There are only a few days left before 2024 is over (Gregorian calendar). Today, I will briefly analyze the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin, sharing my humble opinions.

First, let's talk about the U.S. stock market. Theoretically, where there is a bull market, there must be a bear market. But looking at the U.S. stock market, does it really have bear markets? Even if there are pullbacks, they are quickly brought back and break through new highs again! Even during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when the U.S. stock market experienced multiple circuit breakers, President Trump unleashed unlimited liquidity to rescue the market, and the U.S. stock market continued to soar. This shows that the U.S. allows for pullbacks in the stock market but will not allow it to crash without limits.

Now, let's talk about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a market with clear boundaries between bulls and bears, averaging a small cycle every two years and a major bull and bear market every four years. It is not difficult to see that starting from the lowest price at the end of 2022, this round of bull market has lasted for over 750 days, a little over two years. According to the time cycle, has this major bull market already entered the tail end?

Next, let's analyze the structural changes of Bitcoin holders. Previously, Bitcoin holders included retail investors, large holders, miners, trading platforms, and a few capital institutions. However, with the approval of multiple Bitcoin ETFs, more and more people are paying attention to Bitcoin, and the entry of established financial institutions has made Bitcoin increasingly strong and stable. In the past, an announcement from a trading platform could lead to miners and large holders selling off, causing panic among retail investors and resulting in a crash of Bitcoin. National-level policy suppression could even deliver a nuclear-level blow to Bitcoin. Now, the influence of large holders and miners on Bitcoin prices is minimal; policies and platform rules can only affect short-term trends. This indicates that Bitcoin is no longer just the Bitcoin of ordinary people; after several rounds of bull and bear market reshuffling, most of the Bitcoin has entered the pockets of super large holders and large institutions.

So, can Bitcoin, like the U.S. stock market, experience such a long bull market? I believe it certainly can in the future. A short-term decline followed by a long slow bull market will become the main theme for Bitcoin. However, when this future will arrive is not something I can know; it could be now, or it could be in the next four years or the next bull and bear cycle.