International gold prices have broken historical records 40 times this year.
International gold prices are expected to rise in 2024.
From the perspective of this year's overall trend, after two significant upward phases from mid-March to mid-April and from July to the end of October, international gold prices reached a historical high of 2801.8 USD/ounce on October 30.
Entering the second half of the year, concerns about economic recession and expectations for policy easing have become the main positive factors. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections have also driven safe-haven demand, influencing the trend of international gold prices and resulting in a significant positive effect from macro factors. From a fundamental perspective, the continuous purchasing behavior of global central banks, the ongoing growth of gold ETFs, and the increasing positions held by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) indicate that the effective demand for gold is on the rise, which also constitutes a positive impact.
Looking ahead to 2025, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, geopolitical conflicts, and the effectiveness of the new U.S. government's policy mix will be the main factors influencing the trend of international gold prices. Among them, the resilience of the U.S. economy may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate level for a long time. The ambiguity of interest rate direction may provide more opportunities for wide fluctuations in international gold prices.