Summary: Deep Tide TechFlow
As we approach the end of 2024, 2025 is on the horizon with anticipation.
Amidst the clamor of a bull market, major global crypto institutions are releasing their market outlook for 2025. According to published content, institutions generally believe that 2025 will be a key year for the crypto market: Bitcoin is expected to break the $200,000 mark, crypto assets will further mainstream, and multiple crypto unicorns may go public in the U.S.
Notably, many institutions expect 2025 to mark the peak of this bull market cycle, with inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, traditional financial institutions opening crypto asset allocations, and AI-enabled innovative applications becoming important driving forces for market development.
Let us review the core predictions of major institutions for the 2025 crypto market.
VanEck: The crypto market will reach new highs by the end of 2025, and the NFT market will recover.
The crypto bull market is expected to reach a mid-term peak in Q1 and set new highs by the end of the year;
The U.S. will further embrace Bitcoin through strategic reserves and policy support;
The total value of tokenized securities will surpass $50 billion;
The daily trading settlement volume of stablecoins will reach $300 billion;
The on-chain activities of AI entities will exceed 1 million;
The total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin's second-layer network will reach 100,000 BTC;
Ethereum's blob space fee revenue will reach $1 billion;
DeFi trading volume will set a new high of $4 trillion, with a total locked value reaching $200 billion;
The NFT market is recovering, with annual trading volume reaching $30 billion;
The performance of decentralized application (DApp) tokens is gradually catching up with mainstream public chain tokens.
Bitwise: Bitcoin breaks $200,000, Ethereum breaks $7,000
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will reach all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading prices exceeding $200,000;
The inflow for Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 will exceed that of 2024;
Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the most valuable brokerage in the world, with its stock price exceeding $700 per share;
2025 will be the 'Year of Crypto IPOs', with at least five crypto unicorns going public in the U.S.;
Tokens issued by AI agents will lead a larger-scale meme coin craze than in 2024;
The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double;
Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 index, and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq 100 index, adding crypto exposure to (almost) every American investor's portfolio;
The U.S. Department of Labor will relax guidance on cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans, allowing hundreds of billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets;
With the long-awaited stablecoin legislation passed in the U.S., the scale of stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion;
As Wall Street's acceptance of cryptocurrencies deepens, the value of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) will exceed $50 billion.
Coinbase: The stablecoin market will continue to experience explosive growth
Macro:
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will ease, potentially providing a favorable backdrop for the development of the cryptocurrency market;
The new U.S. Congress will bring a clearer regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry and may introduce a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve';
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will reshape the market ecosystem, and more asset-covered ETFs may appear in the future;
The stablecoin market will continue to experience explosive growth and may expand into global capital flows and commercial payments;
RWA will further optimize the construction and management processes of investment portfolios;
The DeFi ecosystem is expected to recover and further integrate with traditional finance.
Disruption:
Telegram trading bots have become one of the most profitable cryptocurrency applications;
The performance of prediction market platforms far exceeds traditional polls, showcasing the unique advantages of blockchain technology;
Crypto games are transitioning from 'making money' to providing high-quality gaming experiences, lowering the entry barrier for new users;
Decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) are expected to address the challenges of physical resource allocation, but long-term revenue sustainability still needs to be evaluated;
AI applications in the crypto space are constantly exploring, but challenges remain in translating their value into lasting liquidity tokens;
Multi-chain ecosystems may become the main pattern of the future, with their differentiated advantages allowing for co-existence and development;
Improving user experience, including simplifying registration processes, optimizing wallet functions, and enhancing cross-chain experiences, is one of the key factors driving the popularization of crypto technology;
Decentralized identity authentication helps meet regulatory requirements and will become a core element of future on-chain experiences.
Hashed: Asia will become the core engine for blockchain innovation and adoption
Hashed believes that 2025 will mark the true entry of blockchain into a phase of large-scale adoption, with Asia becoming the core engine for blockchain innovation and adoption, and the technology-friendly environment in the Asian market driving innovative consumer experiences;
Stablecoins will further integrate into traditional markets;
Intelligent creators will be able to continuously generate high-quality content, led in the future by intelligent entities (AI AGENTS) that convert user attention into economic value through smart contracts. This mechanism will redistribute profits to token holders, building a self-reinforcing attention economy;
Blockchain can ensure data ownership and provenance tracking while securely using sensitive data with privacy protection, incentivizing data sharing through transparent economic models. Notably mentioned are Zettablock and Story Protocol;
The next wave of growth in blockchain technology will be driven by consumer-centric applications that will make the experience of using crypto technology as simple and smooth as traditional applications;
Telegram and TON's open ecosystem is still in its early stages, with rapid user growth but low activity and retention rates. Compared to WeChat's centralized ecosystem, Telegram and TON face infrastructure deficiencies and need to establish intermediate layers to enhance the platform's scalability and support ecosystem development.
Blockworks: The ICO model will make a comeback, with Base becoming a dark horse
The U.S. will re-emerge as the core center of global cryptocurrency;
More than 10 DeFi protocols will officially launch fee switches, including Uniswap;
DeFi protocols will gradually adopt rehypothecation of customer assets as a new business model;
The Ethereum community's debate on the 'North Star' roadmap will come to a conclusion, ultimately reaffirming a roadmap centered around rollups, with Max's scaling proposal failing to gain sufficient support. This result will bring much-needed cohesion to the Ethereum community and improve overall market sentiment;
The price of ETH tokens is expected to perform strongly;
Solutions based on rollups are still unlikely to achieve significant breakthroughs by 2025;
Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) will gradually become an important part of L2 infrastructure and ultimately become a permanent feature;
The development momentum of Solana will continue in this cycle, but issues will gradually emerge by 2025;
The Firedancer client will officially launch in Q4, at which point Solana's network will achieve a processing capacity of 100,000 TPS;
Solana may adjust its token issuance policy to reduce inflation, while Ethereum will not make similar changes;
Base will become a dark horse in the rollup ecosystem and a major competitor to Solana;
Base will also become the preferred chain for AI agents and other AI applications;
Stablecoins are expected to gradually become the dominant asset on L2 networks, with their number expected to exceed twice that of ETH; the stablecoin market will witness breakthrough growth in the coming year;
More than 5 large fintech companies or traditional financial institutions will launch their own stablecoins in 2025;
More than 10 enterprises (including banks and Web2 giants) will launch their own L2 networks in 2025;
With a large user base and strong brand influence, Robinhood is expected to become one of the dominant forces in the industry by 2025;
Investment opportunities in L1 blockchains still exist and will not disappear in the short term;
The ICO model will make a comeback, but it will not dominate like in 2017;
Crypto companies will see a window for IPOs, but a large-scale listing wave is not expected;
The mainstream trend in 2025 will be the integration of AI and crypto;
The application scenarios for AI will become more diverse, not limited to agents;
TikTok's influence in the crypto space will reach unprecedented heights;
Bitcoin's L2 solutions will still struggle to achieve breakthroughs in 2025.
DeFiprime: Deep integration of DeFi and AI, with the market reaching a cycle peak in 2025
Clarification of the regulatory environment;
DeFi and Web3 may return to the U.S.;
Stablecoins will become the main force in the payment sector;
The market may reach a cycle peak in 2025;
Ethereum will continue to explore new development narratives;
A token craze sweeps Web3;
Focus shifts in crypto infrastructure investment;
Deep integration of DeFi and AI;
New token distribution and fundraising models;
NFT 2.0: Moving towards dynamism and efficiency.
Messari: Base and Solana will continue to dominate DEX market share
The macro environment will provide strong support for crypto assets, with institutional participation deepening and broadening, moving beyond viewing crypto as merely an investment asset to recognizing its potential as a financial infrastructure;
The inflow for Bitcoin ETFs has greatly exceeded expectations, and over time, institutions are likely to slowly become the main drivers of daily BTC price movements;
The Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem will have advantages over Layer 1, facing two value capture paths: token valuation models based on "security demand" and fee capture enhancement through native rollups;
Solana's development is expected to surpass pure speculation application scenarios, possibly leading to a spot Solana ETF, with the AI x Crypto sector continuing to lead innovation in the Solana ecosystem;
Base and Solana will continue to dominate DEX market share;
Prediction markets and RWA will continue to develop;
AI agents may surpass traditional meme coins, becoming a new speculative hotspot;
Mobile applications will become a decisive trend, with Solana continuing to dominate meme coin trading activities;
Exchanges will accelerate the integration of on-chain and off-chain services, and the new government may relax restrictions on listing coins on exchanges.
Framework Co-founder: The fund inflow for Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs will reach the same level
Trump will establish a new global currency framework similar to the Plaza Accord of 1985. This framework will promote a gradual significant depreciation of the dollar, thus facilitating the return of manufacturing to the U.S. while directing liquidity towards U.S. markets and high-risk asset markets like cryptocurrencies;
Major armed conflicts around the world are expected to end in the first half of 2025, ushering in an optimistic era of peace and security;
The inflow of funds into Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs will reach the same level in the second half of 2025, with average daily inflows of $1 billion each. This trend is mainly attributed to the launch of composite ETFs;
Plans for the listing of cryptocurrency ETFs other than Bitcoin and Ethereum will be postponed until 2026;
The combination of gaming and artificial intelligence (AI) will become the vertical field with the highest user volume (MAUs/DAUs), thanks to the significant enhancement of gaming experience and interaction by AI technology;
Memecoins will be segmented into multiple categories, including temporary, AI-driven, factory-produced, and large market cap types, with market differentiation intensifying but competition remaining fierce;
The total fee revenue from decentralized finance (DeFi) will exceed $10 billion in 2025, while the supply of stablecoins is expected to reach $500 billion by the end of the year;
Large banks' assets are starting to be tokenized, a trend that will significantly reduce resource waste in the U.S. financial system and enhance efficiency.
