If the news resonates with the market:
If the market is bullish and the news is positive, then it is very likely to rise.
If the market is bearish and the news is positive, then the probability of a rise is low.
Recently, everyone has been discussing the EU's decision to delist USDT, causing many to worry that the market will plummet, leading to a spread of panic sentiment.
But I want to ask: what does the EU's delisting of USDT actually mean? If it's unclear, why do people think the market will plummet?
First, we need to clarify one point: the EU's delisting of USDT is actually only aimed at its own virtual currency exchanges, which is a relatively small market.
This means that exchanges in the EU will no longer support USDT, but it does not affect USDT trading on other exchanges like Binance, OKEx, Coinbase, and Sesame Credit.
Therefore, this measure only affects users trading on EU exchanges; users in other places can still use USDT.
Secondly, there are many stablecoins globally, not just USDT, but also USDC, BUSD, DAI, and other options.
It should be clarified that stablecoins are merely tools for purchasing virtual currencies. Even without USDT, transactions can still be conducted using other stablecoins.
Finally, why is such news appearing at this moment?
In fact, this is not a negative message, but retail investors believe it is bad news due to panic.
Retail investors are so sensitive because the market has recently dropped, and many people have been trapped. Coupled with the fluctuations experienced in the first half of the year, it has led to their habitual thinking.
Does this news resonate with the market? Are there signs of a significant downturn in the market?
What is the purpose of appearing at this time? Once you understand the market, you will understand the intentions of the main players.
The rebound before Christmas saw a decline in total open interest for Bitcoin futures, yet the price surged significantly, indicating it was entirely driven by spot trading; it is speculated that large holders will be seen buying a considerable amount of spot BTC during Christmas.
If I say this is the influence of trends, many may dismiss it. Let me look at it from another perspective: perhaps some investors have already accepted the expectation that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates twice in 2025. After all, judging by the market reaction following Powell's speech, Bitcoin's price remains above $100,000, indicating that investors are gradually accepting this outcome.
Additionally, the core PCE data before Christmas may also become a key factor in boosting market sentiment. In terms of support levels, the range from $95,000 to $100,000 remains very solid. In the short term, unless there is a clear negative news event, I do not recommend shorting. In a bull market, while there may be short-term fluctuations, the price recovery is also swift. There should be no doubt that we are currently in a bull market, even if it is just a Bitcoin bull market.
During this period, pay close attention to the performance of ETH and SOL, exchange rates: BTCD, E/B, S/B.
The secondary market shows signs of warming up under the leadership of the grayscale sector zen. Next, we will continue to firmly hold our coins, adopting the strategy of buying small on small dips and buying larger quantities on large dips.
Key cryptocurrencies:
- AVAX: Involves Morgan and grayscale investment.
- Link: Related to Trump, grayscale, and Fidelity.
- Sui: A16z and Coinbase have invested.
- AAVE: Framework, ParaFi Capital, and connections to Trump.
- ENA: BlackRock, Trump, and Dragonfly are involved.
- Pengu: 1KX and Shima Capital have investments.
- ONDO: BlackRock, Trump, and Morgan are involved.
- CRV: Multicoin Capital and BlackRock are among them.
- ZRO: A16z, Multicoin Capital, and CB have invested.
- PUFFER: Fidelity and Electric Capital are involved.
- VELO: BlackRock is involved. The offline meeting in Shenzhen on January 2nd and 3rd will provide valuable investment research information.