The last drop, if it happens, will probably be around Q2 to Q3 next year, that is, after April. If a recession occurs, interest rates may quickly drop to 0, and to save the economy, there will be QE, which is monetary easing. Then from the end of 2025 to 2026, there will be a repeat of the end of 2020 to 2021. So, by then, in 2026, there will be a big bull market. This will be the season of a massive rally in altcoins. During a recession, it is definitely a time to position oneself. FOMO is very intense during FOMO times, and panic will also be very intense during panic times; the drop during this recession can be compared to the historical 312.

If there is no recession after Q2 next year and a soft landing is achieved, then interest rates (currently at 4.5) may still be high even if they are cut one, two, or three times next year. There would be no monetary easing, at most just an expansion after the end of balance sheet reduction. This is very complicated; the balance sheet reduction has not ended, and it is still unknown where the expansion will occur. It also depends on some economic policies after Trump takes office. To put it bluntly, in such a situation, there will be an altcoin season, but it will definitely not be as large as the previous monetary easing. This situation will be very tedious. We need to pay attention to macro factors.

In any case, Q1 next year is something to look forward to, and then starting in April, we'll see. Friends, including myself and perhaps everyone in crypto, certainly hope for a recession or a black swan event. But in reality, we still need to watch the actual situation.

Finally, the four-year bull-bear cycle. This may change slowly, and we need to embrace change. Pay attention to macro conditions, liquidity, BTC's position narrative policies, etc. Let's wait and see. #灰度提交Horizen信托文件 #“圣诞老人行情”再现 #2025加密趋势预测 #2025有哪些关键叙事？ #币安Alpha第7批项目公布