Author: Alex O’Donnell, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Bai Shui, Golden Finance
Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, stated that the likelihood of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being listed in the U.S. this year is even higher than the optimistic predictions of popular prediction markets.
On January 1, the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket indicated that the likelihood of a U.S. Solana ETF listing in 2025 is about 77%. In an article on platform X, Sigel described Polymarket's prediction as 'underestimated.'
Sigel's optimism reflects the industry's expectation of more cryptocurrency ETFs listed in the U.S. after Donald Trump's victory in the November election. The pro-cryptocurrency Trump has stated that he wants to make the U.S. the 'crypto capital of the world.'
The prediction market works by allowing users to trade contracts related to specific events, with prices dynamically fluctuating based on expected outcomes. According to data from the Polymarket website, as of January 2, its expected ETF listing probability has risen to about 84%.
Listing prospects are good
In June, VanEck and competitor asset management firm 21Shares sought permission from U.S. regulators to list a spot Solana ETF.
Reports indicate that in August, the Securities and Exchange Commission questioned the asset management company's plans, citing concerns that SOL is a security rather than a commodity.
BTC, ETF ETFs are the only two cryptocurrencies approved for trading on U.S. exchanges, using a non-typical 'grantor trust' structure, which is usually designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. The issuer indicates that success may depend on whether the proposed Solana ETF can meet a similar structure.
Industry analysts believe that Trump's victory in the presidential election has opened the green light for more than six proposed cryptocurrency ETFs waiting for regulatory approval to list in the U.S.
Reports indicate that shortly after Trump won the U.S. presidential election last November, Sigel stated that the chances of the U.S. approving the SOL ETF in 2025 are now 'very high.'
The prediction platform's view on the cryptocurrency market
According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency prediction platform, with a trading volume of nearly $2 billion just in December.
During the November U.S. elections, prediction platforms were more accurate than traditional polls, predicting not only Trump's victory but also his party's sweep of the U.S. House and Senate.
Predictors are betting that 2025 will be a brilliant year for the cryptocurrency market, with BTC and ETH reaching all-time highs and several new types of cryptocurrency ETFs being listed in the U.S.
