Autor: Laboratório Frontier
Visão geral do mercado
Visão geral do mercado: O mercado criptográfico apresentou uma tendência de queda esta semana sob a influência do feriado de Natal. Embora o índice de sentimento do mercado tenha subido ligeiramente de 7% para 10%, ainda está na faixa do pânico extremo, é importante notar que, embora; o mercado geral é fraco, com os Estados Unidos O USDC orientado para o mercado ainda alcançou um crescimento de 1,91%, indicando que os fundos institucionais ainda continuam a entrar no mercado, injetando um certo grau de confiança no mercado.
Desenvolvimento ecológico DeFi: TVL do setor DeFi caiu ligeiramente 0,37% para US$ 52,7 bilhões esta semana, mas projetos de renda de stablecoin, como pools de metralhadoras, tiveram um bom desempenho, e a oferta geral de stablecoins manteve uma tendência de crescimento, indicando que, apesar das correções do mercado , No entanto, a liquidez básica continua a fluir e projetos de renda estável, como pools de metralhadoras, são procurados.
AI Agent Development: The AI Agent track continues to receive high market attention, with a total scale reaching $10.9 billion, especially the aipool model combining TEE technology has become the new market focus, expected to become a new asset issuance method following "inscription," showing a trend of deep integration between AI and blockchain technology.
Meme Coin Trends: Affected by the holiday and the overall market downturn, the Meme coin track performed poorly this week, with a noticeable decrease in investor participation and capital inflows. Market heat temporarily shifted to other tracks, showing the high volatility characteristics of this track.
Public Chain Performance Analysis: The public chain sector has shown strong resilience against declines, with Stacks completing important milestones for sBTC, BOB advancing BitVM Bridge development, and Taiko launching a new round of ecological plans, indicating that major public chains continue to focus on technological innovation and ecological construction.
Future Market Outlook: Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue its lackluster performance during the New Year's holiday. It is recommended that investors maintain defensive allocations and increase allocations to major assets, while moderately participating in high-yield money gun pool projects. In the long term, the market generally expects a potential upward trend in the first quarter of 2025, and AI Agent and DeFi money gun pool projects are worth paying close attention to.
Market Sentiment Index Analysis
The market sentiment index rose from 7% last week to 10%, still in a state of extreme panic.
Altcoins performed weaker than the benchmark index this week, showing a significant downward trend. Due to the Christmas holiday, liquidity sharply declined, increasing price volatility in the market, making sudden price spikes and drops more likely. This led to a lack of bullish market sentiment. Given the current market structure, it is expected that altcoins will remain in sync with the benchmark index in the short term, with low chances of independent trends.
When altcoins are in a state of extreme panic, the market is often at a phase bottom, ready for an upward reversal at any time.
Overview of overall market trends.
The cryptocurrency market was in a downward trend this week, with the sentiment index remaining in a state of extreme panic.
Crypto projects related to DeFi performed prominently, showing that the market continues to focus on enhancing base yields.
The AI Agent track projects had high public opinion this week, indicating that investors are beginning to actively seek the next market breakout point.
Hot Tracks
AI Agent
This week, the overall market was in a downward trend, and all tracks were in decline. Although most tokens in the AI Agent track also experienced price declines this week, they were the most discussed in the market. The most talked-about topic this week was the development of the aipool model, which combines AI Agent + TEE, and its future impact on DeFi.
One of the boosters for the periodic large rises in the crypto market is the emergence of new asset issuance methods. For instance, past methods such as ICO (Initial Coin Offering), IEO (Initial Exchange Offering), INO (Initial NFT Offering), IDO (Initial DEX Offering), and inscriptions have rapidly driven market development and contributed to the increase in crypto market prices. In the context of the rapid integration of AI and crypto, the current aipool has become a highly popular asset issuance method, also a continuation of the "money printing FI" in early 2024. If the aipool asset issuance method is widely accepted by the market, it will soon usher in a small wave of asset issuance fever driven by the aipool model, so we should pay close attention to aipool-type projects.
Top five AI Agent projects by market capitalization:
DeFi Track
TVL Growth Rankings
The top 5 projects in terms of TVL growth in the past week (excluding projects with smaller TVLs, with a standard of over $30 million), data source: Defilama.
Resolv (Unissued Token): (Recommended Index: ⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Project Introduction: Resolv is a delta-neutral stablecoin project that revolves around the tokenization of market-neutral investment portfolios. This architecture is based on economically viable and independent sources of yield from fiat currencies. It allows competitive returns to be allocated to the protocol's liquidity providers.
Latest Development: This week, Resolv completed significant technical upgrades, successfully transforming into an omnichain project by integrating LayerZero and Stargate technologies. The OFT standard it adopted passed security audits from multiple institutions, and Resolv performed outstandingly in ecological development this week, attracting a second $100 million inflow with an ecological growth rate of 84%. Its USDC Vault in Euler Finance offered up to 36.36% APY, attracting $5.67 million in TVL this week, and Resolv also launched the wstUSR pool on Pendle.fi and introduced a unified points structure.
USDX Money (Unissued Token): (Recommended Index: ⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Project Introduction: The USDX Money project is an emerging synthetic dollar stablecoin protocol aimed at providing a new type of crypto-native stablecoin solution through multi-chain and multi-currency strategies. The core goal of this project is to build next-generation stablecoin infrastructure and maintain the stability of the USDX to the dollar through delta-neutral hedging strategies.
Latest Development: USDX Money completed a brand new UI/UX upgrade this week to optimize user interaction experience, while launching USDX/USDT and sUSDX/USDX liquidity pools on Curve Finance, continuously expanding its ecosystem scale, with sUSDX reaching $170 million TVL through collaboration with Lista DAO. USDX Money also launched the X-Points incentive program, which includes content creation and angel plans, and held a special Christmas event.
Usual (USUAL): (Recommended Index: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Project Introduction: Usual is a stablecoin project supported by Binance, aiming to provide a new stablecoin solution through a decentralized approach. The core mechanism of this project includes three main tokens: stablecoin USD0, bond product USD0++, and governance token USUAL.
Latest Development: Recently, Usual secured $10 million in Series A funding led by Binance Labs and Kraken Ventures, and launched a new product UsualM in collaboration with the M^0 Foundation. It has become the largest USD0/USD0++ pool on Curve Finance, with Usual's TVL surpassing $1.5 billion, placing it among the top five stablecoins globally. The DAO treasury also doubled to $17 million, and the Usual project launched staking yields of up to 18,000% APY for USUALx, while initiating a community airdrop.
Hashnote (Unissued Token): (Recommended Index: ⭐️⭐️)
Project Introduction: The Hashnote project is a solution focused on institutional cryptocurrency management, aiming to provide transparency and optimize asset management through blockchain technology. Hashnote combines digital assets and traditional finance to offer users innovative yield enhancement solutions like USYC.
Latest Development: Hashnote reached a strategic cooperation with CoreDAO this week and participated in its ecological group panel meeting, focusing on launching an innovative Bitcoin dual-staking model that combines BTC and Core Token to provide users with sustainable yield solutions. Meanwhile, the project's CEO shared new strategies at the meeting, which garnered over 14,000 views, indicating strong market interest in this innovative model.
Spectra (SPECTRA): (Recommended Index: ⭐️⭐️)
Project Introduction: Spectra is a protocol for future yield tokenization. DeFi users can deposit interest-bearing tokens from other protocols within specified future periods and trade the future yields generated by that asset in advance. Spectra works by placing interest-bearing tokens (IBT) or any yield-bearing assets with a fixed term in a smart contract and issuing future yield tokens (FYT) as a return.
Latest Development: This week, Spectra successfully launched a new governance contract on the Base mainnet and introduced Gauges and incentivized pages in the Spectra App, while optimizing the multi-locking feature for veSPECTRA holders to participate more efficiently in the Gauge voting mechanism. Spectra also completed APW emission adjustments, with the new emission mechanism executed at a ratio of 1:20.
In summary, we can see that the projects with rapid TVL growth this week are mainly concentrated in the stablecoin yield sector (money gun pools).
Overall performance of the track.
Stablecoin market value steadily grows: USDT decreased from $145.1 billion last week to $144.7 billion, a decline of 0.27%. USDC increased from $42.1 billion to $42.9 billion, an increase of 1.91%. It can be seen that although the market was in a downward trend this week, USDC, primarily driven by the U.S. market, still showed growth, indicating that the purchasing power of the market remains persistently entering.
Liquidity gradually increases: The risk-free arbitrage rates in traditional markets have been continuously declining with ongoing interest rate cuts, while the arbitrage rates of on-chain DeFi projects have been increasing due to the rising value of cryptocurrency assets. Returning to DeFi will be a very good choice.
TVL of various DeFi tracks.
(Data source: https://defillama.com/categories)
Capital Situation: The TVL of DeFi projects rose from $52.9 billion last week to $52.7 billion now. Although there was a negative growth for two consecutive weeks, the decline was small at 0.37%. The main reason is that the Western market, led by the U.S., was in the Christmas holiday, leading to declines in both trading volumes of various tokens and on-chain activities. Additionally, the upcoming New Year's holiday is expected to show similar conditions. Therefore, attention should be focused on the overall TVL changes in January and whether the decline trend continues.
Deep Dive
Driving Forces for the Rise:
The core driving factors of this round of increase can be summarized as follows: Due to the recent downward trend in the market, the APYs of various DeFi protocols have decreased, while stablecoin yield projects have raised their yields through token/points rewards, making the APYs of money gun pool projects significantly advantageous in the overall market. Specifically:
Market Environment: Although in a bull market cycle, the market has recently been in a downward trend, leading to a significant decline in the market's base interest rates.
Interest Rate Side: Base borrowing rates are rising, reflecting market pricing expectations for funds.
Yield Side: The yield rates of stablecoin yield projects have expanded compared to other projects, attracting more users to participate in this transmission mechanism, reinforcing the value support of stablecoin yield projects and forming a virtuous growth momentum.
Potential Risks: Due to the recent upward trend in the market, investors are focusing more on yields and borrowing leverage while neglecting the downside risks. Furthermore, this week, due to the Christmas holiday, market liquidity sharply decreased, leading to selling pressure without sufficient liquidity to absorb it, resulting in continuous price declines and causing many long contracts in the market to get liquidated, resulting in losses for investors. The risk of chain liquidations caused by these liquidations has greatly increased, further lowering prices and liquidating more assets.
Performance of Other Tracks
Public Chain
The top 5 public chains in terms of TVL growth in the past week (excluding public chains with smaller TVLs), data source: Defilama.
Stacks: This week, 922 BTC were transferred to the Stacks network, completing the first phase deposit limit of 1,000 BTC for sBTC. In DeFi applications, 35% of sBTC have generated yields on Zest Protocol. The ALEX community voted to allocate 12 million ALEX tokens for the Surge plan. Stacks also achieved L1/L2 asset exchange capabilities through Bitflow Finance and AI consoles. Additionally, Stacks incentivized developers through the "Stackies" community reward program.
BOB: This week, BOB collaborated with Fiamma Labs to develop and release a BitVM Bridge prototype based on zero-knowledge technology, planned to launch a testnet in early 2025, and successfully deployed Lombard Finance on the BOB chain through collaboration. Preliminary governance discussions were held with Aave, planning to introduce its protocol to the BOB network. Additionally, BOB launched a 6-week DeFi incentive campaign, incentivizing LST holders to participate through Babylon Points, and conducted several community education tasks and Spaces events.
Taiko: This week, Taiko launched the Trailblazers Season 3 plan, establishing a reward pool of 6 million TAIKO tokens and launched the Liquidity Royale event to provide rewards of 12,000 TAIKO tokens to the first 100 liquidity providers. The number of projects in the Taiko ecosystem has grown to 130, with Symmetric added as an important DEX partner. Additionally, Taiko hosted its first community meet-up in Turkey with ITU Blockchain and Node 101, and strengthened community building through holiday giveaways and meme competitions.
Cardano: This week, Cardano highlighted the technical advantages of the slashing mechanism to ensure the security of user ADA assets, launched convenient web application development tools, deepened cooperation with hardware wallet service provider Ledger, and promoted the decentralization process of community governance through DReps (representatives) voting decision-making model.
Sei: This week, Sei announced a major technological breakthrough named "Giga," successfully extending EVM to a processing capability of 5 gigagas per second, increasing performance by 50 times. Additionally, it released the Giga Roadmap through Developer Office Hours, providing a clear roadmap for future technological development, and launched EVM Wrapped features to allow users to view their activity records across multiple EVM chains, enhancing cross-chain interoperability. Meanwhile, Sei conducted a "12 Days of Christmas" holiday event and collaborated with PythNetwork, Silo, and Nansen.
Overview of the Growth Rankings
The top five tokens in terms of growth in the past week (excluding tokens and meme coins with very small trading volumes), data source: Coinmarketcap.
ZEN: This week, Horizen successfully deployed the Horizen 2.0 Devnet testnet, launched an optimized zero-knowledge verification (ZK) solution to reduce technical complexity and costs, established a strategic cooperation with Automata Network to advance Web3 development, and gained recognition from institutional investors through Grayscale's Horizen Trust. This week, Horizen completed the final halving of ZEN and launched it on Bitvavo exchange. Horizen is also actively preparing for the token distribution plan for the zkVerify project.
MOCA: This week, Moca Network successfully integrated with SK Planet's OK Cashbag application, bringing significant user growth, including 1.5 million page views and 800,000 spin-the-wheel interactions. Moca Network has remained active in community operations, enhancing user engagement through Christmas marketing activities (#MocaFam) and placing special emphasis on user safety education, issuing multiple fraud prevention reminders.
PHA: This week, Phala Network officially launched Phala 2.0, integrating GPU TEE technology and Ethereum Layer 2 scaling features. It also collaborated with NVIDIA to jointly test achieving nearly 99% efficiency with TEE on H100/H200. Additionally, it announced the decision to migrate the Khala chain to the Ethereum mainnet. Phala Network's TEE-as-a-Service has been adopted by multiple projects, including Flashbots. Year-round data shows a significant increase in AI Agent contract execution volume to 4,500, with active TEE Workers reaching 37,650, demonstrating Phala Network's leading position in the decentralized AI infrastructure field.
AGLD: This week, Adventure Gold engaged with the community through a Christmas-themed marketing campaign, where a Christmas greeting tweet received high community participation (27 likes, 14 retweets). Adventure Gold also collaborated with BladeGamesHQ in the AI Agent-driven on-chain economy, showcasing the project's exploration in the integration of gaming ecology and AI technology.
MOVE: This week, Movement launched multiple innovative products based on its technology stack, including Puffpaw Vape with multi-chain support (which tracks usage data and rewards), Vomeus smart vape with a high-definition screen, and the Sentimint project that allows users to tag emotions and memories on items. At the same time, Movement improved performance through Block-STM parallelization optimization and Rollup architecture and expanded its on-chain DeFi scenarios through cross-chain integration with WBTC.
Meme Token Growth Rankings
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
This week, Meme projects were significantly affected by the overall market downturn. With the Christmas holiday in progress, fewer users participated in market trading, leading to capital withdrawals from the market. Therefore, the number of investors participating in Meme coin projects this week noticeably decreased, causing the current market's attention and capital not to focus on the Meme coin track.
Social Media Hot Spots
According to statistics from LunarCrush's top five daily growth and the top five AI scores in Scopechat, the data for this week (12.21-12.27) is as follows:
The most frequently mentioned theme is L1s, and the listed tokens are as follows (excluding tokens and meme coins with very small trading volumes):
Data sources: Lunarcrush and Scopechat.
According to data analysis, the most followed project on social media this week was the L1s project. Due to the Christmas holiday, the market, primarily led by the U.S., entered a holiday phase, causing market liquidity to sharply decline, and most ordinary investors reduced on-chain investment activities accompanied by selling actions, leading to a significant market downturn. The declines in various public chains were relatively smaller. During a general market decline, public chains often perform better than other tracks. Aside from buying BTC and ETH as a hedge, most investments still went into various public chains. When the downturn ends and an upturn begins, public chains generally rise before other projects.
Overall market theme overview.
Data source: SoSoValue.
According to weekly return rate statistics, the SocialFi track performed the best, while the RWA track performed the worst.
SocialFi Track: The absolute leader in the SocialFi track remains TON, which accounts for 91.07% of the market value of the SocialFi track. This week, TON did not follow the overall market decline and instead rose by 6.3%, making the SocialFi track perform the best. This week, Toncoin collaborated with GMX to promote high-frequency DeFi trading development.
RWA Track: In the RWA track, OM, ONDO, and MKR have large market shares, accounting for 44.28%, 23.85%, and 18.36%, totaling 86.49%. This week, OM, ONDO, and MKR dropped by 10.76%, 19.86%, and 8.28%, respectively, with the declines being larger compared to other track projects, resulting in the RWA track performing the worst this week.
Preview of Major Crypto Events Next Week
On Monday (December 30), the European Securities and Markets Authority released MiCA crypto regulations implementation.
On Thursday (January 2), the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week.
On Friday (January 3), the court approved the Chapter 11 reorganization plan of FTX to take effect.
Outlook for Next Week
Macro Factors Assessment: Next week enters the New Year's holiday, and there are few macro data releases. In previous years, entering the New Year's holiday, the market mainly driven by U.S. purchases generally continued the low purchasing power seen during the Christmas holiday, leading to increased market volatility.
Sector Rotation Trends: Although the current market environment for the DeFi track is poor, investors generally expect a widespread increase in the market in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, most investors are still unwilling to sell their tokens. Meanwhile, to increase holding yields, they have participated in money gun pool projects to enhance returns. The AI segment, particularly the AI Agent track, continues to receive sustained market attention, with a market size reaching $10.9 billion. The asset issuance model based on AI Agent + TEE has received widespread market attention.
Investment Strategy Recommendations: Maintain defensive allocations, increase allocations to major assets like BTC and ETH to enhance the hedging properties of assets while participating in some high-yield money gun pool DeFi projects. Investors are advised to remain cautious, tightly control positions, and manage risks effectively.
