1. Market Observation
Keywords: ETH, BTC, MiCA
As the end of the year approaches, the market is filled with expectations and divergences about Bitcoin's performance in the coming years. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor revealed that the company holds 444,000 Bitcoins worth approximately $41.4 billion and hinted at further purchasing plans. El Salvador continues to increase its holdings, currently holding over 6,000 Bitcoins valued at $569 million. However, Bitcoin struggles to maintain the $100,000 support level, and sideways movement increases market uncertainty.
Crypto strategists predict that Bitcoin's bull market may end on a high note. Blockware Solutions expects Bitcoin could rise to between $150,000 and $400,000 by 2025, driven by Federal Reserve policy, corporate adoption, and Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan. NBA legend Scottie Pippen is even bolder, pointing to Bitcoin's next key target price at $1 million. However, the market is not entirely optimistic. Some analysts warn that Bitcoin may undergo short-term adjustments, even falling to $76,000. Additionally, Bill Gates continues to express skepticism about Bitcoin, criticizing its lack of productivity and suggesting potential risks as an asset class. The debate continues on whether the US will include Bitcoin in its financial reserves, and the balance between dollar hegemony and cryptocurrency opportunities remains to be seen.
In the Ethereum market, futures data shows that selling pressure has eased, with signs of recovery emerging. Meanwhile, following the transfer of 200,000 ETH to Kraken, some long-dormant old-style crypto wallets have become active again, indicating that the crypto market is nurturing hopes amid volatility. The crypto world remains full of uncertainties, but it also indicates that the next transformative moment is approaching.
2. Key Data (as of December 30, 09:05 HKT)
S&P 500: 5,970.84 points (year-to-date +25.18%)
Nasdaq: 19,722.03 points (year-to-date +31.38%)
10-year US Treasury yield: 4.626% (year-to-date +74.51 basis points)
US Dollar Index: 108.00 (year-to-date +6.86%)
Bitcoin: $934,00.96 (year-to-date +120.99%), daily spot trading volume of $30.27 billion
Ethereum: $3,380.99 (year-to-date +48.19%), daily spot trading volume of $13.93 billion
3. ETF flows (December 27 EST)
Bitcoin ETF: -$297.75 million
Ethereum ETF: +$47.77 million
4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)
ISM Manufacturing PMI (January 3, 11:00 PM)
Actual: Pending announcement / Previous: 48.4% / Expected: 48.3%
5. Hot News
This week's preview | FTX's claims process will begin on January 3, 2025; (MiCA) comes into effect
This week's macro outlook: The market tends to remain calm during the New Year holiday, but economic data may challenge the Federal Reserve
Report: 51 countries/regions ban crypto assets, some economies regulate through legal adjustments or re-legislation
Hamster Kombat will build an L2 blockchain on the TON chain
FLock announces token economics and airdrop plan: 66.7% allocated to the community and ecosystem
The chairman of Germany's FDP calls for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to be included in central bank reserves
Data: Tokens like SUI, OP, ZETA will see significant unlocks next week, with SUI unlock valued at approximately $270 million
Tether CEO retweets several posts stating that USDT will not be deemed illegal in Europe on December 30
Modular blockchain Sophon completes mining migration and opens mainnet mining
El Salvador's Bitcoin reserves reach 6,000 coins, valued at approximately $569 million
VIRTUAL's market cap surpasses $3.428 billion, rising to 47th place in the cryptocurrency market cap rankings
ai16z proposes an upgraded token economics model, suggesting the launch of a Launchpad
Michael Saylor: 60 companies hold over 590,000 BTC
Galaxy Research Annual Forecast: BTC will break $150,000 in the first half of the year, ETH will exceed $5,500
The IRS requires DeFi brokers to report digital asset sales profits and collect user transaction information starting in 2027
Supported by OSL - Hong Kong's largest over-the-counter trading platform, continuously providing regulated digital asset services since 2018.
