds track for betting on listings at leading exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.
As a public chain under the compliant exchange Coinbase in the United States, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open a fiat channel from Base — USDC to bank accounts. With the official establishment of the Trump administration, if favorable policies for Crypto are promoted, Coinbase and Base may be the first to benefit from the dividends. In addition, with Base leader Jesse Pollak officially joining Coinbase's executive team in October and leading Coinbase Wallet, the importance of the Base network should further increase in Coinbase's strategic blueprint.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities reaching over a market capitalization of $1 billion
Hyperliquid has significantly increased community engagement and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge assets exceed $2 billion USDC, equivalent to a 15th-ranked exchange; the platform token HYPE's total market capitalization once exceeded $10 billion, with FDV surpassing $30 billion.
From the development path of CEX, especially the relatively young CEXs, most started with excellent performance and liquidity from contracts, but the true brand moat is formed by the wealth effect brought by exclusive spot trading. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards bring possibilities for the introduction of exclusive assets, which are capabilities that previous attempts at on-chain exchanges from contracts to spot trading did not have. HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at the time of issuance. In the face of difficulties and high costs in listing on leading CEXs, starting auctions for spot positions on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. Known projects that have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki — Anime (ANIME).
Currently, the main market capitalization and trading volume of Hyperliquid's spot are concentrated in HYPE, with only 2 others exceeding $100 million in market capitalization. With a high market capitalization of HYPE, more funds are needed for price surges; the platform's strong collaboration with certain excellent exclusive projects to create the wealth effect of exclusive assets is obviously more cost-effective, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the increase in trading volume and reputation of Hyperliquid.
