From the recent price movements, the narrow range oscillation between 3480 and 3500 indicates that the market is in a wait-and-see state (i.e., both bulls and bears have temporarily reached short-term equilibrium). The previous rapid rise may have been due to concentrated capital inflow, followed by high-level consolidation indicating a weakening of bullish strength. However, at this time, the price has already risen above three moving averages, and the yellow 20 moving average has crossed above the blue 60 moving average and the purple 120 moving average, showing a bullish arrangement, bullish.
Technical indicator analysis:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Hourly level: MACD is below the zero axis, with DIF (fast line) and DEA (slow line) diverging downwards, indicating further downside risk for prices in the short term. Daily level: MACD shows a bearish trend, with DIF and DEA remaining negative and widening, indicating overall market weakness.
Popular science: DIF and DEA are the core of MACD, and their direction and position can reflect market trends; downward divergence indicates increased selling pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Hourly level: RSI is close to the neutral zone (54.73), indicating no obvious overbought or oversold signals in the short term. Daily level: RSI is 46.55, close to neutral but below 50, indicating a slightly bearish market sentiment.
Popular science: RSI is usually measured from 0 to 100, with above 70 indicating overbought (price may correct) and below 30 indicating oversold (price may rebound).
EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
The current price is slightly above EMA20 (short-term average), but below EMA60 (medium-term average) and EMA120 (long-term average), indicating that the market still has some support in the short term, but the medium to long-term trend is weak.
Popular science: EMA can respond more quickly to price changes, so EMA20 is often used for short-term signals, while EMA60 and EMA120 are used to confirm medium to long-term trends.
Volume interpretation:
Hourly level: Trading volume is steady, showing a balance of inflows and outflows in the short term, with no obvious signs of intensified bulls vs bears. Daily level: Decreased trading volume reflects a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with investors waiting for clearer trend signals.
Popular science: Trading volume is an important indicator of market participation. Decreasing volume is often accompanied by consolidation, while increasing volume may lead to a trend breakout.
The market is currently in a consolidation state, with potential short-term pullback risks, but there is still some support below. If subsequent trading volume significantly increases along with favorable indicators, prices may face directional choices.
It is recommended to pay attention to the following points:
Key support level: 3480, if broken, further downside risk should be alerted.
Key resistance level: 3500, breaking through may open new upward space.
Volume change: If volume increases on the rise, bulls may regain dominance;
If volume decreases while prices drop, the adjustment may continue.
Medium to long-term trading: Heavy positions in spot can be bought, sell at Trump's pre-peak.
$ETH (spot)
Short-term trading: [Buy/Sell Points]
Buy point one: 3450 USDT (near previous low, supported by EMA120)
Buy point two: 3400 USDT (integer support level, previous swing low)
Long position stop-loss point: 3380 USDT (20 USDT below buy point two, to prevent false breakouts)
Sell point one: 3550 USDT (previous high point resistance, integer level)
Sell point two: 3600 USDT (integer level resistance, further upward space)
Short position stop-loss point: 3625 USDT (25 USDT above sell point two, to prevent false breakouts)
$ETH (contract)