The Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress, and other industry dynamics from the week. This article is part of the news weekly, bringing you a glimpse of major events in the blockchain industry this week.
Headlines
▌Two former FTX executives received sentence reductions.
According to the Washington Post, the sentences of two former FTX executives appear to have been shortened. According to information from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Prisons, Ryan Salame began serving a 7.5-year sentence in October and is now expected to be released in March 2031. Caroline Ellison's current expected release date is July 2026, a few months shorter than her initial two-year sentence. FTX filed for bankruptcy in 2022 due to questions about its financial condition and its relationship with sister trading firm Alameda Research, leading to a rapid withdrawal of funds by customers, similar to a bank run. Authorities later charged FTX with misappropriating customer funds for personal use and repaying loans owed to Alameda Research and other projects. This scandal led FTX, once the world's third-largest cryptocurrency exchange, and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) to suffer a stunning downfall. Salame was the former co-CEO of FTX's Bahamas subsidiary and admitted to operating an unlicensed remittance business, violating campaign finance laws. Ellison was the former CEO of Alameda, and she pleaded guilty in December 2022 to charges of telecommunications, securities, and commodities fraud, as well as money laundering.
▌Musk: The Federal Reserve is severely overstaffed.
Musk wrote on social media platform X that the Federal Reserve, responsible for protecting the world's largest economy, is "severely overstaffed," a remark sparked by a series of discussions triggered by someone posting about the Federal Reserve's latest policy decisions.
▌U.S. media: Some major banks in the U.S. plan to sue the Federal Reserve regarding annual stress tests.
According to CNBC, informed sources revealed that several large banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve regarding the annual bank stress tests. The sources said that a lawsuit is expected to be filed this week, possibly as early as Tuesday morning local time. The Federal Reserve's stress tests are an annual routine that requires banks to hold sufficient buffer capital for bad loans and stipulates the scale of stock repurchases and dividends. After the market closed on Monday, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it plans to adjust the bank stress tests, but did not detail the specific adjustments to the annual stress test framework. However, these adjustments may not be enough to alleviate banks' concerns about heavy capital requirements, as the Federal Reserve stated, "These proposed adjustments are not meant to have a substantial impact on overall capital requirements." Greg Baer, CEO of the Bank Policy Institute (BPI), representing large banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Federal Reserve's statement, calling it "a first step toward transparency and accountability." However, Baer also hinted at the possibility of further action: "We are carefully reviewing this statement and considering further measures to ensure timely reforms that comply with both law and policy."
▌Data: Only 7 out of 25 listed mining companies achieved positive returns by the end of 2024.
As of December 24, Bitcoin has risen 113% in 2024. However, according to the hash rate index and Google Finance data, most listed mining companies are trending downwards in stock prices by as much as 84% by the end of 2024. Among the 25 listed mining companies in this index, only 7 achieved positive returns. As of the time of reporting, Bitdeer (BTDR) is up 167%, Cipher (CIFR) up 33%, Hut 8 (HUT) up 91%, Iris Energy (IREN) up 72%, Northern Data (NB2) up 58%, Core Scientific (CORZQ) up 327%, and TeraWulf (WULF) up 169%. On the other hand, Argo Blockchain (ARB) is down 84%, followed by Sphere 3D (ANY) down 69%. Bitcoin miners' cumulative revenue exceeded $71 billion. According to Blockchain.com, miners' revenue on December 22 was $42 million, while the peak in April exceeded $100 million.
▌Analysts: Crypto venture capital may exceed $18 billion in 2025.
According to PitchBook analyst Robert Le's forecast, venture capital funding in the crypto industry may exceed $18 billion in 2025, with multiple quarters seeing investments reach $5 billion. The total crypto venture capital for 2023 is approximately $9 billion, expected to reach $11 billion in 2024, with quarterly average investments around $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Although investment activity slowed this summer, there has been a rebound after the elections, and generalist venture capital firms are expected to refocus on the crypto space next year. Le also noted that the investment theme of "crypto and artificial intelligence (AI)" will continue to heat up, and crypto technology may provide innovative solutions to certain core issues during the AI expansion process, potentially becoming a new growth point.
Policy
▌The State Administration of Foreign Exchange released a report management method for high-risk transactions such as illegal cross-border financial activities related to virtual currency.
On December 27, it was reported that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that the (Management Measures for Reporting Bank Foreign Exchange Risk Transactions (Trial)) has been released and implemented as of now. (The measures) are supporting documents for the (Management Measures for Bank Foreign Exchange Operations (Trial)), aimed at strengthening banks' foreign exchange risk management and early identification, early warning, and early handling of high-risk transactions such as suspected false trade, underground banks, and illegal cross-border financial activities related to virtual currency. Major contents include: clarifying the reporting responsibilities for bank foreign exchange risk transactions, requiring the establishment of monitoring systems and submission of reports; specifying the scope of information reporting, including activities involving illegal cross-border capital flows; clarifying report contents such as basic situations and proposed measures; and strengthening internal management measures, including internal control systems and materials confidentiality management.
▌Russian Finance Minister: The use of digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated on Wednesday that Russian companies have begun using Bitcoin and other digital currencies for international payments after legislative adjustments allowed their use in response to Western sanctions. This year, Russia has allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and has taken measures to legalize cryptocurrency mining, including Bitcoin. Russia is one of the leading countries in global Bitcoin mining. Siluanov said, "Such transactions are already underway. We believe they should be further expanded and developed. I believe this will happen next year." He also added that the use of digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend.
▌The U.S. Treasury and the IRS have finalized tax reporting requirements for specific cryptocurrency brokers.
According to market news, the U.S. Treasury and the IRS have finalized tax reporting requirements for specific digital currency brokers (RIN 1545-BR39, TD 10021). Progress in the formulation of this regulatory system has been delayed due to resistance from the cryptocurrency industry against tracking transactions.
▌The U.S. crypto industry calls on Congress to stop new DeFi broker regulations.
The IRS announced new rules on December 27, defining certain decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols as brokers and requiring compliance with customer identification (KYC) obligations, which sparked strong opposition from the crypto industry. The regulation is expected to affect up to 875 DeFi brokers and 2.6 million taxpayers. Legal experts criticized the rule for exceeding authority and potentially infringing on constitutional rights. Alexander Grieve, vice president of Paradigm, called for the new "pro-crypto Congress" to pass a Congressional Review Act (CRA) to abolish the regulation. The Blockchain Association stated that the rule is "the last gasp of an attempt to push the U.S. crypto industry overseas" and indicated that it would take action against it. Previously, it was reported that the IRS required "DeFi brokers" to collect user transaction information.
▌CryptoQuant founder: Trump's Bitcoin policy depends on the economic status of the U.S.
CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju stated that President-elect Donald Trump's Bitcoin policy may depend on the global investment community's view of the U.S. economy and the strength of the dollar. Ju believes that when investors perceive a threat to U.S. economic hegemony, the prices of store-of-value assets like gold and BTC will soar. However, investors continue to express confidence in the U.S. economy and see the dollar as a safe-haven currency. This advantageous position makes it less likely that the Trump administration will adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve to protect the dollar's dominance, potentially leading the president-elect to reverse his support for Bitcoin policies.
Blockchain application
▌The number of global participants in the World network surpasses 20 million.
According to an official post from World, as of December, the number of global participants in the World Network has exceeded 20 million, of which about 9.5 million are verified real users, covering all continents except Antarctica. Weekly new users reach 800,000, verified users increase by 355,000, and the monthly active World App users exceed 8 million, which means a new user joins every 0.75 seconds. With the rapid development of AI technology, "Proof of Human" is becoming a key technology to address the online identity trust crisis. According to Stanford University's 2024 AI Index Report, 52% of Americans are concerned about AI products, and 66% believe AI will have a significant impact on life in the next 3-5 years.
▌Lido releases Ethereum staking SDK, supporting cross-chain staking functionality integration.
Lido announced the launch of an Ethereum staking SDK, a TypeScript library for building off-chain integrations. The SDK allows developers to seamlessly integrate Lido's staking features into off-chain applications, providing core functionalities such as staking, reward tracking, withdrawals, and wrapping. The newly released SDK features multi-chain support, allowing for staking/un-staking operations on networks like OP Mainnet without cross-chain requirements. The tool includes pre-built methods and comprehensive documentation for developing DeFi protocols, dashboards, or new staking products.
▌Bio Protocol announces its roadmap for 2025, launching a new BIO Launchpad, among others.
The decentralized science (DeSci) management and liquidity protocol Bio Protocol announced its roadmap for 2025, which includes: the BIO token will undergo TGE on the Ethereum mainnet on January 3; the BIO token will be launched on the Solana and Base networks; a new BioDAO will be launched; a BIO/BioDAO liquidity pool; and a new BIO Launchpad will officially go live.
▌Forbes article predicts seven trends in the crypto industry for 2025.
Forbes article predicts seven trends in the crypto industry for 2025: 1. G7 or BRICS countries may establish strategic Bitcoin reserves; 2. The market value of stablecoins is expected to double to $400 billion; 3. The Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem will achieve rapid growth through L2 networks (such as Stacks, BOB, Babylon), with the locked amount expected to exceed the current $24 billion of cross-chain wrapped Bitcoin; 4. Crypto ETF products will expand to include Ethereum staking and Solana tracks; 5. Tech giants like Apple and Microsoft may follow Tesla's example and increase their Bitcoin holdings; 6. The total market value of the crypto market will surpass $8 trillion; 7. Improvements in the U.S. regulatory environment will drive a revival in crypto entrepreneurship.
▌Crypto mining company HIVE Digital invests $30 million to deploy NVIDIA chip clusters.
Crypto mining company HIVE Digital Technologies (NASDAQ: HIVE) announced the deployment of a new batch of NVIDIA GPU clusters in Quebec. The total investment for the project is $30 million, which includes 248 H100 GPUs (32 nodes) and 508 H200 GPUs (64 nodes). The H100 cluster is expected to be operational by the end of 2024, with projected annual revenue from HPC business reaching $15 million; the H200 cluster is scheduled to arrive in January 2025, with plans to complete deployment by the second quarter of 2025 and expected annual revenue exceeding $20 million. HIVE Executive Chairman Frank Holmes stated that the revenue potential of the 10 MW HPC NVIDIA chip service for AI demand is equivalent to the income from 100 MW of Bitcoin mining.
Cryptocurrency
▌Last week, Ethereum NFT trading volume surged to $186 million, the highest in three months.
According to The Block, last week Ethereum NFT trading volume surged to $186 million, the highest in three months, up 67% from the previous week's $111 million. The Pudgy Penguins series was the main catalyst for this surge after issuing the PENGU token, generating $108 million in trading volume, with the price of a single Pudgy Penguins reaching over 29 ETH at one point but quickly declining after the token issuance. Bitcoin is the second-largest NFT ecosystem, with a weekly trading volume of only $33 million.
▌Goldman Sachs CEO: Many regulated U.S. banks cannot access cryptocurrencies, and it remains unclear how regulation will evolve.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon pointed out at a recent Reuters conference that many regulated U.S. banks still cannot access cryptocurrencies. Solomon added, "Everyone is speculating on how the regulatory framework will evolve, but it is still unclear how the regulatory framework will evolve." Currently, there is still speculation about how long it will take for the first cryptocurrency bill to pass through the House and Senate, as well as in front of Trump.
▌Telegram founder: Total revenue this year exceeds $1 billion.
Telegram founder Pavel Durov stated in his personal TG channel that the number of Telegram Premium subscribers has doubled this year, exceeding 12 million, and advertising revenue has also increased several times. In addition, Telegram's total revenue in 2024 exceeds $1 billion, with cash reserves at the end of the year exceeding $500 million, excluding crypto assets. Over the past four years, Telegram has issued approximately $2 billion in debt.
▌Coinbase report: The total market value of stablecoins has grown by 48% since the beginning of 2024.
A report from Coinbase indicates that the total market value of stablecoins has grown by 48% since the beginning of 2024.
▌2 whales have accumulated 4.47 million ai16z.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, 2 whales are accumulating ai16z. AVLKwK...x1Mv spent 3.71 million USDC today to purchase 2.96 million ai16z at approximately $1.253 per token. 65FwXv...T4HE spent 10,000 SOL ($1.88 million) today to purchase 1.51 million ai16z at approximately $1.247 per token.
Important economic dynamics
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 87.2%.
According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 87.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 12.8%. By March next year, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 50.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 44.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 5.4%.
▌VanEck: The Bitcoin reserve strategy could reduce U.S. debt by 35%, offsetting about $42 trillion in liabilities.
Asset management company VanEck stated that if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the national debt of the U.S. could be reduced by 35% over the next 24 years. VanEck's estimate assumes that Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% to $42.3 million by 2049, while the U.S. national debt will climb from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion by the same period at a CAGR of 5%. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: 'By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion in liabilities.'
▌Wall Street: Predicts the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will fall by 50 basis points next year.
Despite the imminent threat of President-elect Trump's trade and tax policies to the bond market, Wall Street still takes cues from the Federal Reserve, predicting that short-term U.S. Treasury yields will fall in 2025. Strategists' predictions are largely consistent, believing that the 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Federal Reserve interest rate policy, will decline. They expect that 12 months from now, the yield will drop at least 50 basis points from current levels. The median forecast among 12 strategists is that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will decrease by about 50 basis points to 3.75% in a year. For longer-term 10-year Treasuries, strategists believe that last Friday's yield of about 4.52% will reach 4.25% by the end of 2025, which is about 25 basis points lower than current levels.
▌The exchange rate of the Korean won against the dollar has fallen below 1480 won per dollar, the lowest since 2009.
On December 27, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the dollar surpassed 1480 won per dollar in the Seoul foreign exchange market. Previously, political turmoil in South Korea caused the won to continue to decline. On December 19, in the Seoul foreign exchange market, the won opened at 1453.0 won per dollar, marking the lowest exchange rate of the won against the dollar since March 2009. (Golden Ten)
▌The U.S. dollar index has risen more than 7% so far this year, marking its best performance since 2015.
The dollar is on track for its best annual performance in nearly a decade, as a strengthening U.S. economy dampens expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, and President-elect Donald Trump's threat of imposing strict tariffs supports bullish bets on the dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has risen over 7% so far this year, marking its best performance since 2015. As other central banks have to step in to support their economies, all developed country currencies have weakened against the dollar.
