O Japão enfrenta uma tempestade económica à sombra da turbulência monetária global. E o Bitcoin [BTC], o ouro digital, pode ser a solução ou é apenas um empreendimento especulativo?

À medida que a Reserva Federal e a administração Trump se envolvem num debate acalorado sobre as reservas de Bitcoin, o Japão juntou-se ao cabo de guerra. Contudo, com o iene a cair para o mínimo de cinco meses face ao dólar, a cautela do Japão pode estar a abrir a porta a uma maior inovação financeira.

O dólar americano domina, como o iene japonês pode avançar?

Ainda no dia 18 de Dezembro, a decisão da Reserva Federal de cortar as taxas de juro apanhou o mercado desprevenido e o índice do dólar dos EUA disparou para o máximo de dois anos de 108,54. Esta mudança foi como uma “explosão nuclear” no sector financeiro. As moedas globais, como o iene japonês, caíram imediatamente num vórtice de depreciação, com o iene japonês a lutar para terminar no mínimo de cinco meses de 158 ienes por dólar americano.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price plummeted 14% in three days, reflecting the current market's high risk and volatility. However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) remains committed to maintaining interest rates, attempting to stabilize against chaos.

However, this 'stabilization' strategy may just be a stopgap. With inflation soaring to 2.9% in November 2024, the highest level since 2023, Japan's economy is suffering from the dual blow of soaring import prices and a worsening demographic crisis.

Bitcoin reserves: a temporary fix or a fundamental solution?

Under the intensifying economic pressure, can Bitcoin become Japan's tool to hedge against dollar fluctuations?

Advantages:

  • Inflation Hedge: Bitcoin's supply cap (21 million coins) makes it a natural barrier against currency depreciation.

  • Decentralization Advantage: No need to rely on traditional financial systems, providing more alternative possibilities for sovereign currencies.

Disadvantages:

  • Volatility Risk: Bitcoin's price swings dramatically, which may be difficult for a stability-focused economy like Japan to accept.

  • Short-term Speculation: Price uncertainty may trigger excessive market reactions, increasing economic risks.

Nevertheless, Japan's situation makes the feasibility of Bitcoin reserves seem less distant. Especially as major global exchanges like Bitfinex accumulate large amounts of Bitcoin, their reserve amount has reached $230 million, a new high in nearly three years.

Global Insight: Will Bitcoin become the new foreign reserve choice for various countries?

As the dominance of the dollar strengthens further, economies around the world are forced to seek alternatives. Bitcoin, as a tool for 'de-dollarization', is gradually entering the sights of more countries.

If Bitcoin's price can stabilize over the next year, it may not only become a powerful supplement to foreign exchange reserves but could even enter the mainstream payment methods.

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