The next short-term market variable influencer is the U.S. stock market:

Although the S&P and Nasdaq closed positively on a weekly basis, there was a rapid and comprehensive decline last Friday, mainly due to the following three reasons:

Quarter-end pension fund stock-bond rebalancing (short-term) The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has remained high, further breaking through 4.6%, compressing U.S. stock valuations (mid-term) The Federal Reserve is slowing down interest rate cuts,

At the same time, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly took a hawkish stance and may raise interest rates again in January,

The risk of narrowing U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials (long-term) If it is solely due to the first reason, there is no need to worry, and the market will improve in January. If it is due to the second and third reasons, it will cast a shadow over the rise of U.S. stocks, bringing concerns about sustained increases, which will only improve after future inflation expectations and the number of interest rate cuts become clearer.

However, the shadow over U.S. stocks is bound to be temporary and easily dissipated. Tech stocks have demonstrated strong profit capabilities in the past high-interest environment, and combined with the robust development of AI, there is indeed not much to worry about.

As Trump is about to take office in January, the probability of U.S. stocks performing poorly this month is not high, which also eliminates the downside risk for the cryptocurrency market's rebound.

This year's market is extremely challenging, with a pace as fast as lightning, and the control rate of altcoins remains high. Besides patiently waiting, there seems to be no other choice in the spot market. However, please remember that every difficult period is to welcome a better future. I firmly believe that 2025 will be a year of a major bull market. As long as we endure the current short-term difficulties, a super bull market will surely explode as promised!

The recent strength of ETH is a significant signal for the market. Although most altcoins have not yet started to surge, they have shown strong底部 signals, perhaps at this very moment, the market's vehicle has begun to enter the chapter of the altcoin season.

A major行情 is clearly approaching a critical juncture.