Welcome to follow (Jiu Jiu's Bitcoin Daily), an eight-year veteran, columnist for Babit, and content writer for Binance! Teaching you how to observe crypto logically.
Today, the topics we are going to discuss include:
Latest developments in Bitcoin's market
Why is Ethereum so weak, and when will it welcome a rebound?
Okay, enough small talk, let's get straight into today's analysis.
Bitcoin Market Analysis: Why do we need to wait for a breakout from the consolidation range?
In the past few days, I have been reminding everyone that Bitcoin's market may enter an adjustment phase. As early as three days ago, I judged through my trading system that Bitcoin is currently under downward pressure, suppressed by a downward crossover signal in the system. Therefore, I did not rush to bottom fish, but chose to clear some profits and wait for the breakout of the market consolidation range.
So, why do we need to wait for a breakout from the consolidation range? This is actually a key market rule. Many friends may not be very familiar with candlestick charts, or even if they understand some, they may not fully grasp the essence of the trends behind the candlesticks. Simply put, the market's movement is essentially composed of fluctuations and consolidations.
When the market fluctuates up and down within a range, we usually call it a consolidation range. Such consolidation ranges are quite common. For example, from March to August 2024, the market was in a consolidation state until October 2024, when it broke through this range, and the price rose directly from 60,000 to 100,000.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is in the range of 90,000 to 100,000, which is also in a state of consolidation. Due to year-end holiday factors, the market may experience a short-term stagnation, but once the consolidation range is broken, whether it rises or falls, a directional fluctuation will follow.
I have already conducted data analysis on this, and I will release a special video later to discuss in detail how to grasp the Spring Festival market and opportunities after the Spring Festival.
Ethereum's performance is weak: When will it welcome a market rebound?
Next, let's talk about Ethereum. On August 27 this year, a fan asked me in the advanced group: 'When will Ethereum welcome a market surge?' My answer at that time was: under normal circumstances, Ethereum's market will explode in 2025.
Why do I say that? We can take a look at the exchange rate chart between Ethereum and Bitcoin. This chart visually reflects the strength relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin. Usually, I use this chart to judge the signals for Ethereum's rise.
From the chart, it can be seen that Ethereum has been in a downward channel, however, since September, it not only broke through the downward channel but also accelerated downward, indicating that the sentiment of Ethereum investors may have become more pessimistic, starting to sell off. As Buffett said, 'I am fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.' In this panic range, it is actually a time when the potential opportunities for Ethereum increase.
Let's revisit 2021, the upward trend of Ethereum. In January 2021, a clear upward slope appeared, which was a signal of initiation. If history repeats itself, then in the first quarter of next year, Ethereum may welcome a good performance.
So, why did Ethereum perform weakly when the overall market was doing well before? I believe there are several reasons:
Major upgrade in March 2024: Although the upgrade of Ethereum is highly anticipated, the performance after the upgrade did not meet expectations, leading to a decline in market confidence.
Impact of ETF: Although Ethereum has also received guidance from ETFs, unlike Bitcoin, the continuous selling pressure from Grayscale has resulted in a lack of rebound momentum in the market.
Shift in market focus: This year's hot topics have been concentrated on meme coins, with the main battleground for meme coins being Solana. Although there are some meme coins on Ethereum, they have not attracted as much attention as those on Solana, resulting in relatively lower attention for Ethereum.
However, despite these factors temporarily affecting Ethereum's performance, I still have high hopes for its future. As I mentioned earlier, Ethereum still has great potential. If I establish a position at the right time, rest assured, I will share it with everyone through video at the first opportunity.
Summary and Outlook: Patiently wait and seize market opportunities
Overall, both Bitcoin and Ethereum's trends are in a critical adjustment period. Bitcoin is waiting for a breakout from the consolidation range, while Ethereum, although performing weakly in the short term, still has great potential. Investors need to be patient and seize the right opportunities.
Whether it's Bitcoin or Ethereum, we cannot give up the long-term investment value because of short-term fluctuations. The market will welcome a directional breakout after the consolidation, and this is the right time for us to position ourselves.
That's all for today's analysis, hope it helps everyone. If you find the content valuable, don't forget to like and share, see you next time!