BTC continues to hover within the consolidation range, with prices ready to break above 100k. It will continue to entangle within this range.
From the hourly perspective: Bitcoin is currently at the opening position of this declining bullish and bearish candlestick - around 97,200 USD, which is also a dense area of chips. If it can stabilize at 97,000 USD, it will have significant implications for the future.
Bitcoin has not fully broken through yet, predicting two possible trends: breakout or pullback.
(1) Falling back again.
If it falls below 96,200 USD, it may form a double top, and further analyze the pullback.
(2) Strongly stabilize.
As long as we stabilize strongly today and break through this line, forming a higher high, it will be a very good entry position. Next, we look at 99,000 USD, and this line's trend is very clear.
Bitcoin continues to hover in the consolidation range. Currently, this position will continue to grind. It is a rebound of wave B, and the market will still experience a bottoming process of ups and downs, insisting that there will be a wave C decline.
We need to see how this triangle will close next.
Currently, there are no short positions. The higher levels are very clear, indicating bullish sentiment. The first trading day has shown strong upward momentum, setting a good tone. Furthermore, if it were to drop, the next range is also very clear, which is within this range. There are two lines within this range that can be considered as buying zones.
(1) Around 94,600 USD: the position of a previous small double bottom structure's neckline.
(2) Between 91,600 USD and 93,000 USD: the lower edge of the square box.
Let's look at some on-chain data to corroborate our analysis.
(1) Bitcoin long and short positions.
The long and short positions in Bitcoin are relatively balanced. Long positions are slightly more prevalent, so there is a possibility of another drop to clear out leverage. After clearing leverage, there might be a spike. If leverage is cleared, there could be a situation of a spike followed by a rapid rebound, so we need to place an order here.
(2)USDC、USDT supply
In the past 24 hours, USDT supply has further decreased by 190 million, while USDC supply has surged by 750 million, resulting in a total increase of 560 million in USDC + USDT supply. The marginal improvement in liquidity provides the necessary conditions for the bullish trend in the crypto market.
In conclusion, Bitcoin only has one last drop left, so the remaining bullets in hand should be prepared for the final bottom fishing at the position I mentioned, approximately between January 20 and January 27, which is also the most panicked adjustment phase. The expected restart time is around early February, building momentum for the next big surge. Before that, the trend will be a washout and consolidation, we can only control our positions.
Finally, a brief mention of altcoins. In the absence of market hotspots recently, funds have effectively flowed into on-chain AI and hype. Now that the market has somewhat returned, these short-term funds will flow out, but still remain strong targets. We need to pay attention to the rhythm when we make portfolio adjustments.
