Autor original: Mu Mu, blockchain vernáculo
Reimpressão: Luke, Mars Finance
Como a vitória de Trump foi “uma conclusão precipitada” no início de novembro, o mercado de criptografia, especialmente o Bitcoin, entrou em fortes expectativas para a “Reserva Estratégica de Bitcoin dos EUA”. Obviamente, o mercado estará altamente focado na implementação desta promessa depois que Trump assumir o cargo em 2025. Alguns analistas dizem sem rodeios que este incidente quebrará o ciclo de alta do Bitcoin. o mercado flutuasse. O que podemos fazer agora é prestar atenção ao seu progresso, estimar antecipadamente o possível tempo de pouso do nó e fazer os preparativos correspondentes.
01 Latest Progress
The matter of 'the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' has actually been proposed and discussed before the U.S. presidential election. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the (Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act of 2024) on July 31, 2024, which suggests purchasing 200,000 Bitcoins annually, reaching 1 million within five years.
Subsequently, during the campaign, Trump promised to become the 'Cryptocurrency President' in his speech at a Bitcoin conference in the crypto industry. The industry hopes he will fulfill his promise by creating a Bitcoin inventory through an executive order, ensuring that the industry can access banking services and establishing a cryptocurrency committee.
On December 17, 2024, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) (note that it is a non-official organization, but a non-profit organization focused on Bitcoin policy research, yet it remains one of the important think tanks for decision-makers on Bitcoin-related issues) recently released a draft executive order, attempting to provide reference opinions for Trump's 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' executive order framework. This draft clearly proposes: recommending that 1%-5% of the government bond assets be used to purchase Bitcoin to form a long-term reserve, led by the Treasury, with collaboration from the Federal Reserve to gradually establish reserves, etc.
On December 19, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (expected to continue his term after Trump takes office) expressed cautious views at a press conference. Powell stated that the Federal Reserve has no intention of participating in any government accumulation of Bitcoin, as such issues fall under Congress's responsibilities, and the Federal Reserve has not sought to change existing laws to allow for the holding of Bitcoin.
From the latest situation, although the Federal Reserve Chairman holds a conservative opinion, under favorable conditions such as the crypto-friendly U.S. Treasury Secretary nominated by Trump and the rapidly issued 'Presidential Executive Order' after taking office, these will not affect the Trump team's continued push to include Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves plan.
02 Earliest Implementation Time
Given that 'the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' is not a small topic, it is not something that the U.S. President can execute immediately on a whim. Therefore, we will not see its realization immediately. From the current perspective of the country's executive orders or legislative processes, if Trump wishes to implement the Bitcoin strategic reserve, he must immediately have the cryptocurrency committee conduct policy research and feasibility assessments after taking office, formally propose a plan upon completion, which can then proceed through two paths:
Path One: Presidential Executive Order (Earliest in the second half of 2025)
Trump's direct issuance of an executive order after taking office is the quickest path, as it can bypass conservative and opposing resistance from the Federal Reserve and Congress. It also refers to the draft provided by the 'Bitcoin Policy Institute', instructing the U.S. Treasury to directly allocate Bitcoin using the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).
However, while this method is quick and convenient, it also has side effects. Although the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund can operate without Congressional approval, it can be investigated and legislated by Congress. Executive orders can also be overturned and modified by the next president, so their durability and stability are not as good as legislation.
Path Two: Congressional Legislation (Earliest in the second half of 2026)
If a more stable legislative path is taken, it will require a longer process. After policy research and feasibility assessment by the cryptocurrency committee, the bill needs to be submitted to Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee, then it must go through the Senate, the House of Representatives, and be signed by the President before legislation can be formally completed.
This process may undergo various repeated pulls and be relatively complex, as many conservative lawmakers will definitely raise objections and attempt to obstruct. Therefore, although this path can lead to a lasting and stable bill, it will take a long time, likely not materializing until the second half of 2026 to 2027.
Recently, news has emerged that the crypto industry is pushing Trump's team to issue an executive order on his first day in office next month to initiate the promised cryptocurrency policy reforms and help promote the mainstreaming of crypto. If done through an executive order, we might see the Bitcoin strategic reserves come to fruition as early as mid-2025.
03 Several important time nodes
During the 'process' of the relevant executive orders or bills regarding the Bitcoin strategic reserves, the following time nodes may have a significant impact on the market:
1) January 20, 2025, around Trump's inauguration ceremony
Trump will officially take office on this day, and from this time, he can formally begin to 'issue orders'. This time node will mark the beginning of the new president's governance, and related policy trends may gradually emerge. The market will pay close attention to the inaugural speech and the early release of executive orders. This inauguration ceremony is expected to be lively as Trump has invited many guests, and the financial market will also pay close attention.
2) Mid-2025, completion of the policy research phase
According to the timeline, the policy research of the cryptocurrency committee is expected to be completed and a feasibility report and draft regarding Bitcoin reserves proposed by mid-2025. Subsequently, Trump could sign an executive order, marking the formal introduction of the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve'.
3) From the second half of 2025 to early 2026, implementation details and potential congressional pulling.
After signing the relevant executive orders and confirming the related framework, the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and other relevant departments will begin to formulate specific implementation details, including Bitcoin procurement methods, reserve ratios, asset management rules, etc., and then formally implement them.
During this period, it is unlikely to go smoothly, as opposing lawmakers in Congress will join in obstructing and repeatedly pulling.
Finally, if everything goes smoothly and the Bitcoin reserve strategy brings objective 'benefits', it may further promote legislation in the future, which will have a profound impact on the crypto market landscape.
04 Summary
'The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' path seems to be full of twists and turns; it is not something that can be realized in a day or two, and at the earliest, it will take at least six months. However, regardless of how it unfolds, Trump's 'U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' has brought good expectations while also 'setting a model' that drives central banks, financial institutions, and listed companies in various countries to study and explore the feasibility of Bitcoin reserves. Although there may still be many uncertainties regarding policy details and the final implementation timeline, we still need to follow and pay attention to key time nodes and be ready to make adjustments.
