The 4-hour chart of Ethereum.

Each K-line represents 4 hours, and 6 K-lines indicate 24 hours. The K-line trend of the past few days has shown the victory and defeat of both bulls and bears.

But can you understand these? If not, how do you judge whether the next trend will be up or down?

Many are still waiting for Ethereum to break below 3000 and buy back when it drops to around 2000. But why would the market drop? Is it just because of the previous decline that it must continue to fall?

Therefore, all of this stems from an 'illusion.' Relying on intuition to trade is unsustainable, and occasional successes are merely due to luck.

Why do we often hear such exclamations: 'Oh, this coin has risen really well. I bought it before, it's a pity I sold it.' 'Oh, I sold too early, made 10 points, but missed out on ten times the profit.'

So, why do we always miss out on opportunities to make money? In fact, observing the current market conditions can clarify this.

When the market falls, everyone is always worried about a significant drop; but once it rises, they fear a pullback, always thinking about selling first and buying back when the price drops.

So, the question arises: can you identify the market's top and bottom signals? If you cannot recognize the top signal, why do you fear a drop and choose to sell when the price rises slightly? And why do you think there will be a significant drop when the price falls slightly and choose to wait?

Whenever the market rises sharply, retail investors often feel uneasy because they either sell too early or miss out on opportunities.

In reality, the market has not reached a peak, but due to misunderstandings of the market and fear of losing profits, early selling was chosen. This is the 'inability to earn profits beyond one’s cognitive range.'

Bitcoin's second test, peaking around 99,500 last night. Market divergence remains evident, with bears seeing a sluggish market and bulls trying to catch a falling sword. There's no way around it; the current height, time point, and cycle process are moments of divergence.

In my view, if it doesn't drop below 90,000-92,000, after adjusting for a while, good days in the secondary market will slowly come. If it breaks below, the adjustment time will be extended. Currently, the short-term probability of breaking below is low, and we can start seeking trading opportunities in the secondary market. Bitcoin's short-term pressure is at 99,500, support at 96,500, and the target is 102-104k.

The market dynamics last night were surprising. It's unclear whether altcoins pushed up Bitcoin or Bitcoin drove the performance of altcoins, but that no longer matters. The recovery of market sentiment and confidence has caused Bitcoin to fluctuate around 100,000, while altcoins have already begun to rise.

In recent days, the altcoin market has revolved around the theme of Grayscale's selection, such as ZEN, LPT, and BAT. ZEN's increase is very significant, and related low-market-cap altcoins have also risen, including LPT and BAT. Additionally, there is a trend around the rebound of new coins on Binance, such as MOVE and ME.

The logic of playing altcoins now:

Follow the big funds, find an angle, and the funds will rush up. So I give small fund players an idea: the probability of losing money under the current market is relatively low. Find a target with institutional concepts, go all in, and withdraw after gaining 20 to 30 points. This is more effective than diversifying your funds to buy other targets.

Trump's selected coins: AAVE, ENA, LINK, ETH, ONDO

Trump-related concept coins: RSR, ZRX, COW

Grayscale's selected coins: ETH, ETC, LTC, BCH, SOL, XLM, ZEN, LINK, ZEC, MANA, LPT, FIL, BAT