In macro terms, it is nothing more than the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Powell's last speech, and the publicly available dot plot indicating that the rate cut next year will be around two times. However, this can change at any time, and it only means a reduction in the number of rate cuts, not that there will be no cuts at all. From the trends in the US stock market, we can feel that retail investors' trading enthusiasm has returned, and additionally, the People's Bank of China has already cut interest rates, which will inevitably lead to capital outflow.

In the past couple of days, I've seen many discussions on Xiaohongshu about how to buy US stocks. When central banks of major countries lower their interest rates, it leads to capital outflow. It's a very simple logic: money goes where the returns are higher. I believe this point is not difficult to understand.

I think there are no large negative factors on the macro front. An important watershed for the shift from bull to bear was the introduction of policies and major macroeconomic negative factors, such as interest rate hikes. As it stands, no policies have been introduced, and the Federal Reserve is maintaining a stance of interest rate cuts, so I still believe that the bull market is ongoing, and there's no need for everyone to panic too much.

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