This year's Christmas did not see the expected market crash; instead, market sentiment has slightly improved, mainly due to the rise in US stocks last night. Previously, the decline in Bitcoin was also influenced by fluctuations in the US stock market, which typically leads to Bitcoin following suit in the early morning or late night after a drop in US stocks.
However, if Bitcoin can close higher before the 25th, it means this year's Christmas will likely pass peacefully, and the market trend will gradually show the expected trajectory before Trump's assumption of office.
Looking at Ethereum, its trend is relatively stable, having temporarily broken through the 3500 resistance level today. The warming of Ethereum is not surprising, as its ETF inflow data shows a positive direction, and the support of funds prevents panic in the market. Friends who have been following Mr. Crab for a long time should be aware of this, so I won't elaborate further. Looking ahead to January, the market narrative leans towards bullish. Firstly, it is expected that around the 6th of the month, FTX will make the first batch of compensations, amounting to about $16 billion. Most of this money will flow back to Ethereum and altcoins, as the compensation targets are retail investors, and at this position, the cost-effectiveness of investing in Bitcoin is not high. Therefore, after receiving compensation funds, victims are likely to choose Ethereum and leading altcoins.
Next, as we all know, Trump will take office on January 20. With the introduction of a series of economic stimulus policies and whether Trump can fulfill expectations for relaxed cryptocurrency policies and Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve for the United States, the market outlook is worth paying attention to. Therefore, from the perspective of early positioning, if there are opportunities in the near future, apart from the FTX concept, the Trump concept and Musk concept will become the main melody of January next year.
When will the altcoin season really come?
In the evolution of market trends, the first wave is usually accompanied by the emergence of small altcoin trends, followed by a brief adjustment before welcoming a second wave of more significant altcoin trends. Currently, this round of trends has lasted three months, and Bitcoin (BTC) has adjusted at the critical position of 100,000, while its market share has also declined. After experiencing about four weeks of fluctuations, the adjustment time is basically in place, laying the foundation for the explosion of altcoins.
There is no need to rush into altcoins; the arrival of the altcoin season depends not only on Bitcoin's performance but also on the full release of sentiment and funds. To achieve a true altcoin season, Bitcoin needs to rise steadily while Ethereum maintains a strong upward momentum. The synergy of these two will be the best driving force for sentiment and funds.
Looking back at November, the slight strength of altcoins was precisely due to the blood-sucking phase of Bitcoin, coupled with Ethereum frequently breaking through resistance levels and stabilizing above 4000. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin's blood-sucking, Ethereum's surge allowed many altcoins to achieve 2-3 times the increase, while some weaker altcoins also rose by over 50%. Therefore, if these conditions are not met, it is difficult for altcoins to fully explode. Reiterating this point is not to undermine everyone's confidence and expectations but to hope that everyone, while looking forward to the altcoin season, remains vigilant against potential downside risks.
Once Bitcoin and Ethereum begin to pull back, altcoins will also face adjustments. Therefore, we should make appropriate preparations based on different stages of the market. The altcoin season will not arrive immediately; the real expectations may change the pattern and capital inflow of altcoins through Trump's remarks after he takes office. Relying solely on the current capital, it is difficult for altcoins to meet everyone's expectations.
Since Trump's election, why has the market experienced a bull market? Why have Ethereum and altcoins risen? I have conducted in-depth analyses from multiple angles, and everyone can review Mr. Crab's previous articles. Currently, Ethereum has not truly entered the pump phase; only when it continues to increase in volume can it be considered a real pump. A genuine pump refers to a simultaneous rise in volume and price, and the upward momentum will be very rapid.
During this cycle, the game between retail investors and whales has been exceptionally fierce. The vast majority of people cannot grasp the brief 1% pump opportunity, and even those who wait often do not know when to exit. Once Ethereum starts to pump, the market rhythm will accelerate rapidly. At the bottom, one needs to overcome fear, while at the top, one must conquer greed. I will notify everyone as soon as possible, and one must be decisive when exiting. Market fluctuations mean huge opportunities. Next year's bull market will be stronger than now, with even more intense volatility; shaking out is an inevitable part of the market. In such a market environment, lacking patience and faith makes it difficult to realize profits.
In addition, recently ZEN has been promoted by Grayscale, so we can also pay attention to altcoins under the Grayscale concept. The US concepts include: XRP, SOL, SUI, LINK, LTC, UNI, while Grayscale's holdings include: ETH, ETC, LTC, BCH, SOL, XLM, ZEN, LINK, ZEC, MANA, LPT, as well as ENA and DOGE.