Yesterday, BTC briefly surged in the afternoon before continuing to fall. With the opening of the U.S. stock market, BTC followed closely behind and eventually broke below 94,000, hitting a low near 93,400, triggering the stop-loss level for the long position suggested yesterday at 94,000. It was indeed unexpected, but one must admit when wrong. However, as of now, the reasons for me to turn bearish are still insufficient. First, the market remains within the large range of oscillation previously judged, between 94,000 and 107,000, and has not truly broken below. Second, last night the Nasdaq 100 had a peak intraday decline of over 2%, but the lowest point just barely touched the lower edge of the support area, recovering half of the decline by the end of the session, returning to the upper edge of the range support. Without breaking the lower edge of support on the daily level, I still hold a bullish outlook on the Nasdaq, and the trading suggestion remains to buy on dips, expecting the Nasdaq to break new highs. Perhaps I will be proven wrong later, but until the conditions for a bearish outlook are met, I still favor a bullish stance on the Nasdaq.
If one wants to turn to a bearish view on BTC in the long term, there must either be negative news leading to BTC breaking below recent lows, and this should be a daily level break that disrupts the large range oscillation trend, or the Nasdaq must break below support and turn to a bearish trend. Of course, this does not mean that I am bullish on the long-term trend of BTC. For the past week or two, I have emphasized the oscillation within a range; it's just that the market has reached the lower part of the range, and coupled with my bullish view on the Nasdaq, I suggest buying BTC near the lower edge of the range rather than chasing a bearish position.
In terms of my own trading yesterday, I set my stop-loss point relatively low, near recent lows, and it did not hit the stop-loss level. Because the long positions I took on dips in recent days are not all traded as short-term trades, at least half of the long positions are held for a slightly longer term, targeting a return to the upper edge of the range, which is above 100,000. In terms of operations, I reduced positions when there was a rebound yesterday at a higher buying cost, and bought back at lower positions when it fell. If there are opportunities, I would alternate operations to try to lower the holding cost. This kind of operation can be referenced by everyone.
There are no specific trading suggestions today. The Nasdaq did not have a clear direction on Friday, and unless there is particularly stimulating news, it is expected that BTC will maintain a low-level oscillation over the weekend. Short-term trading is not easy, but there is not much room, so I don’t feel like getting involved. If you agree with my assessment that the market will rebound upwards after oscillating at low levels, you can look for low-level buying opportunities over the weekend and hold, placing the stop-loss slightly below the recent lows.
