Since early November when Trump's victory became 'certain,' the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, has entered a strong expectation of the 'U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.' Clearly, the market will focus heavily on the implementation of this commitment after Trump takes office in 2025. Some analysts have stated that this will break the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle, meaning that any 'interruption' in the future could lead to significant market fluctuations. What we can do now is to pay attention to its advancement dynamics, anticipate possible implementation timelines, and make appropriate preparations.

01 Latest Progress

The issue of the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' has actually been proposed and discussed before the U.S. presidential election. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the (Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act) on July 31, 2024, which suggests purchasing 200,000 Bitcoins annually, reaching 1 million within five years.

Subsequently, during the campaign, Trump promised to become the 'Cryptocurrency President' at a Bitcoin conference in the crypto industry, and the industry hopes he will fulfill his promise by creating a Bitcoin reserve through executive orders to ensure that the industry can access banking services and to establish a cryptocurrency committee.

On December 17, 2024, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), a non-profit organization focused on Bitcoin policy research (note, it is not an official organization, but it remains one of the important think tanks for decision-makers on Bitcoin-related issues), recently made public a draft of an executive order that attempts to provide reference opinions for the framework of Trump's 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' executive order. This draft clearly proposes: recommending that 1%-5% of national debt assets be used to purchase Bitcoin to form a long-term reserve. Led by the Treasury, in collaboration with the Federal Reserve, gradually establish reserves, etc.

On December 19, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (expected to continue serving after Trump's inauguration) expressed cautious views at a press conference, stating that the Federal Reserve has no intention of participating in any government accumulation of Bitcoin plans, as these issues fall within Congress's responsibilities. The Federal Reserve has not sought to change existing laws to allow for the holding of Bitcoin.

From the latest situation, although the Federal Reserve chairman holds conservative opinions, under favorable conditions such as the appointment of a crypto-friendly U.S. Treasury Secretary nominated by Trump and the rapid issuance of 'presidential executive orders,' these will not affect Trump's team's continued push to incorporate Bitcoin into the U.S. strategic reserve plan.

02 Earliest Implementation Time

Given that the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' is not a minor issue and cannot be executed immediately by the U.S. president alone, we will not see its implementation immediately. From the current administrative order or legislative process in the country, if Trump wants to implement the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, he should let the cryptocurrency committee conduct policy research and feasibility assessments immediately after taking office, and formally propose a plan afterwards, which can then take two paths:

Path One: Presidential Executive Order (Earliest in the Second Half of 2025)

Issuing an executive order directly after taking office is the quickest path for Trump, as it can bypass the conservative and opposing resistance from the Federal Reserve and Congress. It is also based on the draft provided by the 'Bitcoin Policy Institute,' instructing the U.S. Treasury to utilize the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to directly allocate Bitcoin.

However, while this method is fast and convenient, it also has side effects. Although the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund does not require congressional approval, it can be investigated and legislated by Congress. An executive order can also be overturned and modified by the next president, so its permanence and stability are not as good as that of legislation.

Path Two: Congressional Legislation (Earliest in the Second Half of 2026)

If a more stable legislative path is taken, it will require a longer process. After the policy research and feasibility assessment by the cryptocurrency committee, the bill needs to be submitted to Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee, and then go through the Senate, House of Representatives, and finally be signed by the president before the legislation can be officially completed.

This process may experience various back-and-forth and is relatively complex. After all, many conservative members of Congress will definitely oppose and obstruct it. Therefore, although this path can lead to a lasting and stable bill, it will take a long time, possibly not until the second half of 2026 to 2027 for it to materialize.

Recently, it has been reported that the crypto industry is urging Trump's team to issue an executive order on his first day in office next month to initiate the cryptocurrency policy reforms he promised, helping to promote the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies. If this is done through an executive order, we may see the implementation of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve as early as mid-2025.

03 Several Important Time Points

During the process of the relevant executive orders or bills regarding the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, the following time points may have a significant impact on the market:

1) January 20, 2025, around Trump's inauguration

Trump will officially take office on this day, and from this time, he can officially begin to 'issue orders.' This time point will mark the beginning of the new president's administration, and relevant policy trends may gradually emerge. The market will pay close attention to the inaugural address and the release of early executive orders. This inauguration is expected to be quite lively as Trump has invited many guests, and the financial market will also pay close attention.

2) By mid-2025, the policy research phase will be completed.

Based on the timeline, the policy research of the crypto committee is expected to be completed by mid-2025 and to propose a feasibility report and draft on Bitcoin reserves. Subsequently, Trump can sign the executive order, marking the official introduction of the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.'

3) From the second half of 2025 to early 2026, implementation rules and potential congressional tug-of-war.

Sign the relevant executive orders and related frameworks, and the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and other relevant departments will begin to formulate specific implementation rules, including Bitcoin procurement methods, reserve ratios, asset management rules, etc., and then officially implement them.

During this period, it is unlikely to be too smooth, as opposing members of Congress will join in the obstruction and back-and-forth.

Finally, if everything goes smoothly and the Bitcoin reserve strategy yields objective 'benefits,' it may further promote legislation in the future, which will have a profound impact on the landscape of the crypto market.

04 Summary

The path to the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' seems to be full of twists and turns; it is not something that can be realized overnight, and at the earliest it will take at least half a year. However, regardless of how it unfolds, Trump's 'U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' has brought good expectations while also 'setting an example' that encourages central banks, financial institutions, and listed companies to research and explore the feasibility of Bitcoin reserves. Although there may still be many uncertainties regarding policy details and the final implementation timeline, we still need to follow and pay attention to key time points to make responsive adjustments at any time.