According to ChainCatcher news, QCP has released its daily market observation stating that, as expected, we have seen typical end-of-quarter volatility sell-offs, with volatility declining by 2-3 volatility points since last Friday's record options expiration.
Although BTC has been consolidating near the bottom of a one-month range and this month's returns are mediocre, both BTC and ETH performed well in the fourth quarter: BTC rose by 48%, while ETH rose by 30%. However, it may still be too early to summarize this quarter. Just yesterday, Saylor released his BTC purchasing tracker again, which may signal another round of purchases to further support prices.
Although there may be another round of purchases, we do not have high expectations for the market during the New Year period, especially in a healthy funding situation. The average return in January (+3.3%) is relatively similar to December (+4.8%), and we expect spot prices to remain in this range in the short term until a rebound begins in February.
Options flow also reflects similar sentiment, with front-end volatility gradually decreasing, and the risk reversal is mainly driven by strong demand for call options in March, partly due to large purchases of March options last Friday.
