Bitcoin's trading volume is shrinking, price fluctuations are narrowing, and structural patterns are converging. Today or in the next day or two, a trend change will occur, upward trend change! BTC's market will not drop to around 86K like some pessimistic retail investors believe. Before Trump took office, there are three possible trends for BTC's future.
1) Completing the adjustment wave of the Elliott triangle, with the low point near the Fibonacci ascending channel at 0.236, around 91.5k, with slightly longer oscillation time, starting to rise next week;
2) Oscillating and accumulating above 0.236, with the low point also around 91.5k, starting to rise after New Year's Day;
3) Falling to the vicinity of the 0 axis, around 86,000, forming a head-and-shoulders bottom reversal structure, and then rising; based on the changes in long and short volume, I tend toward the first scenario, where Bitcoin oscillates and rises to historical highs.
The correction cycle for Ethereum and altcoins is about to end, entering the final stage of this bull market. From Trump's election to December 16, the price rose nearly one and a half months, increasing by about 75%, and then the market entered a correction phase that lasted less than half a month, with a pullback of 22% including a spike. Such corrections are typical in a bull market, and both Ethereum and altcoins will experience a similar correction cycle during the bull market rally. You can directly reference the correction from January 12 to 25, 2024, with a correction magnitude of 20%, and the time cycle is also similar. This stage is the same as now. Subsequently, there will be accelerated growth.
(1) The fear index has reached its lowest value since October.
After experiencing half a month of market cleansing and shaking the warehouse, ETH's trading volume has reached its lowest point since Trump's election, and even the coinglass fear index has also reached its lowest value since October. Especially after continuously drawing the door, this wave of market cleansing is nearing its end.
In recent days, Ethereum has repeatedly drawn the door, constantly shaking the warehouse, with two layers of targets. One is to clear the chips through violent fluctuations, and the second is to test the market. Testing the loyalty of the remaining chips; don't let them all run away in the end. The final result is reflected in the drastic decline in chip trading volume. (2)
Ethereum ETF funds are continuously pouring in, and chips are constantly changing hands.
It can be confirmed that the newly incoming funds are not from retail investors. January 2025 will be similar to February 2024, where Ethereum will welcome the final stage of the bull market, accelerating upward, and then ending.
(3) Bitcoin's market capitalization share continues to decline.
Bitcoin's market capitalization share continues to decline, and this round of the bull market is nearly over! What's left is the time for Ethereum and altcoins, it won't be far away! 2026 will definitely be a freezing point year, so seize the limited opportunities in 2025! ALL IN ETH and altcoins!
Today, the American coins led the rally, congratulations to XRP, XLM, ADA. Ethereum is at the end of triangle convergence; generally, after a sharp drop, the probability of triangle convergence downward is higher, but altcoins break upwards first, and it is expected that Ethereum will break upwards this time. Hope the altcoin season is really here.
That's all for today. Many people hope to set up a free group during the bull market phase. If you really can't play in the crypto circle, don't force yourself. Come find me for guidance, understand the latest information, plan, embrace the bull market, improve your winning rate, and say goodbye to being stuck at high positions.
