Author | defioasis
Editor | Colin Wu
The year 2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after the DeFi Summer, with narrative investment opportunities emerging continuously on-chain. According to the author’s observation, as the concept of everything can be a Meme becomes more entrenched and Pump Fun's rapid asset issuance takes the mainstream stage, Memes can start from 0, and (in the absence of launching on top CEXs) the market cap limit for on-chain space is approximately 1 billion US dollars. For ordinary users, there is already sufficient profit space on-chain, while top CEXs have become the final link for on-chain investment exits. Due to the intensifying contradictions between VCCoin and the community, new assets launched on top CEXs often perform poorly; while older coins that have already launched on top CEXs mostly struggle, with teams lacking motivation or unable to keep up with market changes, remaining in a state of waiting for unlocks.
This article is mainly based on predictions made regarding on-chain trading and investment, focusing on segmented on-chain tracks. It serves only as the author's shallow prediction and should not be considered as any investment advice, merely for contemplation.
1. The DEX/CEX monthly volume ratio will exceed 20% for the first time.
According to The Block data, in December 2024, DEX trading volume exceeded 320 billion US dollars, setting a historical record for the highest monthly volume, with a year-on-year growth of over 200%; the DEX/CEX ratio in December 2024 reached 11.64%, an increase from 9.55% in December 2023, and the highest monthly trading volume ratio for DEX/CEX in 2024 reached 13.86%. With continuous optimization of Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools led by CEX, this may accelerate the adoption of on-chain trading; the heat of the Meme track and the wealth effect are important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market cap of AI Agents/AI Meme will exceed at least the peak period of NFT, with one AI Agents token's market cap exceeding 10 billion US dollars.
The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024, with various types of AI Agents emerging one after another. From the initial chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) opening Pandora's box for AI Agents to the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it creating the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on large language models, it has only been a matter of a few months.
Currently, there are at least several frameworks including ai16z — Eliza, Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro — Zerepy, and Dolion Framework under development and operation in the market. Especially, ai16z — Eliza and Virtuals Protocol — Game Framework have formed relatively strong ecological moats, with various sub-tokens of AI Agents rapidly being put into the market.
CoinGecko data shows that the total market cap of AI Agents-related tokens currently reaches 12 billion US dollars, with Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL acting as a trading pair token similar to SOL for the Solana network on the Base network, along with subs like AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA, driving the prosperity of the ecosystem and nurturing the VIRTUAL parent token, making it the highest market cap AI Agents-related token at 3.5 billion US dollars.
3. It is expected that there will be 3-5 vertical tracks based on Pump Fun launching.
Pump Fun, as a launchpad for deploying tokens at an extremely low cost on the Solana network, has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year, with thousands of Memecoins launching daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks are also beginning to imitate, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as Tron network's SunPump, Aptos network's Uptos, and Farcaster-based Clanker on the Base network.
In addition, the Memecoin track is gradually expanding, with everything becoming a Meme, and the demand for segmentation is becoming increasingly strong, gradually evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focused on AI Agents and Pump Science focused on DeSci. AI Agents have already become a 10 billion dollar track, and DeSci is also revealing its potential alongside Binance's emphasis on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this is based on the demand for decentralized issuance of tokens and rapid asset issuance under different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into more segmented tracks in the future.
4. At least 5 native tokens from the Base ecosystem will be listed on Binance spot.
As a benchmark, Binance has listed perpetual contracts for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any native spot from the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effects, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base is more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals and Farcaster systems, where the market cap of the Virtuals system ecosystem has approached 5 billion US dollars, leading the Crypto x AI Agents sector. The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on the listing of top exchanges, and the launch of the first Base ecosystem spot on Binance is only a matter of time.
As a public chain under the US-compliant exchange Coinbase, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to establish a fiat currency channel from Base — USDC to bank accounts. With the official rise of the Trump administration, if favorable policies for Crypto are implemented, Coinbase and Base may be the first exchanges and networks to enjoy the dividends. Furthermore, as Base leader Jesse Pollak officially joined the Coinbase executive team in October and leads Coinbase Wallet, the importance of the Base network should further increase in Coinbase's strategic vision.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities reaching a market cap of over 1 billion.
Hyperliquid has significantly increased community participation and user attention through a large-scale HYPE token airdrop and wealth effect. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge assets exceed 2 billion USDC, equivalent to a 15th-ranked exchange; at one point, the total market cap of the platform token HYPE exceeded 10 billion US dollars, with FDV even surpassing 30 billion US dollars.
From the development path of CEX, especially relatively young CEXs, most started with excellent performance and liquidity from contracts, but the true brand moat is formed by the wealth effect brought by exclusive spot trading. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards bring possibilities for the introduction of exclusive assets, a capability that previous attempts at on-chain exchanges transitioning from contracts to spot trading did not possess. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens through liquidity embedded at the time of issuance. In a situation where it is relatively difficult and costly to launch on top CEXs, launching through spot auction on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. Known projects that have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki — Anime (ANIME).
Currently, the main market cap and trading volume of Hyperliquid's spot are concentrated on HYPE, with only 2 others exceeding 100 million US dollars in market cap. With HYPE's high market cap, lifting requires more funds; collaborating with some excellent exclusive projects to jointly create the wealth effect of exclusive assets is clearly more cost-effective, and HYPE will also benefit from the increase in Hyperliquid's trading volume and reputation.
