O desempenho do mercado de Natal deste ano superou as expectativas. Não houve colapso do mercado. Em vez disso, o aumento das ações dos EUA levou a uma recuperação do sentimento no mercado de criptografia. O Bitcoin já caiu devido às flutuações nas ações dos EUA, mas se o Bitcoin conseguir fechar seus ganhos antes de 25 de dezembro, há uma grande probabilidade de que sobreviva ao Natal com segurança, trazendo sinais positivos para as perspectivas do mercado.
A tendência do Ethereum também transmite sinais de estabilidade. Hoje, uma vez ultrapassou o nível de pressão chave de 3500. Graças ao apoio dos fluxos de fundos ETF, o sentimento do mercado recuperou de forma constante. Após a entrada em janeiro, o foco do mercado se voltará para a liberação do primeiro lote de fundos de compensação FTX no dia 6 de janeiro. Espera-se que mais desses US$ 16 bilhões fluam para o Ethereum e para as principais altcoins, em vez do Bitcoin, porque a atual relação preço/desempenho do Bitcoin é menos atraente para os investidores de varejo.
At the same time, another major event that the market is looking forward to is Trump's official inauguration on January 20. The market is full of expectations for his economic stimulus policies and cryptocurrency strategic reserve plans, which may trigger a new round of market rallies. Therefore, from the perspective of early positioning, FTX concepts, Trump concepts, and Musk concepts are likely to become the core narratives of the market in early January.
The rhythm of altcoin season: opportunities and risks coexist.
For altcoin investors, the evolution of market sentiment and the flow of funds are crucial. Historical experience shows that altcoin markets usually develop in two waves: the first wave is initiated by small market movements after Bitcoin takes its toll, followed by a more significant explosion during heightened sentiment. Currently, Bitcoin has been adjusting at a key position for nearly four weeks, laying the foundation for a potential altcoin explosion.
However, the full arrival of altcoin season requires several important conditions: the stable rise of Bitcoin, the strong performance of Ethereum, and the release of market sentiment. If both Bitcoin and Ethereum experience a pullback, altcoins will face greater adjustment risks. Therefore, investors need to remain patient and should not overly commit too early. The true altcoin season may have to wait until Trump takes office, driven by policy expectations and capital flows to change the market landscape.
U.S. policy expectations and opportunities from Grayscale concepts.
The policy easing expectations brought by Trump's inauguration are another major highlight for the market. Ethereum's next market movement has not yet entered a real rally phase, and its volume increase will become an important signal for market confirmation. Once the market rhythm accelerates, the competition between retail and institutional investors will become more intense, and investors need to overcome fear at the bottom and control greed at the top to seize temporary market peaks.
How to seize opportunities in 2024?
2024 is destined to be a year full of opportunities and challenges. The flow of FTX compensation funds, Trump's policy fulfillment expectations, and the performance of Grayscale concept coins will become important market clues at the beginning of the year. Although adjustments in a bull market environment are difficult to avoid, they also accumulate momentum for subsequent gains.
Investors should closely monitor the following key points:
The price trends and breakout situations of Bitcoin and Ethereum;
The flow of funds in altcoins and changes in market sentiment;
U.S. policies supporting cryptocurrency and the performance of Grayscale holdings.
In the context of increasing market volatility, patience and faith are essential conditions for investment success. Positioning for long-term opportunities while maintaining flexibility in response to adjustments will be the winning strategy for 2024.
Work statement: personal opinion, for reference only.