Mentor discusses hot topics:
The new week is also approaching the end of the year, and the overall market sentiment is like the weather this winter, cold and desolate. In two days, the bell for 2024 will ring. For this week, if there are no explosive news, the probability is that it will be a fluctuating downward situation, after all, the market needs fresh stories to ignite passion.
In the past week, the big pie slightly dipped around the 92k range. The seemingly insignificant price fluctuations are, in fact, a subtle struggle among the main forces. Retail investors have already cut their losses and run, and the remaining chips have all become trophies for the big players to test each other.
The current focus of the market has long shifted from harvesting leeks to whales pecking at each other. The chips thrown out by institutions such as Grayscale and Mentougou are precisely the 'delicacies' in the eyes of the main forces. Why? Because they can enter in batches over a long time span in the range of 90-110k to lower costs.
As for retail investors? No matter what, they cannot gain any benefits from this range of speculation. The mentor has said many times that the rhythm of the main force's dumping and pulling is not something ordinary people can easily predict.
In the past week, Bitcoin-related ETFs had a net outflow of $1.327 billion, the largest weekly outflow since the rise to 49k. Data does not lie, what does this indicate?
The probability is that the market may continue to adjust in the short term, breaking below the support range of 91000-92500, thus completing the breakdown adjustment. Why break? No break no stand, only by forcing retail investors to completely give up hope can the main force calmly buy the dip and start the next round of increase.
Looking at the turnover rate, the turnover data for the past week is only one-third of the weekend, which is similar to the state when the big pie was oscillating at 65k and 26k for a long time. In the words of the rivers and lakes: the market has already been 'ruined', the retail investors who should have run have run, and what remains is just a battle without gunpowder between the main forces.
Unless there is significant positive or negative news, the market will basically maintain this fluctuating downward rhythm. Even if retail investors still hold on to luck, believing that breaking below 90k will provide new buying opportunities, the main force clearly does not want to let people easily buy the dip.
From the current support level, if the big pie falls below 92520 this week, then the lower support can be seen between 89.6k-83.8k; if it holds above 92520, it may directly start a new round of increase from this line, with upper pressure concentrated at 10k integer level and the range of 102200.
The mentor's current view is that behind this adjustment, the overall bullish sentiment in the market has not changed. In other words, the future of the big pie is still bright, but short-term fluctuations cannot be underestimated. Because every pullback is to accumulate strength for the next more intense rise.
Mentor looks at trends:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 94300
Second resistance level: 94700
Support level reference:
First support level: 92500
Second support level: 91000
Today's recommendation:
The big pie has formed a bear flag pattern on a smaller level, and after the decline, a brief rebound occurred in the oversold area. The current expectation is that the third bottom of the triple bottom has risen and closed, which is seen as a positive signal.
However, since it is still in a downtrend, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of rebound and supplementary rise, as well as the resistance of the 20-day and 60-day moving averages. At the same time, pay attention to the resistance of the bear flag pattern's trapped positions, while maintaining a bearish view and looking for short-term rebound opportunities.
Additionally, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is a significant drop, and verify the formation of the triple bottom pattern. The rise in low points is also a positive signal for rebound, a risk-reward ratio range can be set. If important support levels are broken, it is necessary to adjust the view and respond flexibly to chart changes.
12.30 Mentor phase pre-positioning:
Long entry reference: 92000-92800 range light position long, if it retraces near 91000 can go long directly. Target: 94300-94700
Short entry reference: 96000-96500 range light position short. Target: 94700-94300