With the end of the Christmas holidays in Europe and America, the temporary liquidity decline at the end of the year is beginning to end, liquidity is gradually improving, and buying in the cryptocurrency market is starting to rebound. Bitcoin, although it dropped to 93,000 dollars during the Christmas holiday, has now approached overall stabilization, rising from 94k to 96k, with a slight increase.
Bitcoin is expected to oscillate between 94K and 99K, which is a normal rebound, and everyone still needs to patiently wait for it to break through. If you bought Bitcoin at a low price before, when it reaches the 99K position, you might consider selling part of it and waiting for new buying opportunities. There are still quite a few people in the market who are bullish.
Long-term outlook
The market is currently experiencing short-term volatility and pullbacks. At the end of the year, some profit-taking funds at high positions will emerge, coupled with the market needing time to digest the Fed's possible hawkish shift and policy expectations to cut rate hikes early next year. In the short term, there is a lack of new driving forces, and prices may oscillate between 90,000 and 105,000 dollars.
Currently, the significant changes in macro expectations have led to a turning point in the market. In fact, it was the same on December 18 last year, when the dot plot and speech after the Fed meeting directly shifted the first rate cut expectation to June. So for altcoin investors and Bitcoin investors, the situation is very similar to the macro environment in March 2024 (when the first rate cut expectation was postponed to half a year later), which is why altcoins fell by 30% and Bitcoin dropped by 10% after the Fed meeting on the 18th.
Waiting for the consolidation phase to end, after funds re-enter and negative news is gradually digested, the market in the first half of the year will welcome a new round of rises in the first quarter!
As for the second half of 2025, we will talk about that later. If the U.S. economy does not collapse, it is likely that the fourth quarter will see the market peak. The current macro environment is different, and the top price should not reach as high as 200,000 or even 300,000 as the market speculates. It is expected that Bitcoin may break through the 120,000 dollar mark during this period, and in an optimistic scenario, it may even reach 150,000 to 200,000 dollars.
Looking back at historical cycles, Bitcoin bull markets usually enter a correction phase about 15-18 months after halving, which also means that the market is very likely to enter a correction phase after reaching new highs in mid-year or the second half of the year. The first half will continue the existing bull market rhythm, but mid-year and after the third quarter, we need to be cautious about peak pullback risks and grasp the timing to exit!
Recently, let's briefly talk about the situation of altcoins.
In the recent period when the market had no hotspots, funds effectively flowed into the AI sector, and AI, IO, AKT, etc., also began to show catch-up trends, with funds gradually flowing back to traditional AI projects.
Moreover, yesterday Binance launched contracts for ai16z, zerebro, and griffain.
This actually means that the AI sector has now entered a crazy phase, and there may be a demand for a pullback in the short term. Remember to recover your principal first, and the remaining profits can continue to run. Also, keep some bullets ready to respond to potential pullbacks.
In short, the market has somewhat returned, so the short-term funds in these tracks will flow out, but it still serves as a strong target, and we need to pay attention to the rhythm when reallocating.
Additionally, BIO will open at 6 PM tonight, as a representative currency in the biotechnology field, it is highly anticipated, worth paying attention to whether its opening performance can lead a wave of heat. From the over-the-counter prices on Bitget and Gate.io, BIO's current price is about 0.94 to 1 dollar, so those interested can consider a small position, as new coins in the crypto space are relatively easy to pump.
If you want to make money in this bull market, you must manage your positions based on your own funds!
If you have more funds, choose major coins like BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, which can basically capture the overall market's gains. Although the gains of these coins may not be particularly large, due to their large market capitalization, the profits are still considerable.
If you have little capital, then invest in MEME coins on the chain. However, this requires time to research, luck also plays a certain role, and patience is needed. You can invest a small amount for large returns, but also be prepared for risks, as timing and luck are very important.
If funds are moderate, you can combine both, allocating part to buy value coins, and another part can try MEME coins and leading altcoins in some sectors. But playing with MEME coins must be researched seriously, otherwise, it's easy to lose everything.
What value potential coins can be laid out at this stage?
First, Trump is about to take office on the 20th of this month, so we can prioritize laying out projects related to the U.S. in the next two weeks.
The relevant coins in the employment sector include RSR, ZRX, DYDX, HNS;
The Trump sector includes AAVE, ONDO, LINK;
The Grayscale sector includes LTC, BCH, ZEN;
The payment sector includes XRP, XLM, ADA, AGLD;
The Musk sector includes DOGE, PNUT, PEPE.
During the Bitcoin volatility, people can be greatly tortured because it is difficult to directly welcome a big bull market in a short time. At this point, do not be easily shaken out. If you are good at using leverage, you can increase your chips in a certain rebound market. The rest is to wait patiently. The market has just begun, holding coins patiently is the right way, do not operate blindly to reallocate, back and forth cutting losses will only make your chips less!