Article source: Nancy
Author: Nancy, PANews
In 2024, the crypto market experienced a tumultuous year filled with volatility and development, with Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 barrier to open a new chapter for the industry. In this ever-changing market, some traders lost their direction due to mindset issues, poor position management, information lag, and lack of strategy, while others successfully seized market opportunities and achieved considerable returns through precise decision-making, decisive actions, and deep market insights.
In the alternation between market booms and recessions, effectively grasping the balance between risk and return, and adjusting strategies to respond to different market fluctuations, are key factors determining whether one can achieve long-term profits in the crypto market. This article from PANews shares insights and investment lessons from interviews with several experienced traders, discussing how to optimize trading strategies, capture market opportunities, and retain profits.
Trading Reflection: Risk, Strategy, and Emotion
In the volatility and uncertainty of the crypto market, the experiences and lessons of traders provide valuable insights. Whether adopting a conservative investment strategy or speculating on short-term opportunities, risk management, strategy adjustment, and emotion control are especially important in trading.
Chainup Investment CIO Amanda has over seven years of experience in crypto trading, and she has flexibly adjusted strategies this year based on market changes. For example, in Q1, she selected several potential projects, including AI tokens RENDER, FET, and AIOZ, as well as DeFi tokens RBN, PENDLE, and INJ; by Q4, in addition to investing in IOTA, she actively purchased DOGE, PEPE, and some politically-themed MEME coins, while also holding multiple projects like RSR, DYDX, LQTY, and KAIA. Additionally, Amanda pays great attention to short-term speculative opportunities. In November, she increased her position to capture the benefits of the Trump Trade and exited timely to take profits. However, she also revealed some regrets in the interview, such as missing the opportunity to heavily invest in SOL and MEME in the first half of the year, and although she successfully captured the gains in the first half of SUI, she couldn't fully grasp the subsequent increase.
CashCashBot founder CashSprinkler has also accumulated extensive trading experience in the crypto field, with seven years of trading history allowing him to navigate the market with ease. In an interview, he revealed that he achieved good results in investments in the MEME sector this year, particularly with MOODENG's staggering 5000-fold increase bringing in $350,000 in profits.
With three years of trading experience, crypto KOL LaserCat397 is a deep player in the MEME track, achieving a significant overall asset growth this year through investments in MEME coins. However, he also faced challenges in investment judgment and position management, such as missteps in the operation of the MEME coin PUPS, which led to a near 90% drawdown in floating profits.
In contrast, Alex, with six years of trading experience and currently a VP at Cobo, adopts a conservative investment strategy. His most successful trades this year came from Bitcoin, while his biggest regret was participating in the airdrop activities of aevo and vertex, missing the opportunity of Hyperliquid.
Top trader Eugene has also recently summarized his experiences and lessons in trading, especially regarding neglecting stop-loss points and failing to cut losses in time. He revealed that due to SOL's strong performance in low time frames (LTF) and the confidence gained from previous successful trades, he went long on SOL with $60 million, but when SOL fell below the stop-loss point, he still chose to hold on, maintaining a 'hopeful' mindset, leading to the largest single loss in his account.
A survival guide from tools to mindset
In trading decisions, many successful traders use third-party tools to assist decision-making, improving efficiency and accuracy, thereby reducing decision-making errors. These tools can help capture market signals, analyze on-chain data, and provide real-time feedback, helping traders better grasp the pulse of the market.
Amanda revealed in an interview that her team developed a data monitoring platform and customized on-chain data tools like Dune and Flipside. At the same time, the team also uses CryptoQuant, Coinglass, Artemis, Defillama, and Kaito to observe on-chain Bitcoin data, exchange contract data, and public chain indicators to help make more precise investment decisions.
CashSprinkler believes that on-chain data analysis is crucial for capturing market trends in advance. He uses the on-chain trading signals and data analysis tools provided by his developed CashCashBot, which can help quickly identify which market hotspots are attracting smart money and the potential investment directions of on-chain major holders. LaserCat397 mentioned that he used Abot, but this tool is about to shut down.
Although leveraging the power of third-party tools can enhance trading levels, trading in the crypto market, characterized by high volatility and high risk, is not easy. Even experienced traders cannot guarantee that all their judgments are correct. Therefore, survival experience is particularly valuable, especially for novice traders.
Crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa pointed out that a bull market does not mean all coins will return to ATH (all-time high) levels. One should not stubbornly hold on to unrealistic target prices. If the investment portfolio is highly diversified, it is recommended to sell 50-75% of the holdings at the end of the next rotation. Additionally, continuous weekly data analysis should be conducted, and the top and end points of market cycles should be constantly reassessed, with independent analysis and operation of one's investment portfolio.
"The most successful traders do not achieve their accomplishments by perfectly timing every peak. If you have untapped profits that could change your life, you will gain a benefit that cannot be measured in money: a permanent improvement in your life and those around you," pointed out crypto researcher Route 2 FI.
Former TradFi CTO @Game believes that investors should focus on key areas, combining funding scale, advantages, and market conditions to concentrate on the areas that align best with current market conditions and can bring the highest returns. They should also clarify their operational methods in investments, trading, and speculation, and develop a clear action plan (market cap range, stop-loss points, profit plans, etc.) and maintain ongoing reflection. Additionally, they should not work in isolation but expand their horizons to include important information circles that provide insights beyond their understanding, such as macro trends and market cycles.
Crypto KOL Based Money Lich King summarized dozens of survival rules, such as not recklessly using perpetual contracts, not blindly idolizing founders, not locking up your tokens, not buying assets that have surged, not connecting to unfamiliar applications at random, remembering to take profits, and other practical advice.
Amanda suggested that newcomers should keep an open mind, always pay attention to the dynamic changes in the market, focus on areas they understand, find the balance between the positives and negatives of a project, and only invest when they can accept the negatives of the project and the positives far outweigh the negatives. The CashSprinkler emphasizes that on-chain data analysis ability is an essential skill for every trader, and one should establish a trading strategy suitable for themselves and strictly execute it. Alex believes that cultivating the right mindset is key, as a good mindset helps make calm decisions. LaserCat397 also suggests that newcomers start from their areas of strength, find a suitable track for themselves, and focus on doing what they are good at, which will yield great results with less effort.
Strategy optimization from opportunity capture to profit retention
In the context of changing market environments, adjusting trading strategies and methods is also crucial for accelerating returns. From the sharing of traders, we can see that we should respond flexibly to market changes and continuously assess and optimize trading strategies based on our own situation, finding opportunities from short-term market fluctuations and maintaining flexibility and sensitivity in long-term trends.
Alex candidly stated in an interview that the crypto market experienced a significant pullback in March this year, particularly in August and September, when market liquidity was extremely low. During this phase, his personal strategy was to withdraw funds from the market and invest in neutral strategies in DeFi and arbitrage. He believes that as the crypto market becomes increasingly professional, the returns from previous capital fee arbitrage strategies are gradually diminishing, hence new opportunities must be sought, with strategies increasingly migrating to on-chain solutions.
"The previous trading path was BTC to ETH, then to large coins, and finally small coins; but now it is BTC to SOL, then to small coins. The issuance of stablecoins has a more significant impact on the performance of small coins," Amanda pointed out. During market fluctuations, appropriate rebalancing and profit-taking are necessary. Risk management is very important; generally, she categorizes each investment token/project before making decisions based on whether the project has fundamentals, whether it has popularity, and whether it is driven by technology. For projects with fundamentals, positions can be appropriately increased; for popular projects, it is essential to judge the sustainability of the popularity and watch for catalysts (as the crypto space is still an inefficient market, one must pursue market consensus, and discovering Alpha too early also has significant opportunity costs); for projects driven by technology, close attention should be paid to price trends. She emphasizes that in a bear market, it is necessary to reduce holdings of coins with suboptimal economic models, while in a bull market, strategies should be adjusted more sensitively, frequently trading and taking profits.
In the view of CashSprinkler, this year's market is more focused on on-chain MEME. He believes that changes in on-chain data are high-value reference signals that could not be obtained from exchanges in the past, allowing for more precise trading strategies. For example, trading strategies can be adjusted by analyzing changes in on-chain major holdings data.
LaserCat397 stated in an interview that the market was very difficult to operate in mid-year this year. He suggested that everyone should do less and observe more in such market environments, waiting for the best timing. In a bull market, one needs to open up the pattern and then hold on tight.
Altcoin Sherpa also stated that in the near future, investors should try to consolidate investments, reducing the number of new positions and lowering the overall variety of holdings. In the recent wave of rising markets, he has already sold many low-confidence coins and reallocated funds to other higher-quality projects.
"Making money in the crypto market is one thing; holding onto profits is another. When you plan your exit strategy for a cycle, the goal is to minimize the drawdown from the peak after the cycle changes. For those who claim to be able to sustain profits in both bull and bear markets, I can only wish you luck because it means you have to become one of the top 0.01% traders in the world," emphasized Eugene.
Potential sectors and investment opportunities from the perspective of traders in 2025
In a bullish atmosphere, major global institutions have recently released their projections and forecasts for the crypto market in 2025. From the perspective of traders, 2025 will be a more diversified and mature market, with various emerging sectors and technologies likely becoming new growth points.
Altcoin Sherpa pointed out that the crypto market is expected to welcome a new upward phase in the next 4-8 weeks, mainly driven by the high dominance of Bitcoin (btc.d), seasonal factors, potential rises in Ethereum/Bitcoin, market capital rotation, and the government's positive attitude. However, from a rotation perspective, it seems that all coins will rise, but there is no overall upward trend. From now on, the market will mainly belong to traders rather than long-term holders.
LaserCat397 believes that 2025 will still be the main stage for MEME sectors. In addition, he is particularly optimistic about the performance of infrastructure projects, especially in the payment sector. CashSprinkler forecasts that 2025 will be a year of massive popularity for the crypto market. He believes that compared to the past, various infrastructures will see significant improvements, which will attract more users and funds into the market. Especially since MEME coins are simple and easy to understand, along with their powerful dissemination capabilities, they are highly likely to become the first choice for new traffic entering the market.
Alex also holds an optimistic view of the market prospects for 2025, believing that the future focus will mainly be on AI, DeFi, and payment sectors. Amanda pointed out that 2025 could be the latter half of the crypto bull market, with significant growth potential for small coins. She reminds investors to pay attention to the 'top signal', which refers to changes in market signals and high-risk timing, while emphasizing the importance of 'being sifu'—exiting the market at the right moment to avoid being engulfed by market fluctuations. In specific sector selections, she is optimistic about the overall growth potential of AI, especially AI agents, the Move language (more choices for RWA, BTC L2, Chain Abstraction, new DeFi), and RWA-related projects.
Eugene is optimistic about the MEME market; he recently specifically mentioned four MEME coins: MOODENG, CHILLGUY, PNUT, and GOAT. He believes that although these MEME coins have already experienced significant panic selling and have given back most of the gains from the altcoin season, he still sees potential in these projects and tends to consider them as long-term holdings.
