Author: hitesh.eth
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Purely practical insights, no false hopes.
Before you start reading, I hope you can temporarily set aside any preconceived notions and take a few minutes to carefully look at what I am about to share.
From a macro perspective, the investment themes of Web3 can be divided into two major categories: underlying infrastructure (infra) and application scenarios (apps).
Investing can essentially be divided into two types: one type looks unremarkable in the short term but could yield substantial returns in the long run; the other type is exciting in the short term but may ultimately be worthless.
Most cryptocurrency investors enter this market in pursuit of quick and substantial returns and are willing to take on the corresponding risks.
Therefore, people tend to choose cyclical investments—these investments are usually short-term and only effective during specific bull market cycles.
2025 will be the 'regulatory year' for the cryptocurrency space.
The United States and some other major economies plan to introduce relevant regulations domestically. The introduction of these regulations will not only enhance the trust of traditional investors (especially the older generation) but will also filter out a small number of truly promising cryptocurrencies—only those with solid fundamentals and stable cash flow support will stand out.
We can foresee a wave of new traditional investors entering the market. These investors hold 'old money' and will venture into the cryptocurrency space for the first time.
They will not invest blindly just because of market hype; instead, they will study projects carefully, read reports and data thoroughly, and will only make investment decisions when it makes logical sense.
In this context, decentralized finance (DeFi) will become an investment theme highly favored by traditional investors, along with the first layer protocols (L1) of blockchain.
However, due to the lower market cap ceilings of DeFi projects, their growth potential is greater and is highly aligned with fundamentals and data. This year, some DeFi projects have already generated over $100 million in revenue, which will undoubtedly attract the attention of traditional investors.
Traditional investors have massive amounts of capital, and sufficient funding is key to the market's healthy growth. Don't forget, many institutional investors are also dominated by traditional investors.
It is foreseeable that DeFi will ultimately become an important layout direction for top institutional investors.
BlackRock has already begun collaborating with DeFi projects, and this trend is gradually taking shape.
DeFi is not a cyclical investment; it is more like a long-term investment, similar to how investors viewed BTC and ETH in the past.
The long-term potential of AAVE may be viewed as comparable to that of ETH.
When investing in blue-chip DeFi projects, you can focus on long-term development;
When you choose to invest in a brand-new DeFi native project, you can consider short-term gains, as these projects may also deliver multiple times or even higher returns.
In a crypto market dominated by DeFi, many emerging projects will emerge one after another, and some established projects will regain attention. You will see a wave of price increases around these projects.
In the DeFi space, many blue-chip applications (like Uniswap) are planning to transform into underlying infrastructure projects. This transformation will further enhance the value potential of tokens, and some projects may announce adjustments to their fee mechanisms next year, so you need to be prepared for this.
These changes will inject strong momentum into the narrative of DeFi development.
I expect DeFi to dominate at least two quarters next year, just like AI has performed this year.
As for AI, I believe that 2025 will be a year when AI faces widespread criticism in popular culture due to its rapid and uncontrolled expansion.
The discussion of 'Responsible AI' will become a focal point.
Market activities around crypto AI infrastructure, AI agents, and Initial Agentic Offerings may enter an adjustment period due to the narrative of 'Responsible AI.'
But before that, I expect AI agents to experience a round of bubble-like growth.
There are currently 13,000 agents in the market, and I expect this number to grow to at least 100,000.
After that, we may enter a bubble phase and see it burst the following year.
Which quarter this occurs in will depend on the timing of AI regulatory-related events.
Regulation will also trigger interest in privacy infrastructure, so some major projects involving confidential DeFi, privacy computing, privacy storage, and privacy inference will receive more attention, which will also reflect in their performance (PA).
The meme market will remain active.
Although regulators may not support it, people will always find ways to enter because it is impossible to completely block it.
Speculators will continue to seek opportunities among the 100,000 new coins added every day.
However, some established memes, such as DOGE and PEPE, may attract the attention of more serious investors.
Even if you don't like memes, you should consider allocating a portion of your investment exposure to them.
2025 will also be a year for mobile Web3 wallets and super applications to shine.
Recently, a Web3 wallet company called Exodus went public on NASDAQ with a valuation of $1.2 billion, which may drive a speculative boom for tokens related to Web3 wallets with strong revenue performance next year.
AI and DeFi will become the two core narratives of next year:
DeFi is expected to dominate;
AI agents may enter a bubble phase;
Meme speculation will attract more participants;
Privacy and DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) will emerge in a certain quarter;
Web3 wallets will gain more attention and promote mainstream adoption through more convenient user guidance and better experiences.
That's all I have to share.
Please note, I am neither an astrologist nor an expert in the cryptocurrency field. I am just an ordinary person with some random thoughts about the market, so don't take my views too seriously.
