The Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering key news of the week, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress, and other industry dynamics. This article is part of the news weekly, bringing you an overview of major events in the blockchain industry this week.
Headlines
▌Two former FTX executives have their sentences reduced
According to the Washington Post, the sentences of two former executives of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX appear to have been shortened. According to information from the Federal Bureau of Prisons website, Ryan Salame began serving a 7.5-year sentence in October and is now expected to be released in March 2031. Caroline Ellison's current expected release date is July 2026, a few months less than her original two-year sentence. FTX filed for bankruptcy in 2022 due to questions about its financial condition and its relationship with sister trading company Alameda Research, leading to a rapid withdrawal of customer funds, similar to a bank run. Authorities later accused FTX of misappropriating customer funds for personal use and to repay loans owed by Alameda Research and other projects. This scandal led to a stunning downfall for FTX, which was once the world's third-largest cryptocurrency exchange, and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). Salame was the former co-CEO of FTX's Bahamian subsidiary, admitting to operating an unlicensed remittance business, violating campaign finance laws. Ellison was the former CEO of Alameda and pleaded guilty in December 2022 to charges of telecommunications, securities, and commodities fraud as well as money laundering.
▌Musk: The Federal Reserve has a serious overstaffing problem
Musk wrote on social media platform X that the Federal Reserve, which is responsible for protecting the world's largest economy, has a 'serious overstaffing problem,' a statement triggered by a series of discussions following a post about the Fed's latest policy decision.
▌US media: Some major banks in the US plan to sue the Federal Reserve regarding annual stress tests
According to CNBC, a knowledgeable source revealed that several large banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve regarding the annual bank stress tests. The source noted that a lawsuit is expected to be filed this week, possibly as early as Tuesday morning local time. The Federal Reserve's stress tests are an annual routine that requires banks to hold sufficient buffer capital for bad loans and sets limits on stock buybacks and dividends. After the market close last Monday, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it plans to adjust the bank stress tests, but did not detail the specific adjustments to the annual stress test framework. However, these adjustments may not be enough to alleviate banks' concerns about heavy capital requirements. The Federal Reserve stated: 'These proposed adjustments are not intended to have a substantial impact on overall capital requirements.' Greg Baer, CEO of the Bank Policy Institute representing large banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Federal Reserve's statement, describing it as 'the first step towards transparency and accountability.' However, Baer also hinted at possible further action: 'We are carefully examining this statement and considering taking additional steps to ensure timely reforms that are both legally compliant and policy aligned.'
▌Data: Only 7 out of 25 listed mining companies will achieve positive returns by the end of 2024
As of December 24, Bitcoin has risen 113% in 2024. However, according to the Hashrate Index and Google Finance data, most listed mining companies are on a downward trend in stock prices by the end of 2024, with declines of up to 84%. Out of the 25 listed mining companies in the index, only 7 have achieved positive returns. As of the time of writing, Bitdeer (BTDR) is up 167%, Cipher (CIFR) is up 33%, Hut 8 (HUT) is up 91%, Iris Energy (IREN) is up 72%, Northern Data (NB2) is up 58%, Core Scientific (CORZQ) is up 327%, and TeraWulf (WULF) is up 169%. On the other hand, Argo Blockchain (ARB) has fallen 84%, followed by Sphere 3D (ANY) down 69% (just to name a few). Bitcoin miners' cumulative revenue has exceeded $71 billion. According to Blockchain.com data, miners earned $42 million on December 22, while the peak in April exceeded $100 million.
▌Analyst: Cryptocurrency venture capital could surpass $18 billion in 2025
According to PitchBook analyst Robert Le's prediction, venture capital funding in the cryptocurrency industry could exceed $18 billion in 2025, with several quarters seeing investments reaching $5 billion. The total for cryptocurrency venture capital in 2023 is approximately $9 billion, expected to reach $11 billion in 2024, with quarterly average investments around $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Despite a slowdown in investment activity this summer, there has been a rebound post-election, with generalist venture capital firms expected to refocus on the cryptocurrency sector next year. Le also noted that the investment theme of 'cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence (AI)' will continue to heat up, with cryptocurrency technology potentially providing innovative solutions to certain core issues during the AI expansion process, or becoming a new growth point.
Policy
▌The State Administration of Foreign Exchange released a report management approach to manage high-risk transactions related to illegal cross-border financial activities involving virtual currencies
On December 27, it was reported that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced the release of the 'Bank Foreign Exchange Risk Trading Report Management Measures (Trial)' which has been implemented from now on. The measures are a supporting document for the 'Bank Foreign Exchange Business Management Measures (Trial)', aimed at strengthening the foreign exchange risk management of banks, and early identification, early warning, and early disposal of high-risk transactions, such as suspicious trade, underground banks, and illegal cross-border financial activities involving virtual currencies. The main contents include: clarifying the responsibility for foreign exchange risk trading reports by banks, requiring the establishment of monitoring systems and reporting; specifying the scope of information reporting, including activities involving illegal cross-border capital flows; clarifying report content, such as basic situations and proposed measures; and strengthening internal management measures, including internal control systems and data confidentiality management.
▌Russian Finance Minister: Digital currencies used for international payments represent a future trend
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated on Wednesday that after legislative adjustments allowed the use of Bitcoin and other digital currencies to cope with Western sanctions, Russian businesses have begun using these currencies for international payments. This year, Russia allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and has taken steps to legalize cryptocurrency mining, including Bitcoin. Russia is one of the leading countries in global Bitcoin mining. Siluanov said, 'Such transactions are already taking place. We believe that such transactions should be further expanded and developed. I believe this will happen next year.' He also added that using digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend.
▌The US Treasury and IRS finalize tax reporting requirements for specific cryptocurrency brokers
According to market news, the US Treasury and IRS have finalized the tax reporting requirements for specific cryptocurrency brokers (RIN 1545-BR39, TD 10021). The progress of the Biden administration on this regulatory system has been delayed due to resistance from the cryptocurrency industry against tracking transactions.
▌The US cryptocurrency industry calls on Congress to block new regulations for DeFi brokers
The IRS released new regulations on December 27, defining some decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols as brokers and requiring them to fulfill customer identification (KYC) obligations, which has sparked strong opposition from the cryptocurrency industry. The regulation is expected to affect up to 875 DeFi brokers and 2.6 million taxpayers. Legal experts criticized the rule as potentially overstepping authority and infringing constitutional rights. Paradigm Vice President Alexander Grieve called for the new 'pro-cryptocurrency Congress' to pass a Congressional Review Act (CRA) to repeal this regulation. The Blockchain Association stated that the rule is 'the last attempt to push the US cryptocurrency industry overseas' and indicated that action will be taken against it. Previously, it was reported that the IRS required 'DeFi brokers' to collect user transaction information.
▌CryptoQuant founder: Trump's Bitcoin policy depends on the economic status of the US
CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju stated that President-elect Donald Trump's Bitcoin policy may depend on the global investment community's perception of the US economy and the strength of the dollar. Ju believes that when investors perceive a threat to US economic hegemony, the prices of value storage assets such as gold and BTC will soar. However, investors continue to express confidence in the US economy and view the dollar as a safe-haven currency. This advantageous position makes it unlikely for the Trump administration to adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve to protect the dollar's dominance, and it may lead the president-elect to backtrack on supporting Bitcoin policies.
Blockchain applications
▌The number of global participants in the World Network exceeds 20 million
According to an official post from World, as of December, the number of global participants in the World Network has exceeded 20 million, with approximately 9.5 million verified real users, covering all continents except Antarctica. The weekly new users are reaching 800,000, with verified users increasing by 355,000, and monthly active World App users exceeding 8 million, equivalent to a new user joining every 0.75 seconds. As AI technology rapidly evolves, 'Proof of Human' is becoming a key technology to address the online identity trust crisis. According to Stanford University's 2024 AI Index report, 52% of Americans are concerned about AI products, and 66% believe AI will have a significant impact on life within 3-5 years.
▌Lido releases Ethereum staking SDK, supporting cross-chain staking functionality integration
Lido announced the launch of its Ethereum staking SDK, which is a TypeScript tool library for building off-chain integrations. This SDK allows developers to seamlessly integrate Lido staking functionalities into off-chain applications, offering core features such as staking, reward tracking, withdrawals, and wrapping. The newly released SDK supports multi-chain features, allowing staking/unstaking operations on networks like OP Mainnet without cross-chain requirements. This tool includes pre-built methods and comprehensive documentation for developing DeFi protocols, dashboards, or new staking products.
▌Bio Protocol releases roadmap for 2025, plans to launch new BIO Launchpad, etc.
Decentralized science (DeSci) management and liquidity protocol Bio Protocol published its roadmap for 2025, which includes: BIO tokens will undergo TGE on the Ethereum mainnet on January 3; BIO tokens will be launched on Solana and Base networks; a new BioDAO will be launched; BIO/BioDAO liquidity pools; and the new BIO Launchpad will officially go live.
▌Forbes predicts seven major trends in the cryptocurrency industry for 2025
Forbes predicts seven major trends in the cryptocurrency industry for 2025: 1. G7 or BRICS countries will establish strategic Bitcoin reserves; 2. The market capitalization of stablecoins will double to $400 billion; 3. The Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem will achieve rapid growth leveraging L2 networks (such as Stacks, BOB, Babylon), with the locked value expected to exceed the current $24 billion of cross-chain wrapped Bitcoin; 4. Cryptocurrency ETF products will expand into Ethereum staking and Solana and other tracks; 5. Technology giants like Apple and Microsoft may follow Tesla to increase their Bitcoin holdings; 6. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market will exceed $8 trillion; 7. Improvements in the US regulatory environment will drive a revival of cryptocurrency startups.
▌Cryptocurrency mining company HIVE Digital invests $30 million to deploy NVIDIA chip clusters
Cryptocurrency mining company HIVE Digital Technologies (NASDAQ: HIVE) announced the deployment of a new batch of NVIDIA GPU clusters in Quebec. The total investment for the project is $30 million, which includes 248 H100 GPUs (32 nodes) and 508 H200 GPUs (64 nodes). The H100 cluster is expected to be operational by the end of 2024, with anticipated annualized revenue of $15 million for the HPC business next quarter; the H200 cluster is expected to arrive in January 2025 and is planned to be fully deployed by the second quarter of 2025, with expected annualized revenue exceeding $20 million. HIVE Executive Chairman Frank Holmes stated that the revenue potential of 10 MW of HPC NVIDIA chip services for AI demand is equivalent to the revenue from 100 MW of Bitcoin mining.
Cryptocurrency
▌Last week, Ethereum NFT trading volume surged to $186 million, reaching a three-month high
According to The Block data, last week the trading volume of Ethereum NFTs surged to $186 million, reaching a three-month high, an increase of 67% compared to the previous week's $111 million. The Pudgy Penguins series was a major catalyst for this surge following the issuance of its PENGU token, generating $108 million in trading volume, with individual Pudgy Penguins trading prices once exceeding 29 ETH, but quickly falling after the token issuance. Bitcoin is the second-largest NFT ecosystem, with a weekly trading volume of only $33 million.
▌Goldman Sachs CEO: Many regulated US banks cannot access cryptocurrencies, and it is still unclear how regulation will evolve
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, pointed out at a recent Reuters conference that many regulated US banks still cannot access cryptocurrencies. Solomon added, 'Everyone is speculating about how the regulatory framework will evolve, but it is still unclear how the regulatory framework will evolve.' Currently, there is still speculation about how long it will take for the first cryptocurrency bill to pass in the House and Senate, and before Trump.
▌Telegram founder: Total revenue exceeds $1 billion this year
Telegram founder Pavel Durov stated in his personal TG channel that the number of Telegram Premium subscribers has doubled this year, exceeding 12 million, and advertising revenue has also increased several times. Additionally, Telegram's total revenue for 2024 exceeded $1 billion, with cash reserves exceeding $500 million, excluding crypto assets. Over the past four years, Telegram has issued approximately $2 billion in debt.
▌Coinbase report: From the beginning of 2024 to now, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has increased by 48%
A report from Coinbase shows that from the beginning of 2024 to now, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has increased by 48%.
▌Two whales increased their holdings of 4.47 million ai16z
According to monitoring by Lookonchain, two whales are accumulating ai16z. AVLKwK...x1Mv spent 3.71 million USDC today to purchase 2.96 million ai16z at about $1.253. 65FwXv...T4HE spent 10,000 SOL ($1.88 million) today to buy 1.51 million ai16z at about $1.247.
Important economic dynamics
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%
According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%, with a 12.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March next year is 50.6%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 44.1% and a 50 basis point cut at 5.4%.
▌VanEck: Bitcoin reserve strategy could reduce US debt by 35%, offsetting about $42 trillion in liabilities
Asset management firm VanEck stated that if the US establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the national debt of the US could be reduced by 35% over the next 24 years. VanEck's estimates assume that Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% to $42.3 million by 2049, while US national debt will rise at a CAGR of 5% from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion during the same period. VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: 'By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion in liabilities.'
▌Wall Street: Predicts that the 2-year Treasury yield will decline by 50 basis points next year
Although the threat of trade and tax policies from elected President Trump looms over the bond market, Wall Street still receives cues from the Federal Reserve, predicting that the yield on US short-term government bonds will decline in 2025. Most strategists' predictions agree that the yield on the 2-year Treasury bonds, which are more sensitive to Federal Reserve interest rate policies, will decline. They anticipate that, 12 months from now, the yield will drop at least 50 basis points from current levels. The median forecast from 12 strategists is that the 2-year Treasury yield will decline by about 50 basis points to 3.75% in a year. For the longer-term 10-year Treasury, strategists believe that last Friday's yield of about 4.52% will reach 4.25% by the end of 2025, about 25 basis points lower than current levels.
▌The exchange rate of the won has dropped below 1480 won per dollar, marking the lowest since 2009
On December 27, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar in the Seoul foreign exchange market broke 1480 won per dollar. Previously, political turmoil in South Korea led to a continuous decline of the won. On December 19, in the Seoul foreign exchange market, the won opened at 1453.0 won per dollar, marking the lowest exchange rate since March 2009. (Jin Shi)
▌The dollar index has risen over 7% so far this year, marking its best performance since 2015
The US dollar is on track for its best annual performance in nearly a decade, as a strengthening US economy dampens expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, and elected President Donald Trump's threat of hefty tariffs supports bullish bets on the dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has risen more than 7% so far this year, marking its best performance since 2015. As other central banks have had to step in to support their domestic economies, all major currencies have weakened against the dollar.
