The following text is organized from a series of Twitter Spaces #Dialogue with Traders, hosted by FC, founding partner of SevenX Ventures, Twitter @FC_0X0
Guest this episode: Sabi Brother, founder of CashCashBot, Twitter @SaBiBro666
Sabi Brother's trading journey: Transitioning from exchanges to on-chain strategies
Sabi Brother, a pioneer in the on-chain data-driven trading field. Born in Taiwan, he entered the cryptocurrency field in 2017 and joined the mainland exchange in 2019, working in its token listing department, focusing on on-chain data analysis and project due diligence (DD). This experience gave him a deep understanding of the industry while also providing a solid foundation for data analysis.
In 2022, he chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. Initially, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the NFT market gradually cooled, he keenly observed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted direction, concentrating his strategy on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analytical tools and trading bots to monitor on-chain address movements and generate trading signals.
Sabi Brother's trading strategy has distinct characteristics: it does not focus on narrative valuation but instead concentrates on on-chain monitoring and strict profit-taking and stop-loss rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear profit-taking and stop-loss strategies, trading can be free from the interference of subjective emotions.
At the same time, he pointed out that trading logic needs to be continuously optimized. Initially, he focused on the trading behaviors of on-chain smart money, then expanded his focus to team trading behaviors (conspiracy groups), and then to the key main force address behaviors of individual tokens. By deeply analyzing these on-chain activities, he continuously improves the accuracy of trading decisions.
Currently, Sabi Brother's main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL. These assets form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. Additionally, the recently outstanding #Moodeng has become an important milestone for him: achieving a 5000-fold return in a short period. But for Sabi Brother, the significance of $MOODENG goes beyond just returns.
The true value of MOODENG lies in verifying the effectiveness of its data-driven strategies. By tracking the on-chain behavior of the MOODENG main addresses, he confirmed the trading theory of 'following the main force'. This practical result not only enhances the credibility of his strategy but also provides valuable experiential support for future trading decisions.
How to use data and discipline to secure victory in trading?
In the trading process, Sabi Brother emphasizes the standardized strategy of 'doubling the capital, halving the losses', which is the core of his risk management. This strategy avoids market emotional interference through clear rules and verifies the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.
In trading, maintaining a win rate of over 33% is enough to achieve positive EV. For example:
• Profit-taking scenario: Sell all after the asset doubles, achieving a 100% return. • Stop-loss scenario: Sell all after the asset is halved, incurring a 50% loss.
Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term returns will show positive growth. Sabi Brother's strategy is based on probability, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset and avoiding being swayed by short-term market fluctuations.
At the same time, Sabi Brother's team developed a series of tools centered around data to provide users with in-depth insights into market hotspots and main force behaviors:
Token insider analysis (CashCash Bot)
Through big data, analyze the holding structure and address behavior of tokens. Its core functions include:
Main force behavior identification: Filter addresses with transfer associations or collective trading characteristics and classify them as 'gangs' or 'main force clusters'.
Snapshot and trend analysis: Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the holding concentration of tokens to identify whether the main force is absorbing chips.
Behavior model optimization: Combining the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or mixers) and on-chain capital flow trends to create accurate predictions of main force operations.
FOMO CALL signal
This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on the team's accumulated database of thousands of smart money addresses. When a group of historically high-performing addresses collectively buys a certain token within a short period in the market, FOMO CALL will issue a signal. This signal can help users quickly capture market hotspots and judge whether the token has potential short-term upside.
These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that the main force's absorption level of a certain token has reached a peak, while the FOMO CALL signal captures the collective buying behavior of several smart money, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tools, combined with the strategies of doubling the capital and halving the losses.
How to capture main force movements through data and take action?
In the cryptocurrency market, the main force absorbs chips and distributes profits, and during this process, the on-chain holding behavior will inevitably change. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the main force's behavior patterns through data. For example, during the absorption period, the main force exhibits specific on-chain behaviors that can be aggregated and transformed into trading signals.
However, when more people adopt similar strategies, the main force may adjust its strategies or even hide its behaviors. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify the main force's potential hidden behaviors. Sabi Brother believes this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.
Sabi Brother's strategy begins with tracking 'smart money'; these addresses typically achieve a win rate of over 40% in the market and realize significant returns. By filtering out these addresses with tools, he and his team established their own DAO and monitoring list to continuously monitor a group of high-performing address clusters.
The core methods of the strategy include:
Identifying collective actions: The team monitors that certain address clusters operate synchronously, including collective absorption and distribution behaviors. This pattern becomes the foundation of the strategy.
Position control: When following the main force, avoid entering the top 100 holding lists to remain low-key, so as not to affect the main force's trading rhythm. Typically, the buying position does not exceed 0.5% of the token's market value.
Signal response: When a cluster in the monitoring list shows collective entry into a certain token, the strategy follows up with small exploratory purchases to avoid prematurely exposing its own behavior.
Strategy case study: Moodeng's trading process
The successful trading of MOODENG marks an important milestone for Sabi Brother's team. In September 2024, the team monitored a long-term well-performing address cluster that entered MOODENG on a large scale and quickly absorbed chips. Based on the main force's past trading methods, the team maintained small-scale buying and gradually followed up.
During the trading process, the main force tests market buying and selling sentiment through multiple rallies and pullbacks, while ensuring the concentration of chips is not diluted. Sabi Brother monitors the changes in the holding ratio of these main force addresses in real-time, discovering that the main force always absorbs chips again after each pullback. This phenomenon enhances the team's bullish confidence in MOODENG.
Ultimately, MOODENG rose from an initial small market cap to hundreds of millions, and the team not only gained high returns but also validated the trading theory of 'following the main force' through this process.
How to seize the capital rotation opportunities in the crypto market?
The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market significantly impact the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of funds will vary at different periods:
Mainstream coin rotation: Funds may concentrate on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, during which on-chain liquidity is scarce and trading volumes are low.
Emerging public chains and hotspot switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent transfer from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. Due to high TPS and low gas fees, Solana has become a hotbed for high-frequency trading and innovative projects.
Meme track and narrative shift: In more segmented tracks, such as meme tokens, funds can also rotate due to updates from launchpads or changes in narratives. For example, from Solana’s high-frequency PVP market to new projects on the Base chain, the focus of market funds is constantly shifting.
Using on-chain data tools like Dune, Sabi Brother's team monitors on-chain trading volumes and capital flows in real-time to assist decision-making. For example, recent capital rotations indicate that the virtual economy on emerging chains (like AI Agent and Virtuals) has become a hotspot, suggesting that the team needs to adjust positions in a timely manner to follow capital trends.
Why can calmness and discipline determine the success or failure of trading?
Bull markets provide plenty of opportunities but also come with high risks. In such markets, maintaining calmness and discipline is crucial:
Independent judgment: Sabi Brother emphasizes that trading should focus on verifying strategies rather than catering to market sentiment. He points out that emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily lead traders to be misled by the narrative of an 'eternal bull market', resulting in excessive optimism.
Timely profit-taking: A major pitfall in a bull market is the reluctance to sell. Even when the market rises, taking partial profits is key to maintaining a long-term advantage. Even if higher points are missed, controlling risk always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.
Stable cash flow support: Cash flow is the anchor for calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through core business or quantitative funds can reduce dependence on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more relaxed.
In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, which may include: fear of missing out, returns falling short of expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response, Sabi Brother also shared his coping methods:
Focusing on the trading framework: Trading that exceeds the framework, even if profitable, is not considered successful. The core of trading is to verify strategies and refine understanding, rather than temporary gains.
Creating a calm communication environment: Avoid being disturbed by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.
Remember the cyclicality of the market: Sabi Brother points out that a bull market is not 'eternal', but a cycle of opportunity and risk. Even with strong bullish sentiment, one must remain vigilant about risks, especially when a single narrative appears in the market without clear supporting logic.
How to quickly enhance cognitive levels?
Sabi Brother believes that the core of personal growth lies in upgrading social circles; communicating with high-cognition individuals can significantly accelerate one's cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking out of the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding individuals is an important way to improve oneself.
In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he finds his own breakthrough points by continuously learning from the successful experiences and methods of others. The influence of communication is subtle. The actions and results of successful people around can inspire him to think and further optimize his own path. He advocates 'upward socializing' to discover more possibilities by interacting with better individuals.
He also mentioned that 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' is a book that has profoundly influenced his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth and teaches him to think about wealth management from the perspective of 'making money work for you'. He noted that this book broke the traditional educational concept of 'stable jobs' and inspired him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investment.
Besides books, his progress also benefits from other sources of knowledge. For example:
1. On-chain analysis KOL
Ai Aunty @ai_9684xtpa: Focused on on-chain data analysis, providing in-depth market insights.
Mr. Mai @Michael_Liu93: Based on market behavior and human nature analysis, explaining the logic of the main force's behavior from another perspective.
2. Social media and communities: By following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, quickly capture market trends and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with team members.
In addition, Sabi Brother believes that the combination of cognition across Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2 to explore how to replicate successful models in Web3. This interdisciplinary thinking keeps him ahead in exploring new tracks.
Summary and recommendations
Data-driven and continuous optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been validated as feasible in practice but require continuous dynamic tuning. Moreover, whether it's the rotation of on-chain hotspots or shifts in narrative tracks, sensitivity and adaptability must be maintained.
Patience and discipline: Successful trading relies not only on strategies but also on a stable mindset. Whether in a bull or bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment is essential to gaining long-term advantages.
Establishing cognitive and cash flow pillars: By using stable cash flow as a foundation, traders can face market fluctuations with a more relaxed attitude. By 'continuously learning' and 'upgrading social circles', they keep themselves at the forefront of knowledge.
