Written by: ChandlerZ, Foresight News
In 2024, the cryptocurrency market embraced a new peak with an unstoppable wave, with Bitcoin as the market's barometer making a strong return to mainstream visibility, officially breaking through the $100,000 mark, showcasing its unique vigor. This year, the cryptocurrency market witnessed Bitcoin's fourth halving, with both mining hash rate and market share reaching historical highs, the landing of spot ETFs accelerated fund inflows, and the on-chain ecosystem continued to evolve amidst the rise of DeFi, meme coins, and new public chains. Solana made a strong comeback, while the NFT market entered a de-bubbling phase, from the macro pattern to micro data, the entire cryptocurrency market displayed new momentum and differentiation characteristics.
Standing at this critical node of the cycle, on-chain data outlines a panorama of the cryptocurrency market where capital is accelerating influx, ecosystems are diversifying, and structural opportunities continue to emerge.
This annual summary will take you through the 10 key points of the on-chain world in 2024, analyzing how the cryptocurrency market has crossed hills and reached new heights this year, providing data support and insights for future development.
Bitcoin
1. Bitcoin completed its fourth halving, with mining difficulty and hash rate reaching historical highs.
On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin successfully welcomed its fourth halving at block height 840,000, reducing the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The inflation rate of Bitcoin dropped to 0.85%, lower than the previous cycle's 1.7%. This change in data is an important node in Bitcoin's supply model, surpassing gold's stable issuance rate (approximately 2.3%) in terms of scarcity for the first time, undoubtedly marking a milestone moment in its growth trajectory.
At the same time, the mining difficulty for Bitcoin miners and the average hash rate across the network are also gradually increasing. As of December 2, the Bitcoin mining difficulty was adjusted by 1.59% at block height 872,928, reaching a historical high of 103.92 T, while the average hash rate across the network surged to 726.57 EH/s.
Data source: Foresight News, Glassnode
From the first halving of Bitcoin to the current fourth halving, each cycle has witnessed a dual leap in price and hash rate, reflecting the gradual maturation of the ecosystem. After the first halving, Bitcoin's hash rate increased by about 54,400 times; the second halving brought an increase of 85 times; while the third halving, despite a decline in returns, still achieved a 409% increase. Meanwhile, hash rates have gradually transitioned from exponential growth in early cycles to steady expansion on a high base, with the current cycle exceeding 700 EH/s.
Although the growth rate of miners' unit income has slowed due to the halving of Bitcoin rewards, the total income of miners, measured in dollars, is still expanding as Bitcoin prices continue to rise. During the previous halving cycle, cumulative miner income exceeded $3 billion, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous halving cycle. This performance further illustrates that the miner community is adapting to cost pressures while participating in network operations in a more efficient manner.
2. The halving effect is evident, and the current bull market process has not yet reached its conclusion.
'Halving' has always been a key event in the Bitcoin market, representing a technical node for the reduction of block rewards, and a significant catalyst for market sentiment and capital flow. The historical price trends since the halving date indicate that the market performance in different halving cycles varies significantly, reflecting the trajectory of market maturation and the complex interplay of supply-demand games and market expectations. In the first halving cycle, Bitcoin's price increased by 5315%, with a maximum drawdown of 85%; the second halving cycle saw an increase of 1336%, with a maximum drawdown of 83%; the third halving cycle saw growth slow to 569%, with the maximum drawdown shrinking to 77%.
This gradually smoothing volatility indicates that the expansion of market scale and the increase in capital flow are buffering the diminishing returns effect brought by the halving.
Data source: Foresight News, Glassnode
From the perspective of supply-demand relationships, the halving market is not merely driven by a reduction in supply, but is a result of the dynamic balance of supply-demand and the interplay of market expectations. The early entry and long-term layout of institutional funds have established new price support for the market, while the retail FOMO sentiment further amplifies the increase.
It is worth noting that this halving cycle is the first to break historical peak (ATH) before the halving. From the overall performance before and after the halving, the current market is still in an upward phase, and future growth may continue to find new equilibrium points in the supply-demand game.
3. The magnitude of pullbacks in this round of the bull market is much smaller than in previous cycles.
A significant feature of this round of the Bitcoin market is that the magnitude of the pullback has noticeably decreased, showcasing unprecedented buying power and market resilience. Compared to previous cycles where the pullbacks often exceeded 30% or even 50%, this round's deepest pullback has only been around 30%, indirectly confirming the overall improvement in the market supply-demand relationship, and demonstrating the dual support from institutional funds and favorable policies. Particularly, the approval of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and the positive changes in the related policy environment have injected long-term capital into the market and boosted investor confidence.
Data source: Foresight News, Glassnode
This phenomenon of shallow pullbacks can be seen as a sign of the gradual maturation of market structure. With the deep participation of institutional investors, the Bitcoin market is transitioning from a highly volatile phase driven by early retail investors to a more stable development led by institutional funds. Meanwhile, the launch of spot ETFs has also provided convenient entry channels for long-term funds, reducing the severe pullbacks caused by short-term market sentiment fluctuations.
4. Bitcoin's market share rises, reaching a multi-year high.
The Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D) is an important indicator measuring Bitcoin's market capitalization as a proportion of the entire cryptocurrency market. Starting from September 2022, Bitcoin's market share has shown an overall upward trend, breaking through 60% at one point in 2024, with an annual increase of over 10%, refreshing the high point since April 2021. This phenomenon can be traced in Bitcoin's historical cycles, usually marking the concentrated inflow of funds at the beginning of a bull market.
According to past patterns, the initiation phase of a bull market is often accompanied by a rise in Bitcoin's market share, as more funds flow into Bitcoin, the core asset of the market, while the performance of other tokens lags behind. When Bitcoin's market share reaches its peak, market liquidity and investment sentiment are often close to a critical point. At this time, investors begin to take profits, causing Bitcoin's market share to decline, and the market gradually shifts funds towards altcoins, forming the so-called 'Altcoin Season.'
Data source: Foresight News, CoinMarketCap
However, the rise in Bitcoin's market share this round is different from the past in that the deep participation of institutional funds and the approval of spot ETFs have further strengthened Bitcoin's dominance, significantly enhancing its appeal compared to other assets. This may mean that the peak of Bitcoin's market share will be more sustainable in the upcoming bull market, while the arrival of 'Altcoin Season' may be delayed or even weakened, leading to a market structure that gradually tends toward a more centralized pattern.
Market
5. Accelerated capital entry: Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow surges, stablecoin market value rises in sync.
On January 11, 2024, the U.S. SEC announced the expedited approval for the listing of Bitcoin spot ETFs, authorizing 11 ETFs to be listed simultaneously. This news quickly ignited market enthusiasm, triggering a massive influx of institutional funds. With the official launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, various Bitcoin spot ETFs have currently locked in over 1.316 million bitcoins, accounting for 6.267% of the total supply, a significantly higher ratio than the 2.522% held by various governments and the total holdings of private and public companies.
Data source: Foresight News, Glassnode, BitcoinTreasuries
As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $115.78 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $37.009 billion.
On the other hand, the continued expansion of the stablecoin market, especially the massive issuance of Tether, has become another important driving force for external capital inflows. In November 2024 alone, Tether accumulated an issuance of over $13 billion USDT, reaching the fastest issuance speed since 2021. According to DefiLlama data, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has surpassed $200 billion, currently reported at $204.13 billion, setting a new historical high.
Data source: Foresight News, IntoTheBlock
Among these, the market value of USDT has climbed to $140 billion, once again breaking historical records, accounting for 68.96% of the total stablecoin market value. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 became a turning point in the stablecoin market structure, leading to a sharp reduction in USDC's share, while the supply of USDT steadily increased.
6. Top twenty by increase (within market cap 200): The rise of new public chains and memes.
In 2024, the performance of meme tokens and new public chains shows a distinct trend. To more accurately depict the developments of this year, we focus on the annual growth of tokens ranked in the top 200 by market capitalization, which shows that meme tokens and new public chains have become the most active sectors in the market. Among them, meme tokens like Popcat, SPX6900, and Mog Coin saw increases of over 5000%. From being initially a derivative for entertainment and topics, meme economics has attracted the participation of a large number of retail investors through community-driven consensus and brand effects, thus driving rapid price increases and forming a unique market behavior pattern.
Data source: Foresight News, CoinMarketCap (to be processed into a table)
The new public chain sector also performed strongly, with projects like Mantra, AIOZ Network, and Sui occupying a place in the market through dual drives of technological innovation and ecological expansion. These public chains do not merely rely on general technological advantages but focus on unique sector positioning and differentiated development.
For example, Mantra's transition to RWA public chains further explores the tokenization of on-chain assets and the connection to the real financial market; AIOZ Network focuses on AI+DePIN, creating a Layer 1 designed for AI applications and decentralized infrastructure; while SUI's innovation lies in its SUI Move language, enhancing the development efficiency and security of smart contracts through a new programming language design, while also optimizing user interaction experience on-chain.
7. The emergence of meme launchpads has become key to the surge of new tokens.
In the early days, Ethereum became the primary choice for meme tokens due to its mature smart contract standards. In 2024, the rise of meme launchpad platforms like Pump.fun further propelled this trend.
According to data from The Block, as of September 30 this year, among all 110,180 new tokens issued on-chain, Solana accounted for 96,010, making up over 87% of all new tokens appearing on DEX. The number of new tokens on the Solana blockchain soared from nearly zero at the beginning of 2024 to over 100,000 each month by mid-year. Although Solana is in the lead, Base has also performed well. Since April, these two chains have collectively accounted for over 80% of new token issuance.
Data source: Foresight News, The Block
The design of Pump.fun simplifies the issuance process for meme coins, allowing users to quickly create their own tokens through simple operations. Its unique joint curve pricing mechanism enables token prices to automatically adjust with demand changes, while the liquidity injection feature of smart contracts ensures liquidity for new tokens in the early stages of trading. This innovative model characterized by low thresholds and high liquidity greatly stimulates community vitality and simultaneously promotes the development of Solana.
8. The near-death Solana DeFi made a strong comeback in 2024.
From the distribution and dynamic changes of total TVL across various ecosystems, it can be seen that Ethereum still dominates in 2024, with a share of 64.06%, consolidating its position as the core DeFi platform. Solana ranks second with an 8.83% share, demonstrating a strong recovery in 2024.
At the same time, the market share of chains like BSC and Tron remains relatively stable, while emerging chains like Arbitrum and Sui show rapid growth potential. From the area chart, it can be observed that Ethereum's share has slightly declined since 2022, contrasting with the rise of other chains, particularly Solana, which began to rebound significantly in 2023. This trend reflects the accelerated maturation of the multi-chain ecosystem and the dynamic changes in the competitive landscape. Although Ethereum still dominates, market resources are being distributed towards more diversified and specialized chains.
Data source: Foresight News, DeFiLlama
Solana's recovery is closely tied to the prosperity of its ecosystem, especially with the rise of Sol series meme tokens in 2024 significantly increasing its on-chain users. The popularity of meme tokens not only attracts new users to the Solana network but also greatly enhances the on-chain activity and trading volume. These tokens inject new vitality into the Solana ecosystem, allowing it to quickly recover from a 'sunk ecosystem' state.
From the latest data, Solana's TVL has reached $21.4 billion, with a total market value exceeding $100.6 billion. According to statistics from Blockworks Research, in October this year, Solana's on-chain daily fees consistently exceeded those of Ethereum for several days, with revenue exceeding $10 million on October 24. In November, Solana accounted for nearly 50% of the monthly DEX trading volume across all chains, significantly higher than Ethereum's approximately 18% share.
9. CEX dominates the market, while DEX shines in long-tail assets and cross-chain trading.
In 2024, the trading volume share of DEX fluctuated significantly, hovering between 10% and 15%, without significantly breaking through new heights. In February, the DEX/CEX trading volume ratio once dropped to an annual low of 7.88%. Subsequently, with the market's recovery and the warming of liquidity, this ratio gradually rebounded.
The current market structure still sees the dominant position of CEX difficult to shake, although DEX has shown significant advantages in long-tail assets and cross-chain trading, its overall proportion is still limited by challenges such as liquidity, user experience, and regulatory compliance. At the same time, the fluctuations in 2024 indicate that DEX's usage rate is highly correlated with market sentiment; when market risk appetite rises, its trading activity tends to increase.
Data source: Foresight News, The Block
Additionally, compared to traditional CEX, the prospects for on-chain derivatives trading are also rapidly opening up. Decentralized trading platforms represented by Hyperliquid are attracting the attention of more and more traders and institutions with liquidity and execution efficiency comparable to centralized exchanges, as well as transparent operational mechanisms and innovative token economic models. Hyperliquid's success indicates that on-chain derivatives trading is continuously narrowing the gap with traditional CEX in terms of efficiency and depth, showcasing the enormous growth potential of the on-chain derivatives market through unique incentive models and open ecosystems.
10. The NFT boom is hard to return to its peak: the stage of de-bubbling.
The NFT market showed signs of recovery at the end of the year after a long period of stagnation. According to a report from Galaxy Research, NFT trading volume began to gradually rise since the U.S. presidential election in November, with weekly trading volume reaching $172 million in early December, the highest level since May this year. This recovery was mainly driven by the increased activity of major market platforms like OpenSea, Blur, and Magic Eden, where Blur and OpenSea accounted for 60% and 27% of the market share respectively in the past 30 days. At the same time, blue-chip NFTs represented by the Pudgy Penguins series performed particularly well, with their floor prices rising by 206% and 265% respectively.
Data source: Foresight News, The Block
However, despite the rebound in trading volume, the market overall is still in a phase of de-bubbling. Compared to the NFT boom in 2021, the current rebound is more driven by top blue-chip projects and core user groups rather than large-scale market enthusiasm or speculative behavior. The trading ecosystem of NFTs is gradually adjusting, shifting from purely relying on high speculative returns to placing greater emphasis on the actual application scenarios of projects and community participation.
Summary
Overall, the cryptocurrency market in 2024 ushered in a new highlight moment, showcasing strong resilience and vitality. As the market's barometer, Bitcoin attracted deep participation from institutional funds under the promotion of spot ETFs and continuously increased its market share, solidifying its position as a core asset.
The rise of new public chains and meme coins has created a unique prosperity in the market's fringe sectors, showcasing the powerful potential of community-driven and innovative economies. Whether it is the continuous innovation in DeFi or the accelerated landing of RWA, this year’s diversified development of on-chain ecosystems and the gradual improvement of infrastructure have created more possibilities for future market growth.
The market performance in 2024 is not just a periodic boom but a brewing of a new order. In the upcoming new phase, the cryptocurrency industry is likely to further consolidate its important position in the global economic landscape, laying a solid foundation for the future development of digital finance and on-chain economy.
