Autor: 0xKyle
Compilado por: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
Nota do editor: Este artigo é a previsão do mercado e o plano de resposta para 2025 do conhecido analista e trader 0xKyle.
A seguir, 0xKyle analisa os vários cenários que podem ocorrer para Bitcoin e altcoins em 2025 e discute por que o gerenciamento ativo de portfólio superará o gerenciamento passivo de portfólio no novo ano. 0xKyle também se lista no final do artigo Os setores e rastreia isso. estamos otimistas sobre o que pode ser útil para o layout do novo ano.
A seguir está o conteúdo original de 0xKyle, compilado por Odaily Planet Daily.
GM.
Predicting the future is difficult, but as traders and investors, we should have a plan. Like all other plans, this one will change as the underlying scenario changes — the market is constantly evolving. This plan is based solely on my predictions for market developments over the next year; it provides insights into my thoughts for 2025 but should not be taken as financial advice.
Let me first review my plans for 2024 (Odaily note: given that this section mainly involves Kyle's personal operation review, this article chooses to directly pass).
Let’s get straight to the point. As usual, I will first discuss macro expectations / scenario assumptions and then turn to thematic narratives.
Scenario assumptions
The new cycle of '2024 - ??' has already begun. Personally, I believe this cycle began at the end of 2023, but if we sort this cycle in a stricter way, the progress so far is:
→ January 10, Bitcoin ETF launched;
→ BTC sets a new high, briefly triggering altcoin season;
→ Subsequently enter a period of oscillation in Q2 and Q3, with BTC hovering between $50,000 and $60,000;
→ After the election day, BTC sets a new high, rising to $100,000;
→ Has not effectively broken through the $100,000 mark for now, currently hovering above $90,000.
It should be noted that altcoin seasons often begin at Bitcoin's peak positions; the first was during BTC's attempt to break through $69,000 but failed; the second was during BTC's attempt to break through $100,000.
The next round of altcoin cycles is likely to begin after BTC stabilizes above $100,000. I cannot predict the future, although I hope this will happen in the first quarter of 2025, based on the facts, we might also see a replay of the oscillation market in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 in the coming months — I must be prepared for this. Therefore, here are all the scenario assumptions I have drawn.
Assumed Scenario One: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together.
In that case, the rise will be the only theme for 2025, and we will also enter another round of altcoin season. Due to Bitcoin's continued rise, all currencies will perform well, and we will repeat the market seen in the last two months of 2024, where the entire market is 'rising.'
Probability: 30% - 40%;
Corresponding strategy: buy during the current 'panic,' get into strong altcoins.
Assumed Scenario Two: Bitcoin rises, other currencies rise less.
This will replay the scenario of 2024, and in the coming months, we will see altcoins oscillate, but Bitcoin will be more bullish (because only Bitcoin is rising). Some altcoin sectors will also perform well.
Probability: 50% - 60%;
Corresponding strategy: still buy amid the current 'panic,' but need to get into specific sectors of altcoins, focusing on avoiding high attention areas and looking for the next potential narrative to rise.
Assumed Scenario Three: Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall.
This means that now is the top for altcoins, even though Bitcoin will continue to perform well.
Probability: 20% - 30%;
Corresponding strategy: sell all altcoins. Although having to endure some pullbacks, if altcoins do not rise, we may have to sell everything.
Assumed Scenario Four: Bitcoin falls, altcoins fall.
Probability: 10% - 20%.
I believe several things will happen. I believe BTC's next new high won't take as long as it did in 2024 because the macro tailwinds are indeed present. During a cycle where the regulatory environment is hellish, ETFs have been launched, but TradFi still needs to work hard to sell the story about BTC to customers, as the whole world does not believe in the importance of Bitcoin.
Now that Trump is about to take office, the talk about Bitcoin's Strategic Reserve (SBR) has been heated. Market sentiment has changed; I will not speculate on the likelihood of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve system — I have no experience with the intersection of politics and finance.
What I care about is the narrative — the fact is that this incoming new regime has brought a lot of new attention to digital assets, and now it is easier to persuade people to buy Bitcoin, as even the president of the world's largest country is frequently discussing it.
This change in macro context is very important. Therefore, I believe Bitcoin will continue to enjoy tailwinds in 2025, while altcoins will tell a similar but different story.
Total l3 (note: total value of altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) reached a peak in the first quarter of 2024, then peaked in the fourth quarter of 20424. Honestly, my Scenario Assumption One and Scenario Assumption Two are not much different.
The key lies in positioning and timing. I am optimistic about 2025, but I do not know how long it will take for the market to arrive — although I do believe that a market that only rises would come faster than in 2024, altcoins will still bleed heavily in the absence of catalysts.
Whether Bitcoin or other coins, as long as the cycle has not peaked, my plan is to always maintain a net long position. I do not believe 2025 will replicate the scene of the summer of 2024, but I think we will encounter periods similar to now — the market is just relatively quiet, but prices are still well maintained.
The on-chain world is completely different; when the tide goes out, the on-chain market can easily see -70% volatility. Therefore, for the on-chain market, my goal has always been to sell during peak attention periods and reinvest into top altcoins (top 20), and then slowly start further deployments.
I do not believe altcoins will top out here because I do not believe Bitcoin will continue to rise while altcoins die, nor do I believe Bitcoin will hit a cyclical top at this position.
So my conclusion is: BTC will continue to rise, and the increase will exceed that of 2024; for altcoins, my theme remains aggressive, but it is necessary to know when to switch to defense, though the defensive inclination will be lower than in 2024.
Risks
Cyclical top risk
Predictions about cycle tops require constant self-correction. While I don’t believe we are close to a cycle top, it must be reassessed weekly. The cycle top is not necessarily an 'event,' but more like a spectrum that gradually approaches over time.
SBR cash-out risk
With the new president in office, everyone will pay attention to his actions. Although Bitcoin is expected to experience regulatory tailwinds, if the president completely forgets about it, that would be quite a bearish event. The risks that may arise in my opinion include: SBR being forgotten; or a more likely scenario is that SBR will not occur but will advance in some other way.
For the latter scenario (changing the SBR plan), this could initially appear bearish but ultimately turn bullish, as long as the plan itself supports Bitcoin.
In summary: the emergence of bullish signals means that the bull market continues; the appearance of bearish signals means that the plan must be reassessed — the bull market may continue, but the odds will decrease.
Supply risk
In 2024, we witnessed crazy macro conditions in the summer, with the stock market hitting all-time highs, but the cryptocurrency market fell more than it rose due to the continuous selling pressure from large supply holders like Mt. Gox, the German government, Grayscale GBTC, etc.
Supply risks can never be eliminated. There will always be someone holding a large amount of Bitcoin — the UK government, the dark web Silk Road, FTX holdings, or any other entity. This is something you must keep an eye on, but in my view, if everything goes smoothly, these events will present decent buying opportunities.
Macroeconomic risks
I believe that fewer interest rate cuts are still cuts. Although this is 'less bullish,' the fact is that as long as interest rates continue to be lowered, liquidity will improve.
Once again, the emergence of bullish signals means the bull market will continue. Unless interest rates are raised or not lowered, the macro economy should be favorable for digital assets.
Themes and tokens
Now we reach the part everyone has been waiting for. But before listing specific themes and tokens, I want to emphasize again the idea I just mentioned — 'aggressive, but know when to switch to defense' — in this investment cycle, active portfolio management will outperform passive portfolio management.
'Buy and hold forever' is a thing of the past. Although it surged tenfold in 2023, Solana's overall performance in 2024 was almost on par with Bitcoin; so-called leaders like TAO did not benefit from the AI boom we have seen in recent months; and for meme tokens, dogs no longer wear hats (WIF), Chill guy is no longer chill, and hippos (MOODENG) seem to be at their last gasp...
Nothing on this list can make you 'buy and hold.'
Besides that, I also like to ponder a question — who are the marginal buyers? In this market, there are basically three main marginal buyers — institutions (traditional finance players), funds (liquid funds / cryptocurrency native funds), and gamblers (contract traders, on-chain players, etc.).
A good narrative must at least be bought by one party. Let’s get straight to the point.
Theme One: AI
Yes, AI will still be a hot theme. As mentioned earlier, we have already experienced several waves of AI, but if you've seen my paper on AI tokens (linked here), I believe the next wave is about to arrive.
Macroeconomic level: speculation > fundamentals > utility;
Microeconomic level: Reply guy > infrastructure > application / avatars.
Buying and holding will not yield good results. GOAT is the beginning of it all, but it has fallen 60% from its peak, and may continue to perform poorly.
Top choices: AI centered on application technology, Swarms, gaming, and consumers.
Projects like ALCH (game development), Griffain (proxy for wallet control), Digimon, ai16z (the king of all AI) are top choices in my opinion, and there are likely many more that I missed.
Theme Two: DeFi
This needs no further explanation. DeFi will continue to be a great narrative, however investing in DeFi is very difficult because very few tokens will benefit from it. Even if they do benefit, they may not rise (look at the LST track).
Honestly, in terms of risk-reward, this wouldn't be my first choice, but I think it will be a narrative that continues to grow through 2025.
Top choices: AAVE / ENA / Morpho / Euler / USUAL;
Secondary choices: stablecoins / payment-related tokens.
Theme Three: Layer 1
I may face a lot of hatred for saying this, but I believe Layer 1 trading opportunities are back. HYPE undoubtedly performs well, but SUI was actually not favored by many when it was around $1, yet it rose to $2, and now it's at $4. I think the market has been missing Layer 1 trades — it is one of the areas that nobody pays attention to, but it holds significant opportunities (HYPE has already increased tenfold as proof).
Top choices: SUI/HYPE;
Secondary choices: Abstract.
I don't know how much I like Monad and Berachain. However, I am very optimistic about Abstract; I think it could be a bombshell.
Theme Four: NFT tokens and gaming tokens
I also really like this theme. I have recently been buying into some gaming projects, and I think the NFT token sector is also worth paying attention to. PENGU has slowly rebounded, Azuki will have ANIME, and Doodles will also issue tokens... I don’t think NFTs will heat up, but I think their tokens will.
Gaming tokens are also interesting; Off-The-Grid has shown us the possibility of creating an interesting game. Given how pessimistic this sector is, I think we should dig deeper to find those genuinely interesting games that are about to launch tokens.
Top choices: PENGU / ANIME (Azuki) / Spellborne / Treeverse;
Secondary choices: PRIME / Off-The-Grid (if tokens are issued) / Overworld.
Theme Five: Other narratives
The following are on my watch list; I’m not particularly fond of them, but they are interesting.
Data tokens: Kaito / Arkm;
Meme tokens: I only like PEPE, the others... seem outdated;
DePIN: PEAQ / HNT;
Ordinals;
Old altcoins: XRP;
Old DeFi: CRV / CVX.
2025 Predictions
This is really just for fun, just some things that I think sound a bit incredible, but not impossible.
DePIN is implemented by a serious company in a serious manner, possibly through acquisition;
Binance is losing market share as a top exchange, not to Hyperliquid, but to Bybit/OKX;
With new advancements in VR technology, metaverse tokens are reborn;
ICOs are becoming popular again;
Ethereum's 'on-chain season' will not occur;
SUI price reaches double digits (at least $10);
Ethereum's staking rewards approved to be included in ETFs, thereby generating more staking reward products for other tokens, as well as yield aggregators like we saw in 2021;
A major artist uses NFTs and tokens to track and reward his/her fanbase;
Bitcoin reaches $200,000;
More Layer 1s are seeing their CEOs/founders leave after watching Aptos;
Base loses in the on-chain race, another Layer 1 takes its place. Solana maintains its position.
Conclusion
The above summarizes my expectations for 2025. I expect the real situation to differ significantly from my predictions, just like I did with my plans for 2024.
The best advice and insight is actually 'stay flexible, enjoy the journey.' The market will continue to change, but that’s just part of the game of life.
'No one can execute the same trade twice. Because the trades are different, and people are different.'
Good luck, we will meet again on the other side. If you have made life-changing profits during this process, remember to use it to change your life.