Author: defioasis
Editor: Colin Wu
2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after the DeFi Summer, with narrative-based investment opportunities emerging endlessly on-chain. According to the author's observation, as everything can be a Meme becomes more ingrained, and Pump Fun's rapid asset issuance occupies a mainstream position, Memes can start from 0, and (without launching on top CEX) the market cap ceiling for on-chain space is roughly $1 billion. For ordinary users, there is already sufficient profit space on-chain, and top CEX has instead become the last link for exiting on-chain investments. Due to the intensifying conflict between VCCoin and the community, new assets launched on top CEX often perform poorly; while older coins already listed on top CEX mostly struggle, with team motivation lacking or unable to keep up with market changes, remaining in a state of waiting for unlocking.
This article is mainly based on predictions made regarding on-chain trading and investment, focusing on on-chain niche tracks, serving only as the author's superficial predictions and not as any investment advice, for contemplation only.
1. The DEX/CEX monthly volume ratio will exceed 20% for the first time.
According to The Block data, DEX trading volume exceeded $320 billion in December 2024, setting a record for the highest monthly volume in history, with a year-on-year growth of over 200%; in December 2024, the DEX/CEX ratio reached 11.64%, an increase from 9.55% in December 2023, and the monthly trading volume ratio of DEX/CEX reached a peak of 13.86%. With the continuous optimization of Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools led by CEX, it may accelerate the adoption of on-chain trading; the popularity of the Meme track and the wealth effect are among the important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market cap of AI Agents/AI Meme will exceed the peak period of NFTs, with at least one AI Agents token reaching a market cap of over $10 billion.
The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024, with various types of AI Agents emerging one after another. From the initial chat-based bot Truth Terminal (GOAT) opening the Pandora's box of AI Agents to the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team creating a one-click deployment framework for AI Agents and their tokens based on large language models called Eliza, all occurred within a short span of months.
Currently, there are at least several frameworks in development and operation in the market, including ai16z — Eliza, Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro — Zerepy, and Dolion Framework, particularly ai16z — Eliza and Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework have formed a relatively strong ecological moat, with various sub-tokens of AI Agents rapidly being投入市场.
CoinGecko data shows that the current total market cap of AI Agents-related tokens has reached $12 billion, with Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL acting as a trading pair token similar to SOL on the Solana network on the Base network, alongside sub-tokens like AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA, driving the prosperity of the ecosystem and nurturing the VIRTUAL parent token, making it the highest market cap AI Agents-related token, reaching $3.5 billion.
3. Expected to have 3-5 vertical launch tracks based on Pump Fun.
Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad for rapidly deploying tokens at extremely low costs on the Solana network, with thousands of Memecoins launched daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to emulate and launch similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as Tron network's SunPump, Aptos network's Uptos, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.
In addition, the Memecoin track is gradually growing, everything can be a Meme, the demand for segmentation is becoming stronger, gradually evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focused on AI Agents launches and Pump Science focused on DeSci. AI Agents have become a ten billion track, and DeSci has also emerged with Binance's emphasis on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this is based on the demand for decentralized currency issuance and rapid asset issuance under different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that in the future, more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into more niche tracks.
4. At least 5 Base ecosystem native tokens will be listed on Binance spot.
As a barometer, Binance has listed perpetual contracts for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any native spot from the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effects, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base will be more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals series and Farcaster series, among which the ecological market cap of the Virtuals series has approached $5 billion, placing it in a leading position within Crypto x AI Agents. The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on listings on top exchanges, and it is merely a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.
As a public chain under the US-compliant exchange Coinbase, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open the fiat currency channel from Base — USDC to bank accounts. With the formal inauguration of the Trump administration, if favorable policies for Crypto are implemented, Coinbase and Base may be the exchanges and networks that benefit first. Moreover, with Base leader Jesse Pollak officially joining the Coinbase executive team in October and leading Coinbase Wallet, the importance of the Base network in Coinbase's strategic blueprint should further rise.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities exceeding a market cap of $1 billion.
Hyperliquid significantly increased community engagement and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge assets exceed $2 billion USDC, equivalent to a 15th-ranked exchange; the platform token HYPE's total market cap once exceeded $10 billion, with FDV exceeding $30 billion.
From the development path of CEX, especially relatively young CEX, most start with excellent performance and liquidity from contracts, but the real brand moat is the wealth effect brought by exclusive spots. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards bring possibilities for the introduction of exclusive assets, a capability that previous attempts at on-chain exchanges transitioning from contracts to spot trading did not possess. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at issuance. In the face of difficulties and high pricing for listing on top CEX, starting with spot auction on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. Known projects that completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki — Anime (ANIME), among others.
Currently, the main market cap and trading volume of Hyperliquid spot are concentrated in HYPE, with only 2 others exceeding $100 million in market cap. With HYPE's relatively high market cap, lifting requires more funds; the platform's collaboration with certain excellent exclusive projects to jointly create the wealth effect of exclusive assets is evidently more cost-effective, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the increase in trading volume and reputation of Hyperliquid.
