Solana [SOL] teve um forte retorno em 2023 e 2024, subindo de US$ 8 para US$ 264. No entanto, os analistas estão confusos quanto às perspectivas para as altcoins em 2025.
O campo otimista, liderado por Mert Mumtaz, fundador da plataforma de desenvolvimento Helius, baseada em Solana, acredita que o novo software cliente validador Firedancer e a aprovação do ETF podem ser catalisadores importantes.
Catalisadores de alta para SOL
Para quem não conhece, o cliente Firedancer foi projetado para lidar com 1 milhão de transações por segundo (tps) em condições ideais.
Também aumentará a confiabilidade da rede por meio de outro cliente validador se um dos clientes validadores encontrar um problema.
Interestingly, since Christmas, the market has become more optimistic that the SOL ETF will be approved in July 2025, with Polymarket odds soaring from 58% to 71%.
Thus, the ETF outlook and Firedancer could enhance SOL's value. However, consideration should also be given to the unlocking of over $2 billion worth of tokens in March 2025.
$2 billion SOL unlock warning
As one of the main supporters of the Solana chain, FTX's bankruptcy in 2022 was a major reason for SOL's drop to $8.
As part of the bankruptcy restructuring, Galaxy Digital and other investors acquired most of the defunct FTX estate SOL holdings at a discount.
However, they will be locked for a period, with the first unlock occurring in March 2025.
Messari data shows that 11.2 million SOL tokens worth over $2 billion will be unlocked in March 2025. This could trigger selling pressure in the market.
Moreover, SOL's performance in December lagged behind Ethereum [ETH], with some experts predicting this trend may continue into the first quarter of 2025.
In fact, an analyst stated that ETH might yield better returns than SOL, noting that the SOL/ETH ratio is weakening, which tracks the relative price performance of SOL against ETH.
"Undeniably, Solana is excellent, but the risk-reward for 2025 does not exist compared to ETH."
If SOL/ETH rises, then SOL's performance will outshine ETH, and vice versa. SOL/ETH has retreated to the channel range low; falling below this level may lead to more funds flowing from SOL to ETH.
However, a decisive breakout of the SOL/ETH channel low could provide an additional lifeline for SOL in 2025.
In short, SOL's outlook for 2025 seems to be at a crossroads, facing key bullish catalysts and resistance.$SOL