What happened?
According to data from the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of the Solana ETF being listed in the U.S. in 2025 has risen from 77% to 86%.
The market view is that after Trump takes office, he will become a driving force for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs.
If the Solana ETF wants to be successfully listed, it must adopt a structure similar to that of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, namely the 'Grantor Trust' structure, and avoid being classified as a security; otherwise, it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Polymarket predicts an 86% chance of the Solana ETF being listed in the U.S.
According to data released by the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket on New Year's Day, the initial probability of the Solana ETF being listed in the U.S. in 2025 was 77%. However, Matthew Sigel, the research director at asset management firm VanEck, responded that this probability was 'underestimated.'
As of the time of writing, the predicted probability on January 3 has indeed reached 86%. Foreign media (Cointelegraph) analyzed that Sigel's optimistic attitude reflects the industry's expectation for more cryptocurrency ETFs to be listed in the United States, especially following the election of pro-crypto Trump (Donald Trump) as President.
Trump has expressed that he wants to make the United States the 'world’s crypto capital.'
Trump's presidency serves as a driving force for the Solana ETF.
The listing of the Solana ETF is a major concern in the industry. Last June, VanEck and other competitors like 21Shares submitted relevant applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but were questioned by the SEC in August, indicating that Solana might be classified as a security rather than a commodity.
If cryptocurrencies are considered securities, the establishment and listing of ETFs will become more complex, as they need to comply with the strict regulations of U.S. securities law. The institutions issuing the ETFs must complete more compliance processes, such as submitting detailed documents, registration applications, and ensuring that transactions with investors comply with securities law requirements.
This controversy has affected the ETF launch plans of several asset management firms, but the market view is that a Trump victory will serve as a boost for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs. Furthermore, even before the November 2024 election, Sigel had predicted that the chances of the United States approving the Solana ETF in 2025 were 'very high.'
(Cointelegraph) pointed out that the currently listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the United States use a special 'Grantor Trust' structure, which is suitable for funds that simply hold a single commodity. If the Solana ETF wants to be successfully listed, it must adopt a similar structure and avoid being classified as a security; otherwise, it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Whether the Solana ETF can be successfully listed will be a key point in 2025 when Trump officially takes over as President of the United States.
Sources: Cointelegraph, Coinpedia
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